Date: 2011-11-02 02:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Perhaps we should ask the Chinese to give human rights, democracy, unionisation rights and a higher minimum wage to their citizens.

That would probably help us out quite a bit on the offshoring jobs front.

Date: 2011-11-02 04:57 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
Presumably at some point there will be a tipping point where transport costs and rising wages in China make it more economical to produce more goods at home.

I read something a while ago that said 2018 was likely to be a tipping point for the States, where lowering wages and mass unemployment in particular some of the middle states, would make 'Made In Alabama' cheaper for mega corporations, than Made In China, and thus more things would start to be made in America again.

Date: 2011-11-02 05:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Yeah, rising wages, transport costs (watch out for the upgrade to the Panama canal) and also the appreciation of the yuan.

I think the Chinese have a bit of a demographic problem after a few generations of a one child policy. At some point the bulge of old people will want to retire and spend their money on pensions and health care. This will leave the Chinese with a labour shortage (sounds crazy but there you go) and want their money back so they can swap it for goods and services both domestic and imported.

A thing to watch is the relative increases in labour rates and labour quality. A former boss of mine used to tell me about the failure of their Eastern Europe offshoring plan, in part because, the Romanian workers lower wages didn’t make up for the costs of their defective production and they couldn’t narrow the gap quickly enough.

Date: 2011-11-02 05:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
It's sort of a gamble with China, as to which long term problem they're going to come a cropper with first. The lending problem. The ageing population problem. The environmental problem. The end of cheap oil problem. The soil exhaustion problem... I do have a sneaking suspicion that those that predict China is the worlds next superpower, are failing to take into account some of the pressures.

Interesting the Romania thing didn't work out. I had wondered why more stuff wasn't getting made in Eastern Europe.

Date: 2011-11-03 10:17 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I've never spoken to anyone or read of anyone who has tried to offshore skilled work who has not had some difficulty.

Not to say that all attempts have or will fail but the difficulties seem to often errode any advantage.

Date: 2011-11-03 10:22 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
What did you reckon to success and smoothness of the offshoring you were recently involved in?

Date: 2011-11-03 10:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Coolio - I shall do so as soon as mutually convenient.

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