Date: 2011-11-02 11:13 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] artkouros.livejournal.com
I've always wondered what marsupial people would look like. Just think how handy a pouch would be.

Date: 2011-11-02 12:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
Does anyone see any realistic endgame for Greece other than pulling out of the Euro and printing Drachmas?

Date: 2011-11-02 01:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
I can't see the governments of Germany or any of the Scandinavian countries going along with that. And I don't think the Greek people would put up with their country being run by central Europe either.

Date: 2011-11-02 01:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
It's pretty clear how they'll vote.

Would you vote to cut your own paycheck, destroy the union you belong to and ensure mass layoffs of your friends and family members?

Date: 2011-11-02 01:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-pawson.livejournal.com
The government of Germany may go along with it but I doubt the people of Germany will. It would effectively mean German (and other Eurozone) taxpayers subsidising the Greeks.

Date: 2011-11-02 01:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
Right, which is why it won't happen. Nobody could get re-elected if they went along with it.

Date: 2011-11-02 01:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
No, I can't. And surely that scenario results in Weimar-esque runaway inflation for them. Because the only way the country would be able to afford to continue running would be if the Greeks just keep printing more and more Drachmas.

So I imagine in 5 years time, Greece has a military dictatorship.

Date: 2011-11-02 01:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
Greece was actually doing better the last time they had a military dictatorship.

Date: 2011-11-02 01:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
It wasn't that long ago either was it?

Date: 2011-11-02 01:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bart-calendar.livejournal.com
It didn't end until 1974.

Date: 2011-11-02 02:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I wonder what the odds are of significant social disharmony in China a few years after Greece defaults.

We appear to owe them a lot of money which they have saved for their old age. They also appear to have a whole huge economy pretty much dedicated to making things to sell to us for money we’ve borrowed from them.

I wonder what they’ll do if we turn round and say “sorry, we’ve spent all your money on iPhones and nuclear bombs and we can’t afford any more of your nice stuff thanks”.

I’m sure they’ll muddle through but I wouldn’t fancy being a factory worker in China with no pension, health care or unemployment benefits.

Date: 2011-11-02 02:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
The thing that strikes me about China is they now seem to have just leant too much money to us, so they're in the same sort of situation that Greece is in with regards the French and German banks, the risk of them defaulting is so great, that all of the power now resides with the Greeks.

And the Chinese situation must be that times a hundred. They just can't afford for the West to go bankrupt, even though I think we technically are.

Who knew we were borrowing so much money eh.

Date: 2011-11-02 02:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Perhaps we should ask the Chinese to give human rights, democracy, unionisation rights and a higher minimum wage to their citizens.

That would probably help us out quite a bit on the offshoring jobs front.

Date: 2011-11-02 04:57 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
Presumably at some point there will be a tipping point where transport costs and rising wages in China make it more economical to produce more goods at home.

I read something a while ago that said 2018 was likely to be a tipping point for the States, where lowering wages and mass unemployment in particular some of the middle states, would make 'Made In Alabama' cheaper for mega corporations, than Made In China, and thus more things would start to be made in America again.

Date: 2011-11-02 05:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Yeah, rising wages, transport costs (watch out for the upgrade to the Panama canal) and also the appreciation of the yuan.

I think the Chinese have a bit of a demographic problem after a few generations of a one child policy. At some point the bulge of old people will want to retire and spend their money on pensions and health care. This will leave the Chinese with a labour shortage (sounds crazy but there you go) and want their money back so they can swap it for goods and services both domestic and imported.

A thing to watch is the relative increases in labour rates and labour quality. A former boss of mine used to tell me about the failure of their Eastern Europe offshoring plan, in part because, the Romanian workers lower wages didn’t make up for the costs of their defective production and they couldn’t narrow the gap quickly enough.

Date: 2011-11-02 05:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gonzo21.livejournal.com
It's sort of a gamble with China, as to which long term problem they're going to come a cropper with first. The lending problem. The ageing population problem. The environmental problem. The end of cheap oil problem. The soil exhaustion problem... I do have a sneaking suspicion that those that predict China is the worlds next superpower, are failing to take into account some of the pressures.

Interesting the Romania thing didn't work out. I had wondered why more stuff wasn't getting made in Eastern Europe.

Date: 2011-11-03 10:17 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I've never spoken to anyone or read of anyone who has tried to offshore skilled work who has not had some difficulty.

Not to say that all attempts have or will fail but the difficulties seem to often errode any advantage.

Date: 2011-11-03 10:22 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
What did you reckon to success and smoothness of the offshoring you were recently involved in?

Date: 2011-11-03 10:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Coolio - I shall do so as soon as mutually convenient.

Date: 2011-11-02 02:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Only with great difficulty.

Great to the point of impossibility.

It’s the old adage. If you owe a bank £100k you have a problem. If you owe a bank £100m they have a problem. If you owe a bank £100bn then everybody has a problem. I think the most likely outcome is for a significant Greek default followed by Greece leaving the eurozone and possibly taking a few of the flakier economies with it so they can devalue away to their heart’s content.

I’ve thought for a long long time that trying to join up a bunch of southern european sunshine economies, eastern european former communist with the more muscular economies of western europe was a big ask. I’d hoped that we’d have a bit longer for all these economies to integrate and for productivity to even out a little and competitive advangates to be found but alas, we’ve been caught mid-reconfiguration.

The Italians I think have struggled to intergrate their North and South (I always smile when I picture Victor Immanuel and Cavour so very graciously accepting from Garibaldi control of Naples and Sicily.

Date: 2011-11-02 03:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
re: hormone shot nastiness - Yet more evil from this sh*t. I was on it for 10 years. I had a shit-hot memory to start with thankfully. I don't now know if my very very slight placename/[famous] person's name issue is normal or induced... (i.e. my recall for those items is no longer instant in 100% of cases, down to maybe 99.5%). My blood pressure went fine after I got off it, sex drive came back about 8-9 months later. Bone density - no-one's commented about it on the couple of x-rays over the past 2 years, and apparently they do, so maybe lucked out there.

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