andrewducker | Interesting Links for 09-05-2024

andrewducker

1. Labour welcomes Tory MP who attempted to interfere with the judge in her husband's sexual assault case: (tags:Labour OhForFucksSake politics UK )
2. SNP appoint forced-birth anti-LGBT politician funded by the religious-right to deputy first minister: (tags:lgbt abortion snp OhForFucksSake )
3. New Strategy Could Lead to Universal, Long-Lasting Flu Shot: (tags:disease vaccine research )
4. The Problems with the 'Live Action' Disney Remakes: (tags:Disney movies OhForFucksSake )
5. Keir Starmer refuses to comment on Natalie Elphicke's remarks about ex-husband's victims: (tags:Labour women OhForFucksSake )
6. The Billion Dollar War for "Bluey" (the most successful TV show that most people have never seen): (tags:TV Disney children video viaSwampers )
7. I hadn't realised that the Eurovision backlash over Israel/Palestine was getting pubs to pull their showings: (tags:eurovision Gaza Israel genocide )
8. Major cities and towns in North America replaced by major cities across the Atlantic by latitude.: (tags:maps Europe USA )
9. A desire for a loud car with a modified muffler is predicted by being a man and higher scores on psychopathy and sadism: (tags:psychology cars noise )
10. Biden warns Israel US will halt weapons supplies if it invades Rafah: (tags:USA Israel Palestine )
11. Five babies have died with whooping cough in England this year as cases soar.: (tags:disease children )

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

From:

original_aj

1, 5 - A political party which welcomes Natalie ELphike and rejects Jeremy Corbin has ceased to be the Labour party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY19-2LRX2s is once again very pertinent.

"Aneurin Bevan, your party is dead
And the time for a new one is nigh
Will the last person Left please turn out the lights?
New Labour, just fuck off and die."

From:

haggis

The whooping cough thing is so sad and scary. If the mother doesn't get the vaccine, there's a window where the baby is too young to be vaccinated themselves and especially vulnerable if they catch it. It's a horrible disease and the suffering is unnecessary if you get vaccinated.

From:

danieldwilliam

Kate Forbes will likely be First Minister in about 18 months.

From:

andrewducker

That's plausible. But she might not be, and almost certainly won't be in 2 years.

From:

danieldwilliam

I think she's probably a 50:50 chance of being First Minister after the next Scottish General Election. Perhaps a little higher.

From:

mountainkiss

Single biggest deciding factor Murrell verdict?

From:

andrewducker

It's a tricky one. Current seat projections from https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/polling-scottish-parliament/

SNP+Greens get 46+10 seats.
Labour+Lib Dems get 40+10.
Conservatives+Reform get 22+1.

Majority is 65.

Scottish Labour used to form local coalitions with the SNP but have been forbidden from doing so.

Greens won't form a coalition with Forbes.

Edinburgh is currently run by Labour supported by Lib Dems and Conservatives. I'd be surprised if Scotland doesn't go the same way.

Which will be enough to put a lot of Scottish people off of Labour for a while. But such is life.

From:

mountainkiss

My thinking - possibly completely wrong - is as follows:

(1) Dan studies polling intensively.

(2) Dan thinks Forbes has "probably a 50:50 chance of being First Minister after the next Scottish General Election. Perhaps a little higher."

(3) Given (1), what might be the reason for (2)?

(4) Most likely reason is the continued support for independence in the polls despite recent travails of the SNP.

(5) This suggests the possibility that he believes that this could well influence a sufficient number of voters that the SNP will still win the largest number of seats at the next election, although this is far from a given.

(6) This makes me wonder what factors he thinks would influence this most significantly.

(7) It seems plausible to me that if I am right about (4) - (6), he might regard the reputation of the SNP as being a deciding factor in this regard. Hence my question.

(8) It is also plausible that I am entirely wrong about all or any of the stages in this chain, which is why it is a question.

Edited Date: 2024-05-09 07:42 pm (UTC)

From:

andrewducker

I'm also interested in what Dan has to say, because I can't currently see it.

From:

andrewducker

Oh, and the SNP will quite possibly win the most seats at the next election. Just not enough to have a majority, or be able to do a deal with anyone who can give them one, particularly if Forbes is in charge.

From:

danieldwilliam

Yeah, long those lines.

I think the Murrell case has a tangential bearing on Forbes prospects but unless there is an active criminal trial during the Scottish General Election campaign I don't think it will impact voting behaviour that much (1)

My base assumptions are

1) The SNP voting intention share is at a historic low (2)

2) approximately 50% (just under) of the Scottish voting population are in favour of Scottish Independence

3) it is exactly two years until newly elected MSPs will take their seats after the next *Scottish* General Election and elect a First Minister

4) There is a UK General Election between now and the next Scottish General Election.

5) The Labour Party will win the next UK General Election by some margin

6) The SNP will lose some, perhaps a few, seats in the UK General Election

7) It is possible to become First Minister and successfully lead a minority government at Holyrood

I think those are probably easy assumptions to go along with.

My thinking from those assumptions.

SNP vote share is down mostly because of government fatigue, somewhat by a lack of progress on independence, partly due to Murrell and a little bit to the impact of the Gender Recognition Bill (not so much the issue itself but the perception that the SNP and the wider nationalist movement is excitably divided on an issue that is considered a fringe issue by voters). That is fixable by making the government appear renewed, doing *something* on independence and shutting up about trans-rights and letting the Conservative Party be themselves in public for the next 6 months.

Forbes as Deputy FM and then FM fixes parts of that. She marks a significant change in strategy for the SNP. I expect her to focus on economic growth in Scotland. Both for itself and as a method to drive support for independence. I also expect her to make some kind of active steps towards achieving independence. She's relatively popular with both SNP members and the public. Particularly she does well with swing voters who might vote SNP.

She will look and sound different. The economy is likely to improve over the next 24 months. She'll take or earn some of the credit for that. If she's canny any good news story features her, any bad news story features Swinney. Swinney explains why the ferries are late, Forbes goes to the launch ceremony when they finally arrive.

The next UK General Election changes some of the mood. Firstly, voter fatigue with the SNP will show up in voters beating up the SNP in the first available election. Which will now be the next UK General Election. Secondly, the Labour Party will be facing the Scottish electorate mid-term. Perhaps 12 or 18 months after winning a UK general election. I don't think that will be a disaster for them necessarily but it might not help. I don't think they will be more popular in Scotland in May 2026 than they currently are.

There will be no more activity on the Gender Recognition Bill or similar. I expect Forbes will have made that a condition of her support. There will be some activity on an independence referendum or a proxy for it or an alternative for it. I would not be surprised if Forbes announced that she considered the next Scottish election to be a de facto referendum with some win conditions that favoured the SNP and disfavoured Alba and the Greens.

(I think the Greens are about to enter in to a period of Green on Watermelon on Rainbow internecine conflict. Fun times ahead, I must work out who I need to vote for and I note that voters do not like divided parties and that Green candidates are directly elected by the membership.)

So my scenario for a Forbes premiership is

Swinney / Forbes inject some pace in to the Scottish government, attempting to increase Scottish economic growth and preparing for some sort of action on independence.

Other factors tend to improve the SNP voting intention share (getting beaten up in the UK General Election, change of governments, Prime and First Ministers, reversion to the mean, Alba fade a little, delivering a ferry or some concrete action on independence.)

8 months out from the next Scottish General Election Swinney steps down, Forbes becomes SNP leader and is either elected First Minister or the Greens *bring down a pro-independence government* (3) and a general election ensues. (4) By the time of that Scottish General Election Forbes has shifted the focus of the electorate to economic issues (which is what the electorate wants government to focus on) and to independence (which SNP members, supporters and voters want the government to focus on). The SNP win enough seats to get first choice at forming a government. The Greens can either vote for Forbes, abstain, or vote to *bring down a pro-independence government* (5) / vote to watch Forbes do a minority government deal with fiscal conservatives on the opposition benches.

Key question for me remains how many Green voters are actually tactically savvy SNP-leaning independence supporters. Some, but how many? And where do they go if not the Greens?

Forbes failure state here over the next year is that any shenanigans occurring she takes off and nukes it from orbit. She's young enough that she can demand expulsions and that failing orchestrate the torpedoing of her own government by her own back-benchers and then lead the SNP from opposition in to government in 2031.

(1) absent some extraordinary revelations relating to the matter e.g. coming out in a potential court case.

(2) recent history

(3) I mean they might do it, that fucking moron Greer appears to be in charge of strategy and he thinks Machiavelli is a flavour of ice cream.

(4) NB the provisions of S3 (3)

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/3

https://spice-spotlight.scot/2024/04/29/explainer-motions-of-no-confidence-and-what-happens-when-a-first-minister-resigns/

(5) which they might do, assuming that fucking moron Greer is still an MSP and still likes ice cream.

From:

andrewducker

You are already right on one point and wrong on another:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14kykvgle1o
and
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c97zv90d77do

From:

danieldwilliam

I think the phrase "remains committed to" is politician for "I will not actually do anything about this."

From:

andrewducker

Oh yes. I read that as more about reassurance than a "And I will go out and start a new court case that has no chance of doing anything."

From:

danieldwilliam

"Please remember that when you see me doing nothing about this, I remain committed to the idea of doing something about it when the situation is more favourable."

I think we'll hear little more about this issue after this.

From:

andrewducker

I do agree that once Labour are actually in power people will get pretty disappointed relatively quickly. I'm not sure that 18 months is long enough for that, but it might be, depending on how dissappointing they are!

From:

danieldwilliam

I'm not sure they need to get disappointed with the Labour Party for it to make a significant difference to the SNP's electoral prospects. Just the difference between not being the government and being the government is probably enough to shift a few voters one way or the other.

There is, of course, the chance that the incoming Labour government is a blessed trifecta of lucky, right and engaging and people like the new government and decide to vote postively for Labour in the 2026 General Election.

From:

andrewducker

This is plausible.

Of course, they'll have to be those things both for ex-Conservative voters in Dover, and for ex-SNP voters in Glasgow. That will be a fun one for them to have a go at.

From:

danieldwilliam

There are genuinely many many things the Labour Party can do in office that would keep both sets of voter onside.

Not being Rishi Sunak.

Imprisoning Michelle Mone etc.

Quietly doing something *effective* about irregular and dangerous migration across the Channel

Trying to do something to grow the UK economy.

It'll become harder later on.

But also, the trick to managing broad and heterogenous coalitions of voters is to stick firmly to those issues that they all agree are important and all agree on the solution and on which you can make progress and to avoid talking about anything else.

From:

andrewducker

"But also, the trick to managing broad and heterogenous coalitions of voters is to stick firmly to those issues that they all agree are important and all agree on the solution and on which you can make progress and to avoid talking about anything else."

That's great until someone else starts talking about the anything else, and prodding you about it in public. At which point you go ah, um a lot. As happened to Forbes yesterday when interviewed about gay rights. How much support they lose over that kind of thing will be interesting to see. People can always shift over to The Greens, after all.

And yes, I think that Labour can get a lot of traction for the first couple of years just by not being as appallingly incompetent as the Conservatives. And can probably get a bounce at the following election using the method I outlined a few days ago. But, as seen with the Blair administration, once you've got a functional economy people tend to disagree about the rest of things, and the disagreements set in, and you start losing voters to other parties.

From:

danieldwilliam

"Look, the voters are not interested in prodding people in public or hearing them say um a lot. Those are not the priorities of the Great British People or this Labour Government. This Labour Government has a laser like focus on the issues that do matter to the Great British People. Issues like Those Things They All or Things We are Good At. That is what matter to the Great British People and that is what matters to this Labour Government."

More seriously, the government have the advantage of setting the agenda, literally, for lots of the debate. If you've brought in legislation for a bunch of issues it's difficult for the opposition to shift focus to other issues. Not impossible but difficult. It's one of the reasons being Opposition sucks. No one cares what you think about opposition issues. They barely care what you think about government issues.

From:

andrewducker

This is true up to a point. But I remember the debacle over the repeated questions to Tim Farron over whether gay people were sinners.

From:

mountainkiss

Forbes will need to have learned the lessons of the previous leadership campaign if this is to work, though. She needs to be able to put her personal beliefs to one side and she needs to become more of an SNP unity candidate rather than playing to her base. Not sure if she can do that? (genuinely unsure either way).

From:

danieldwilliam

Yes, that and I agree with Andrew's comment about the problem Tim Farron got himself in to.

From:

andrewducker

To be 100% clear, if Forbes can really act as a unity candidate and work through the questions in a way that makes it clear that she is doing that then I will be absolutely delighted.

It doesn't seem very likely to me right now, but I will be very happy if I am surprised.

From:

danieldwilliam

It would be a good thing for the country I think if Forbes were successful at this. She's one of the few Scottish politicians who has a focus on growing the economy rather than spending devolved budgets and both the country and the independence movement would benefit from the Scottish economy growing faster over the long term.

I also think that the political plan of trying to persuade Scots to vote for independence so that the economy will grow faster and / or in a more equitable way has probably run its course. Gut feel is that to move from 45%+ support to 55%+ support for independence people will need to see Scotland's growth rate at least equal England's or if not the growth rate some of the leading indicators like new business creation rates, inward investment and so on.

I think Forbes position of personally disagreeing with aspects of social policy that are settled but not making any moves to change those policy areas is one folks should be able to live with.

People are obviously entitled to decide which policy areas are priorities for them and what and who they are prepared to trade to advance their own policy interests or rights-based activism but for me a focus on economic growth to the benefit of the the one in ten people who are still living in significant poverty in Scotland is a bit overdue.

I also think it would be a mistake for the more progressive end of the policy debate to take an ultra-purist approach on this. There is a risk that they discover that positions that they believe are settled turn out not to be that settled or that enough people have different top priorities to them and are prepared to make different compromises and trades. If people who disagree with social progressives are unable to play any meaningful role in politics alongside social progressives whilst holding but not acting on socially conservative views those people may as well make different friends and try and test the nation to see if the nation is prepared to make social progressiveness a priority issue or would pick social conservativism. I gi e you the modern Republican Party in the USA as an example And I think that Scotland, some parts of it in particular, might turn out to be more socially conservative than we appreciate.

From:

andrewducker

"I think Forbes position of personally disagreeing with aspects of social policy that are settled but not making any moves to change those policy areas is one folks should be able to live with."

I'd be nervous about this, but prepared to give her a chance. The next couple of years should give us space to see how that goes.

The lovely thing about PR, of course, is that there's space for multiple parties that can then work together on some issues and not on others. And if the progressive end head off for the Green Party that wouldn't hurt anyone too badly.

(I do agree that there's space for people to work together on some things while disagreeing loudly on others. And I'm fine with that.)

From:

danieldwilliam

The lovely thing about PR, of course, is that there's space for multiple parties that can then work together on some issues and not on others.

Yes, but I sometimes think the way the independence issue shapes party politics in Scotland interacts with the MMP system we use to elect MSPs limits the scope for political parties to differentiate themselves enough along other axis.

I'd rather we used STV in large constituencies so we could favour or not individual candidates more easily,

From:

andrewducker

Open lists would, of course, solve similar issues.

From:

danieldwilliam

They would - al though I think Australia has had some unhappy experiences with them becoming too unwieldy for practical use.

From:

andrewducker

Definitely an issue where if you're electing 10 people and you've got 10 parties, you might well have 40-50 people to think about.

(Although I doubt I'd care that much about that many of them.)

From:

andrewducker

Oh, and it feels very much that being attached to the political system in England, and thus to FPTP is affecting things badly. Scottish Labour suddenly ruling out working with the SNP at the orders of the English party has not been a positive step.

From:

symbioid

Oh man the Kate Forbes news is awful. Humza Yousef really screwed the party with the anti-Green push, no?
Sturgeon wasn't perfect, but it feels (as an outsider) like she was probably the best leader they had (I mean Salmond did a good job getting the movement to the fore, but the Alba thing is just egotistical crap, I think). It feels all very much downhill and reactionary from here, am I wrong? So sorry that's the way this is ending up for you guys :(

From:

andrewducker

I feel the same. Although clearly there was some dodgy stuff going on somewhere. It's a shame how it fell apart.

From:

ninetydegrees

I've heard of Bluey and I don't have kids! I'm glad it's gotten the success fans say it deserves. Kids and parents also deserve quality media which showcase inclusivity and intelligent discourse unlike I dunno... most Disney movies for example XD

From:

poshmerchant

Major cities and towns in North America replaced by major cities across the Atlantic by latitude.

That map is pretty generous with its definition of major city. Moscow is overlaid with Thompson, Manitoba which is a town of 13,000 and the 7th largest community in Manitoba. The most you can say for Thompson is that it does have a road connection to the rest of Manitoba, unlike some of the other communities of that size in Manitoba.

The closest to a populous place at that latitude is probably Fort McMurray, Alberta with 66,000 people which the map generously assigned to my old hometown of Riga.

Edited Date: 2024-05-10 08:58 pm (UTC)

From:

melchar

Live action Disney remakes have been terrible! They let Disney extend their ownership of the title which more than pays for the movie cost. Any audience paying to see the trainwrecks is gravy. IMO Second Wind was FAR too generous with the commentary.

That said, Second Wind is a wonderful group. I'm glad they survived & have thrived after the escape from 'The Escapist' kerfluffle.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

Profile

andrewducker

My NotZen Website

June 2025

S	M	T	W	T	F	S
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
8	9	10	11	12	13	14
15	16	17	18	19	20	21
22	23	24	25	26	27	28
29	30

Page Summary

Active Entries

Style Credit

Style: Neutral Good for Practicality by timeasmymeasure

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags

Page generated Jun. 6th, 2025 01:42 pm