Labour and the EU, a prediction

[andrewducker]

I keep meaning to make this as a prediction, for 4/5 years from now, so I'm getting it down now:

Labour are running this election on the basis of "Making Brexit work - no returning to the EU".

They will continue to do this for 3-4 years, so they can't be accused of being closet Remain, and then say "Sorry, we tried our best, but while we're outside of the major trading area on our doorstep our economy is fucked."

And then they will fight the *next* election on the basis of rejoining as much of the trade area as they can.

This will pull in a bunch of voters who are fed up with Labour but are strongly in favour of the EU.

Comments

[matgb]

Yup, they're scared of losing or keeping lost the "red wall" that the Tories have either lost already or will keep due to demographics anyway

For them it's the only approach, attack the Tories on the issue for shit deals and otherwise keep quiet, because it'll be a dead issue soon anyway, the demographics strongly favour joining at least the single market very quickly, but they'll need to be brave on immigration to actually get to that

[mountainkiss]

During this period there will be significant further breakdown in service provision, which could change the calculus in immigration discourse. The care sector is the obvious example but I suspect there are many more. (I don’t think it’s straightforward. But I do think the pressure could increase from a number of angles.)

[andrewducker]

The polls very much make it look like the public are now anti-Brexit. But I can understand their nervousness, frustrating though it is.

[armiphlage]

Of course, per the Maastricht Treaty, they'll REALLY need to join the EU this time, no opting-out of the Agreement on Social Policy or adopting the Euro. Which will make some people even more eager to join, while others even more eager to stay separate.

[andrewducker]

I strongly suspect it'll be the EEA first. If nothing else because the EU won't want us back that fast.

[hairyears]

Yes, and the continuing influence of UKIP in England’s media and right-wing politics is seen as an insurmountable obstacle in European governments...

And,I suspect, in the Parliamentary Labour Party.