The UK government is pissing me off over the Scottish Independence Referendum

[andrewducker]

The SNP manifesto for the 2011 elections stated that if elected they would hold a referendum on Scottish Independence. Before the election took place they stated that this referendum would be in the second half of the parliamentary term (so 2014 or 2015). Having been elected, it seems fairly obvious to me that they now have a mandate to hold a referendum in the second half of the term.*

Therefore, for the UK-wide government to be suggesting that they could offer the SNP a legally binding referendum, in return for it being held earlier** seems to me to be political meddling of the worst sort. The UK government hadn't offered a referendum, weren't going to hold a referenfum, and all of the UK-wide parties blocked a referendum being held when it was proposed during the previous Scottish parliament. Therefore, the only possible reason they can have for getting involved now is to prevent the mandate of the legally elected Scottish government from being carried out.

I don't know how I'm going to vote, come the referendum. But I do know that every time the UK government interferes it pushes more people to vote for independence from them, and that by playing political games like this they're playing directly into the hands of the SNP. They don't need to sell independence more than they currently have, they just need "The London Government" to alienate people.

*Whether they have a legal right is another matter - but that would be a matter for the courts to settle.
**The current polling indicates, depending on the exact question asked, that either it would be very close, or there would be a No vote.

Comments

[matgb]

Yeah, prettu much, I've had this conversation a few times locally last few days, the SNP is keeping to their stated planned timetable as set out int he manifesto, the idiots attacking them for keeping a promise just look churlish.

There is an argument for sooner over later, and another argument over the legal niceties, but they're irrelevent.

Cameron's an idiot, but I don't know if he's playing a game I can't see the strategy for. But it's not just him, some non-SNP Holyrood types have been equally daft.

[pisica.livejournal.com]

But I do know that every time the UK government interferes it pushes more people to vote for independence from them, and that by playing political games like this they're playing directly into the hands of the SNP. They don't need to sell independence more than they currently have, they just need "The London Government" to alienate people.

I hadn't gotten to the stage where I was this articulate yet, but yes, I wholeheartedly agree. Alex Salmond is very, very good at playing his party's policies off what is going on in Westminster, and I have no doubt he will actively use things like this to the maximum possible advantage.

Have you done a Scottish independence poll yet? I realise your readership is not a cross-section of society, but I'd be interested to see the results - and to see what the changes are when you do the poll closer to 2014....

[andrewducker]

The problem is that most of my readership isn't based in Scotland, so I'd get some very odd responses. I may do one later today anyway, depending on how busy I am :->

If it looks like the Conservatives might still be in power after the next UK election (May 2015) then that would be a great time to hold the referendum. The thought of another 5 years of Conservatives in power would be enough to push a bunch of people over the edge.

[simont]

You could divide the poll into two questions, one marked "vote in this poll if you're in Scotland" and one marked "vote in this one if you're elsewhere"? Then you could not only filter the weird non-Scots out of your sensible data, but also find out what bizarre opinions you were filtering out :-)

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

If you do do a poll, is it worth including a "Who should get to vote?" question? Some would argue that removing Scotland from the UK would impact on England, Wales and NI too so they should get a say on the make-up of the union.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Whether legally Scotland can hold a legally binding referendum or not is surely a moot point. If a referendum is held, and the vote is "Yes", then there may need to be a bill raised in Westminster to dissolve the Union, but I don't see how it can be anything other than a formality. Surely no UK government could refuse to allow independence to go through if there really was a resounding "Yes" vote in a referendum.

I have been loathed to believe the conspiracy theories that the Tory leadership wants Scottish independence, but this sort of affair makes me wonder if in fact they do. Are the Tory government picking this fight with the SNP deliberately to bolster Scottish support for independence? They have very little support in Scotland (currently 1 MP) and have a lot to gain were Westminster to lose 59 Scottish seats permanently.

[andrewducker]

Yup, if Scotland voted to leave then I cannot see the rest of the UK trying to stop it. There would be rioting in the streets, at the least.

It would definitely be in the interests of the Conservatives to have Scotland leave the UK, but it's a point of principle for them that the UK is United.

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

I honestly can't decide which they're after; whether they're trying to get a Yes vote by pissing off those north of the border or get a No vote by bringing forward the date before the SNP have the chance to convince enough people to pass the referendum and by taking out the third option of more devolved powers that the SNP were contemplating.*

Either way, you can be sure they've wasted taxpayers money on lots of research, polls and focus groups to ensure they this course of action gets the result they want.

* My gut instinct is that those that might have voted for more devolved powers will likely vote No if forced to make a straight choice

[autopope.livejournal.com]

I have been loathed to believe the conspiracy theories that the Tory leadership wants Scottish independence, but this sort of affair makes me wonder if in fact they do.

No, I suspect what's happened is that Cameron doesn't want Scottish autonomy, and is trying to use this gambit to avoid a three-option poll, with a middle option for substantially more autonomy within the UK. He learned from the disastrous-for-LibDems referendum on voting reform that he can use referenda as a bully pulpit.

Salmond would be a mug to fall for this.

[andrewducker]

Oh, I really can't see Salmond falling for it. The response I've seen has been the obvious one of "Look at The London Government interfering again!"

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Do you think Cameron want to avoid Scottish autonomy per se or does he want to avoid English regionalism as part of a Devo Max solution?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

It is arguably the case that the Scottish Parliament does not have the legislative competence to hold a referendum and that any attempt to hold a referendum, binding, advisory, indicative, petitioning or whatever would be blocked by the courts

[poisonduk.livejournal.com]

Well I'll be voting no. Plus I welcome the UK government offering it now, why bother delaying something?. They want a straight forward Yes/No vote which will be clean cut and cannot have its results manipulated in any way. In my opinion the SNP have done no good for this country. I'd prefer a speedy vote to find out the future and whether we're all doomed or not.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

My thoughts exactly! Nicola Sturgeon is spot on when she says Cameron is a gift to the independence movement, he brings out the Scottish Nationalist in me and I'm English (although I have lived here 12 years and got to the stage where crossing the border Southbound no longer feels like going home because this is my home now).

Having said which, I think I'll still vote No - I like the Devo Max option personally.

[andrewducker]

I'm not sure I view the Devo Max option as being sustainable, unless it also changes things like how the Scottish MPs vote in Westminster. Otherwise it still leaves us with all sorts of weird contortions.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Well yes, I was speaking theoretically as I'm not sure how we get it to work in practice either. I already get annoyed that my SNP MP won't vote on anything he considers to be an England-only issue...

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Well I've long been of the opinion that the Tories are super keen for scotland to go independant, just because that would mean Labour can never win another election down south, and Gordon Brown and other senior figures would be out of a job.

Clegg was opening his mouth yesterday too, spouting that the only people who wanted scottish independence were dangerous extremists. Which... surely only drove more scots towards wanting independence.

[andrewducker]

Actually, looking at the figures for 97,2001 and 2005, Labour would have won without Scotland being there.

(2005 has Labour on 413 to Conservatives on 186)

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

Clegg didn't say those who wanted independence were 'dangerous extremists', he said it was 'an extreme position'. Which it is - in the context of a three-way referendum on staying in the union, devo max or full independence, independence is one of the extremes.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

If I wanted a settled constitution with Scotland as part of the UK I think I would let the SNP have the referendum whenever they wanted this Scottish Parliament and I’d let them ask any question they wanted.

If the No campaign wins then the will of people is demonstrably for the Union and the SNP would have to accept that in a fair debate they didn’t win.

If there is any doubt about the fairness of the process it would leave continuing question marks over the result. These would continue to rankle in the minds of Nationalists and nationalists and the question would be re-opened in a few decades time.*

*A few decades time being well within the investment appraisal time of many of the industries Scotland has.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Interesting - what would happen if Scotland voted no, but the SNP then won another election? Would the issue be dead or would they just try again until they get the desired result.

[andrewducker]

I am seriously hoping that either way around this makes the problem go away. Either there will be no vote and the SNP will have to shut up about it for 20 years, or there will be a yes vote and the Scottish will have to stop complaining about how everything is the fault of The English.

[undeadbydawn.livejournal.com]

I suspect I may be somewhat typical among Scottish voters, in that facing a Tory government [nope, the Libs don't really mean that much anymore] for an additional 5 years would mean a guaranteed Yes vote.

If Labour looked anywhere remotely like being capable of briefly pretending - convincingly or otherwise - that they were ready to govern within the next decade, that may change. But in the current landscape, not a hope.

So the question becomes: is Scotland ready for Independence. Currently, no. Or at least I am not convinced. In a year or so, when we'll see the full extent of Osborne's butchering? Quite possibly.

The interesting thing is the extent to which the political narrative is different here. The Conservatives are a lost cause in Scotland, have been since the very early days of Thatcher if not before. They aren't going to get much better in the next few years. Labour have taken one hell of a beating, mostly due to the grossly unfair baiting of Gordon Brown [a far better Politician, and better Man, than he will ever be credited for].

If the SNP can prove that they are the alternative to Westminster, rather than just Salmonds' playground, they can win a referendum. If there's enough uncertainty, they will lose.

what happens in Scotland afterwards is a question I'm nowhere near ready to think about yet. I'm hoping for a drive to lift health and education standards [actual standards, not exam passes] and a total rethink on energy policy.

and to continue in my conviction that I absolutely do not want to be an MSP.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I confess that one of the drivers of my current view in favour of independence is not having another Conservative government ever again. To be honest I’m not not mad keen on a Labour government that has had to win election by appealing to voters in marginal English seats.

The vision for Scotland post-Independence is very unclear. In terms of tactics I’m not sure if the SNP / Yes campaign would be better off articulating a clearer vision of how Scotland would be different or if they should just stick to a Freedom and General Betterment (or more realistically saying that a closer focus on Scottish affairs would improve our performance sufficiently that we could have the nice things we want that we currently don’t have – whatever they are).

I’m intrigued by the potential political landscape. If Scotland is independent there doesn’t seem to me to be a need for two social democractic parties, one for and one against independence. So either the Labour Party or the SNP either has to wind up or shift its ground.

[xenophanean.livejournal.com]

I'm not pleased by this either. However, I think the main thrust of this plan is to get rid of devo+ (the scheme which'll probably win if the SNP get their way). Basically he's trying to force the Scottish people into saying 'no'. Personally, I think independence on the Tories terms is a very bad idea, and that the SNP should try counter-regulating against any referendum that Westminster tries to impose.