Interesting Links for 16-03-2020

[andrewducker]

Different countries amuse themselves under quarantine

(tags:countries music sport disease )

Opinion polls on the government's handling of the Coronavirus

(tags:polls UK disease )

Trump offers 'large sums' for exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine

(tags:USA vaccine disease OhForFucksSake Germany )

A Note Regarding the Coronavirus Outbreak From Your University's Vice President of Academic Affairs

(tags:academia satire death disease )

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

(tags:UK disease )

Clearly the finest instrument of all time

(tags:music movies wtf video )

99.7% of short-term lets in Edinburgh are illegal

(tags:rental Scotland law Edinburgh )

On the testing of Coronavirus

(tags:disease testing )

SARS immunity lasted two years

(tags:immune_system disease )

Reminder that any Coronavirus vaccine will take 12-18 months to reach production

(tags:vaccine disease )

"I'm not sure there is such a thing as an acceptable solution to (COVID 19)"

(tags:disease doom )

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

(tags:Scotland ViaDrCross disease )

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

If the coronavirus doesn't confer longer-term immunity then there is a significant problem. You basically get a situation where the virus rolls around the planet until we have a vacine, a cure or everyone who is going to die of it has died.

I'm thinking that we might get 3 near universal outbreaks over a five year period with a net mortality rate of 2% each time for a global mortality rate of 6% before we get a complete handle on the new disease. That sounds really, really unsettling.

[andrewducker]

Yes.

It would definitely require enough of us to get it that it can't transmit any more before the immunity wears off.

Or everyone on the planet to stay 100% inside for a month.

[danieldwilliam]

Yes, in the scenario that I'm thinking about, where the immunity lasts about 6 months, then we'd all have to have it all at the same time (which implies a higher mortality rate) or stay completely isolated for a month or two.

I think the staying isolated for a few months probably kills more people.

[dewline]

Seems like the vaccine research is moving at maximum speed based on reports from University of Saskatchewan, Sunnybrook Research Institute and other lab sites. Wishing them the best of hunting, otherwise I don't like that 2-6 % global mortality...

[danieldwilliam]

I've been trying to think why it wouldn't be around that 2%-6% but if immunity for most people only lasts six months I don't really see how the disease doesn't just re-appear every 12-18 months until we have vaccine and keeps kills lots of people until the most susceptable people are dead.

I'm sure the vaccine people are working on it as much as they can. I understand that the virus isn't mutating much which I think is a good sign - easier to hit a stationery target.

[andrewducker]

Coronavirus mutation rates are apparently quite low. It's indicative that we only have one of these outbreaks every ten years or so (SARS in 2002, MERS in 2012).

Six months seems low. SARS immunity was about two years. Which wouldn't be nearly as catastrophic.

[danieldwilliam]

I think six months is at the low end of the estimates I've seen - so a feasible but unlikely outcome.

[nancylebov]

"everyone who is going to die of it has died."

There are still going to be people becoming older and/or sicker. Also, we might be seeing an end to transplant operations.

COVID-19 tracking map

[anna_wing]

I find this quite informative:

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html?cid=covid19map_desktop-banner_24022020_cna

Re: COVID-19 tracking map

[andrewducker]

Thank you!

[anna_wing]

Friends and relatives in Australia report that they have avoided the problem of hordes of potentially violent and infectious panic-buyers in supermarkets by shopping peacefully in their local Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian groceries, where so far fist-fights over the last toilet-roll have not occurred. My aunt has also not reported issues with her local Iranian pastry shop.

[andrewducker]

And you can buy *really* big bags of rice!

[anna_wing]

And many more kinds, too.

[anef]

Yes, although Sainsbury's has been completely stripped of pasta and mostly of tins of beans, tomatoes etc, my local Italian deli has plenty in stock. (Don't all rush.)