andrewducker: (Default)
[personal profile] andrewducker

Date: 2018-03-27 02:53 pm (UTC)
alithea: Artwork of Francine from Strangers in Paradise, top half only with hair and scarf blowing in the wind (Warrior River (made by brokenharlequin))
From: [personal profile] alithea
Who indeed. I'm not sure it'll take that long tbh - they already have no government and the border issues are going to be a nightmare at this rate since the UK Gov are still burying their heads in the sand about it and making out some magic solution of a border that isn't a border is possible.

Date: 2018-03-27 03:17 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
My thinking behind the ten years.

The vehicle for demanding a referendum is the NI Parliament. I think the Scottish experience suggests that the convention is that the devolved parliament is the body that has to request a referendum. So in order to have a referendum in Northern Ireland you need a majority in favour of holding one in Stormont. Which means you need a Parliament.

It's going to be a couple of years before the NI Parliament is back up and running. The DUP I think have no particular need to have it re-instated as they currently own the Conservative Party and Sein Fein have no leverage in Westminister because they don't turn up.

Parliamentary terms are 4 years. I don't think pro-referendum parties will win the first election after Stormont is re-started. So that's one parliamentary term. Assuming that a coalition of pro-referendum parties win a majority in the second parliament it's going to be at least a year, probably two before they get the referendum process sorted out. They'll need to get the NI equivalent of a Section 30 Order through Westminister. I guess the Irish Parliament has to give some sort of legislative consent too (it would be foolish to have a referendum on joining a country that didn't want you to join).

Then the actual referendum campaign.

So, 2 years before Stormont restarts, 4 years for the first term, 2 years for all the to-ing and fro-ing to set up the referendum, a year long campaign - 9 years, rounding up to ten.

But I fully concede that in the current climate anything could happen at any time for any reason or none.

Date: 2018-03-27 03:28 pm (UTC)
alithea: Artwork of Francine from Strangers in Paradise, top half only with hair and scarf blowing in the wind (Default)
From: [personal profile] alithea
Yeah, interesting times...

But your argument makes perfect sense.

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