andrewducker: (Default)
[personal profile] andrewducker

Date: 2018-03-27 12:33 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Sadly, I'm not surprised by the preference for leaving the EU over having Northern Ireland remain in the United Kingdom. I think for lots and lots of English people the UK is synonymous with England and Northern Ireland is probably bottom of the pile when considering the constituent parts of the UK.

Date: 2018-03-27 02:19 pm (UTC)
alithea: Artwork of Francine from Strangers in Paradise, top half only with hair and scarf blowing in the wind (Default)
From: [personal profile] alithea
Yep.

Although in this case it might be to NI's advantage - even the diehard unionist I know is muttering about a united Ireland in preference to leaving the EU...

Date: 2018-03-27 02:47 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Indeed.

My expectation is that Northern Ireland will have a referendum on re-unification with the Republic of Ireland in about ten years time and I wouldn't be surprised if they voted to re-join the Republic and the EU.

Who could blame them?

Date: 2018-03-27 02:53 pm (UTC)
alithea: Artwork of Francine from Strangers in Paradise, top half only with hair and scarf blowing in the wind (Warrior River (made by brokenharlequin))
From: [personal profile] alithea
Who indeed. I'm not sure it'll take that long tbh - they already have no government and the border issues are going to be a nightmare at this rate since the UK Gov are still burying their heads in the sand about it and making out some magic solution of a border that isn't a border is possible.

Date: 2018-03-27 03:17 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
My thinking behind the ten years.

The vehicle for demanding a referendum is the NI Parliament. I think the Scottish experience suggests that the convention is that the devolved parliament is the body that has to request a referendum. So in order to have a referendum in Northern Ireland you need a majority in favour of holding one in Stormont. Which means you need a Parliament.

It's going to be a couple of years before the NI Parliament is back up and running. The DUP I think have no particular need to have it re-instated as they currently own the Conservative Party and Sein Fein have no leverage in Westminister because they don't turn up.

Parliamentary terms are 4 years. I don't think pro-referendum parties will win the first election after Stormont is re-started. So that's one parliamentary term. Assuming that a coalition of pro-referendum parties win a majority in the second parliament it's going to be at least a year, probably two before they get the referendum process sorted out. They'll need to get the NI equivalent of a Section 30 Order through Westminister. I guess the Irish Parliament has to give some sort of legislative consent too (it would be foolish to have a referendum on joining a country that didn't want you to join).

Then the actual referendum campaign.

So, 2 years before Stormont restarts, 4 years for the first term, 2 years for all the to-ing and fro-ing to set up the referendum, a year long campaign - 9 years, rounding up to ten.

But I fully concede that in the current climate anything could happen at any time for any reason or none.

Date: 2018-03-27 03:28 pm (UTC)
alithea: Artwork of Francine from Strangers in Paradise, top half only with hair and scarf blowing in the wind (Default)
From: [personal profile] alithea
Yeah, interesting times...

But your argument makes perfect sense.

Ibuprofen

Date: 2018-03-27 06:22 pm (UTC)
agoodwinsmith: (Default)
From: [personal profile] agoodwinsmith
I doubt the Ibuprofen study. Ibuprofen was made in 1961. My Dad has been using ibuprofen daily since the 1980's (he has a foot injury from the70's that still hasn't healed properly). He is still following the trajectory of his maternal uncles.

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