A few thoughts on what could happen next for Boris Johnson

[andrewducker]

He won the VONC. This is what I wanted, and what I predicted a few days ago when I said, over on Twitter and Facebook: Funniest outcome: enough letters go in to have a No Confidence vote against Johnson, he then wins it, and then the Conservatives catastrophically lose the two by-elections.

So, next steps are to lose the two by-elections 1 and 2 on the 23rd of June (or, at the least, suffer massive swings).

But before that we have a more interesting one - an upcoming vote on breaking international law on the Northern Ireland Protocol. 148 Conservative MPs voted against him in the no-confidence vote. It needs only 40 to do so on this bill (which is remarkably contentious) and he can't pass it.

At which point, last time around, he called a general election. Doing so again, and winning it, would absolutely cement him back into power.

The big question is - would he win it? It doesn't look like it, but Johnson might take the risk...

(My preferred outcome would be a Labour government dependent on the Lib Dems and SNP to pass things, with both of them insisting on electoral reform as essential.)

Comments

[andrewducker]

I'm not *so* convinced by Tiverton/Honiton. It's a massive change, and it requires a lot of Labour voters to switch to the Lib Dems, who were in third place at the last election. Wakefield seems a lot more likely. But one can hope!

If the Labour party had a really charismatic person in the leadership then I'd expect a whitewash. Sadly for them they've got someone who nobody actually seems to care about, who is doing well purely because he's not Boris Johnson.

Agreed on a snap general election.

And yes, I very much worry about them being fools of the worst kind.

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure that Starmer is doing well just because he isn't Boris Johnson. He has some qualities that people often value in their leaders. Those qualities have gone a bit out of style in recent, more media-savvy decades, and perhaps people assumed they were implicit in being a British politician, and people are perhaps noticing that they miss and value those qualities when they see them lacking in Johnson and those around him.

[andrewducker]

What kind of thing are you thinking of?

Most of the ones I can think of are fairly obvious like "Isn't a massive liar". (Although he's already broken most of the pledges he made when he stood for Labour leadership, from my understanding)

[danieldwilliam]

Well, not being a massive liar is one. Along with not being so bald faced a liar that it is obvious he doesn't care if you believe him or not.

Solid, dependable, measured, considered, thoughtful, honest, hard-working, ethical, honourable - that sort of thing.

Along with being able to have a plan that goes further forward than the next time he is asked a difficult question and which survives contact with reality best out of three.

[danieldwilliam]

I'm told that he reminds some people of Clement Attlee.

[andrewducker]

I'm totally in favour of that kind of thing, which is why I'm unnerved by how much Starmer has changed direction "because of circumstances"

This kind of thing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/31/boris-johnson-dishonesty-keir-starmer-labour-abandoned-pledges

Which is clearly much less bad than Johnson, but still not at a level I'd like.