Political Question

[andrewducker]

At the moment the House of Lords are debating the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill.

I've heard numerous claims that this bill is incredibly unfair, and blatant gerrymandering by the Conservative Party.

Looking at the details, I'm feeling baffled. I can see a claim that the exemption for the three Scottish constituencies (Two Liberal Democrat, on Scottish National Party) are biased in their favour. But I can't see how a system whereby people are grouped together in what's going to be a massively arbitrary manner (each area must be within 5% of the national average, and are set up by independent bodies - the Boundary Commissions).

I don't really have a stake in this one - I'd just like someone to explain how this system would give an advantage to any one party. I can see that it could _remove_ advantage from a party if the old system with much less equal constituency sizes gave that party an advantage, but I'm totally failing to see how it's anything like gerrymandering.

Am I missing something obvious?

Comments

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

And at a slight tangent, this is where I have a problem. It all sounds so complicated, I have no real grasp on what the different systems mean, in real terms. And I consider myself pretty well informed on political matters.

Gods only know how Joe Bloggs on the street thinks and feels about it.

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

Well, the simple answer is that we've only got a choice between two systems in the referendum anyway. I (and the Lib Dems) may prefer STV, Andrew (and the Greens) may prefer AMS, Roz (and Labour reformists) may prefer AV+, but we've all got to choose between just AV and FPTP. And AV itself is a very, very simple system - see my explanation at http://andrewhickey.info/2010/08/22/the-alternative-vote-system

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Right, so it's not the best system, but it's the best we're ever likely to get?

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

The best we can get through a parliament elected by FPTP, at least. I have hopes that within fifteen years we'll have a better system, but even if not we'll be better off with AV.

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

And I suppose it would have to go some to be any worse than the stupid system we have now.

[andrewducker]

Well, not ever. But the best we're being offered this time around.

[skington.livejournal.com]

AV is basically the way the French do it: a majoritarian system, but if nobody gets 50% of the vote at first you eliminate candidates until someone does. The French do it by having a first ballot one weekend, and then another the week (or is it fortnight?) after with only 2 (or in some cases 3 or 4) candidates; AV does it by having people rank candidates in order.

The advantage of moving to AV is that in a few elections' time, once people have got used to voting for candidates 1, 2, 3 rather than putting a cross in a box, you can then move to a more efficient form of voting (e.g. STV in multi-member constituencies). And, of course, once the LibDems have got over the drubbing expected for any junior coalition partner, they'll be in a stronger position to have significant numbers of MPs elected.

Meanwhile the Tories don't have to worry about UKIP costing them seats by splitting the right-wing vote. Assuming they can't convert the LibDems into a long-term junior coalition partner, that is.

[pete stevens (from livejournal.com)]

AV is basically the way the French do it:

there goes any hope of anyone in the Conservative party, UKIP or the BNP voting in favour of it then...

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

Actually, amazingly enough, Racist UKIP are supporters of the Yes campaign. The BNP and Tories are, though, the only two parties that have actually come out against it, though Labour are doing everything they can to stop us ever getting to have a vote...

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Oh, I should think if the tories are deadset on this potentially catastrophic NHS reform, then they'll have difficulty holding into the LIbDems as even short-term junior coalition partners...