Very cool, if true

Yeah, long those lines.

I think the Murrell case has a tangential bearing on Forbes prospects but unless there is an active criminal trial during the Scottish General Election campaign I don't think it will impact voting behaviour that much (1)

My base assumptions are

1) The SNP voting intention share is at a historic low (2)

2) approximately 50% (just under) of the Scottish voting population are in favour of Scottish Independence

3) it is exactly two years until newly elected MSPs will take their seats after the next *Scottish* General Election and elect a First Minister

4) There is a UK General Election between now and the next Scottish General Election.

5) The Labour Party will win the next UK General Election by some margin

6) The SNP will lose some, perhaps a few, seats in the UK General Election

7) It is possible to become First Minister and successfully lead a minority government at Holyrood

I think those are probably easy assumptions to go along with.

My thinking from those assumptions.

SNP vote share is down mostly because of government fatigue, somewhat by a lack of progress on independence, partly due to Murrell and a little bit to the impact of the Gender Recognition Bill (not so much the issue itself but the perception that the SNP and the wider nationalist movement is excitably divided on an issue that is considered a fringe issue by voters). That is fixable by making the government appear renewed, doing *something* on independence and shutting up about trans-rights and letting the Conservative Party be themselves in public for the next 6 months.

Forbes as Deputy FM and then FM fixes parts of that. She marks a significant change in strategy for the SNP. I expect her to focus on economic growth in Scotland. Both for itself and as a method to drive support for independence. I also expect her to make some kind of active steps towards achieving independence. She's relatively popular with both SNP members and the public. Particularly she does well with swing voters who might vote SNP.

She will look and sound different. The economy is likely to improve over the next 24 months. She'll take or earn some of the credit for that. If she's canny any good news story features her, any bad news story features Swinney. Swinney explains why the ferries are late, Forbes goes to the launch ceremony when they finally arrive.

The next UK General Election changes some of the mood. Firstly, voter fatigue with the SNP will show up in voters beating up the SNP in the first available election. Which will now be the next UK General Election. Secondly, the Labour Party will be facing the Scottish electorate mid-term. Perhaps 12 or 18 months after winning a UK general election. I don't think that will be a disaster for them necessarily but it might not help. I don't think they will be more popular in Scotland in May 2026 than they currently are.

There will be no more activity on the Gender Recognition Bill or similar. I expect Forbes will have made that a condition of her support. There will be some activity on an independence referendum or a proxy for it or an alternative for it. I would not be surprised if Forbes announced that she considered the next Scottish election to be a de facto referendum with some win conditions that favoured the SNP and disfavoured Alba and the Greens.

(I think the Greens are about to enter in to a period of Green on Watermelon on Rainbow internecine conflict. Fun times ahead, I must work out who I need to vote for and I note that voters do not like divided parties and that Green candidates are directly elected by the membership.)

So my scenario for a Forbes premiership is

Swinney / Forbes inject some pace in to the Scottish government, attempting to increase Scottish economic growth and preparing for some sort of action on independence.

Other factors tend to improve the SNP voting intention share (getting beaten up in the UK General Election, change of governments, Prime and First Ministers, reversion to the mean, Alba fade a little, delivering a ferry or some concrete action on independence.)

8 months out from the next Scottish General Election Swinney steps down, Forbes becomes SNP leader and is either elected First Minister or the Greens *bring down a pro-independence government* (3) and a general election ensues. (4) By the time of that Scottish General Election Forbes has shifted the focus of the electorate to economic issues (which is what the electorate wants government to focus on) and to independence (which SNP members, supporters and voters want the government to focus on). The SNP win enough seats to get first choice at forming a government. The Greens can either vote for Forbes, abstain, or vote to *bring down a pro-independence government* (5) / vote to watch Forbes do a minority government deal with fiscal conservatives on the opposition benches.

Key question for me remains how many Green voters are actually tactically savvy SNP-leaning independence supporters. Some, but how many? And where do they go if not the Greens?

Forbes failure state here over the next year is that any shenanigans occurring she takes off and nukes it from orbit. She's young enough that she can demand expulsions and that failing orchestrate the torpedoing of her own government by her own back-benchers and then lead the SNP from opposition in to government in 2031.

(1) absent some extraordinary revelations relating to the matter e.g. coming out in a potential court case.

(2) recent history

(3) I mean they might do it, that fucking moron Greer appears to be in charge of strategy and he thinks Machiavelli is a flavour of ice cream.

(4) NB the provisions of S3 (3)

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/3

https://spice-spotlight.scot/2024/04/29/explainer-motions-of-no-confidence-and-what-happens-when-a-first-minister-resigns/

(5) which they might do, assuming that fucking moron Greer is still an MSP and still likes ice cream.