The UK government is pissing me off over the Scottish Independence Referendum

[andrewducker]

The SNP manifesto for the 2011 elections stated that if elected they would hold a referendum on Scottish Independence. Before the election took place they stated that this referendum would be in the second half of the parliamentary term (so 2014 or 2015). Having been elected, it seems fairly obvious to me that they now have a mandate to hold a referendum in the second half of the term.*

Therefore, for the UK-wide government to be suggesting that they could offer the SNP a legally binding referendum, in return for it being held earlier** seems to me to be political meddling of the worst sort. The UK government hadn't offered a referendum, weren't going to hold a referenfum, and all of the UK-wide parties blocked a referendum being held when it was proposed during the previous Scottish parliament. Therefore, the only possible reason they can have for getting involved now is to prevent the mandate of the legally elected Scottish government from being carried out.

I don't know how I'm going to vote, come the referendum. But I do know that every time the UK government interferes it pushes more people to vote for independence from them, and that by playing political games like this they're playing directly into the hands of the SNP. They don't need to sell independence more than they currently have, they just need "The London Government" to alienate people.

*Whether they have a legal right is another matter - but that would be a matter for the courts to settle.
**The current polling indicates, depending on the exact question asked, that either it would be very close, or there would be a No vote.

Comments

[matgb]

Yeah, prettu much, I've had this conversation a few times locally last few days, the SNP is keeping to their stated planned timetable as set out int he manifesto, the idiots attacking them for keeping a promise just look churlish.

There is an argument for sooner over later, and another argument over the legal niceties, but they're irrelevent.

Cameron's an idiot, but I don't know if he's playing a game I can't see the strategy for. But it's not just him, some non-SNP Holyrood types have been equally daft.

[pisica.livejournal.com]

But I do know that every time the UK government interferes it pushes more people to vote for independence from them, and that by playing political games like this they're playing directly into the hands of the SNP. They don't need to sell independence more than they currently have, they just need "The London Government" to alienate people.

I hadn't gotten to the stage where I was this articulate yet, but yes, I wholeheartedly agree. Alex Salmond is very, very good at playing his party's policies off what is going on in Westminster, and I have no doubt he will actively use things like this to the maximum possible advantage.

Have you done a Scottish independence poll yet? I realise your readership is not a cross-section of society, but I'd be interested to see the results - and to see what the changes are when you do the poll closer to 2014....

[andrewducker]

The problem is that most of my readership isn't based in Scotland, so I'd get some very odd responses. I may do one later today anyway, depending on how busy I am :->

If it looks like the Conservatives might still be in power after the next UK election (May 2015) then that would be a great time to hold the referendum. The thought of another 5 years of Conservatives in power would be enough to push a bunch of people over the edge.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Whether legally Scotland can hold a legally binding referendum or not is surely a moot point. If a referendum is held, and the vote is "Yes", then there may need to be a bill raised in Westminster to dissolve the Union, but I don't see how it can be anything other than a formality. Surely no UK government could refuse to allow independence to go through if there really was a resounding "Yes" vote in a referendum.

I have been loathed to believe the conspiracy theories that the Tory leadership wants Scottish independence, but this sort of affair makes me wonder if in fact they do. Are the Tory government picking this fight with the SNP deliberately to bolster Scottish support for independence? They have very little support in Scotland (currently 1 MP) and have a lot to gain were Westminster to lose 59 Scottish seats permanently.

[simont]

You could divide the poll into two questions, one marked "vote in this poll if you're in Scotland" and one marked "vote in this one if you're elsewhere"? Then you could not only filter the weird non-Scots out of your sensible data, but also find out what bizarre opinions you were filtering out :-)

[poisonduk.livejournal.com]

Well I'll be voting no. Plus I welcome the UK government offering it now, why bother delaying something?. They want a straight forward Yes/No vote which will be clean cut and cannot have its results manipulated in any way. In my opinion the SNP have done no good for this country. I'd prefer a speedy vote to find out the future and whether we're all doomed or not.

[andrewducker]

Yup, if Scotland voted to leave then I cannot see the rest of the UK trying to stop it. There would be rioting in the streets, at the least.

It would definitely be in the interests of the Conservatives to have Scotland leave the UK, but it's a point of principle for them that the UK is United.

[chess]

It'd need 'would you vote for independence if you were in Scotland' and 'would you vote for independence if you got a vote despite not living in Scotland' separately, I think; I know my answers for those are different!

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

I honestly can't decide which they're after; whether they're trying to get a Yes vote by pissing off those north of the border or get a No vote by bringing forward the date before the SNP have the chance to convince enough people to pass the referendum and by taking out the third option of more devolved powers that the SNP were contemplating.*

Either way, you can be sure they've wasted taxpayers money on lots of research, polls and focus groups to ensure they this course of action gets the result they want.

* My gut instinct is that those that might have voted for more devolved powers will likely vote No if forced to make a straight choice

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

My thoughts exactly! Nicola Sturgeon is spot on when she says Cameron is a gift to the independence movement, he brings out the Scottish Nationalist in me and I'm English (although I have lived here 12 years and got to the stage where crossing the border Southbound no longer feels like going home because this is my home now).

Having said which, I think I'll still vote No - I like the Devo Max option personally.

[andrewducker]

Depends how I'm forced. If that's what the final vote has on it, because that's how the referendum is run, then I'll be thinking about it very carefully.

If it's that way because the UK government forces it on the Scottish government then I'll be voting Yes.

[andrewducker]

I'm not sure I view the Devo Max option as being sustainable, unless it also changes things like how the Scottish MPs vote in Westminster. Otherwise it still leaves us with all sorts of weird contortions.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Well yes, I was speaking theoretically as I'm not sure how we get it to work in practice either. I already get annoyed that my SNP MP won't vote on anything he considers to be an England-only issue...

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Well I've long been of the opinion that the Tories are super keen for scotland to go independant, just because that would mean Labour can never win another election down south, and Gordon Brown and other senior figures would be out of a job.

Clegg was opening his mouth yesterday too, spouting that the only people who wanted scottish independence were dangerous extremists. Which... surely only drove more scots towards wanting independence.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Yes, the UK Government forcing things is the thing most likely to get me to vote Yes I think.

[andrewducker]

To be honest, I think that's how it _should_ work. But I'd like to see it codified into a proper legal settlement so that it's official, and not a mess of people acting independently.

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

If you do do a poll, is it worth including a "Who should get to vote?" question? Some would argue that removing Scotland from the UK would impact on England, Wales and NI too so they should get a say on the make-up of the union.

[andrewducker]

Actually, looking at the figures for 97,2001 and 2005, Labour would have won without Scotland being there.

(2005 has Labour on 413 to Conservatives on 186)

[marrog.livejournal.com]

I'm inclined to agree; although frankly at this point I'd be inclined to vote Yes not because I feel particularly strongly about independence but because I'm particularly bored and frustrated by the status quo at the moment and would do just about anything to shake it up a bit.

[andrewducker]

I have absolutely no time for that argument - "I'm sorry, you can't get a divorce, because it affects your wife too, and she vetoed it."

The people that live somewhere get to decide what happens to it. If we were merging with England, Wales and NI then they get to decide if they want to marry us, they don't get to hold us against our will.

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Ah, that's interesting. I'd forgotten the Labour landslide was on quite that scale.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

I'm incline to agree - it's the inconsistencies of the current mess that get up my nose no-end. I'd be significantly less annoyed by his principled stand if everyone else acted the same way. And if he agreed with me that environmental issues don't follow neat geographical boundaries.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

That's a tempting train of thought that I keep thinking I ought to resist, although I'm not entirely sure whether it's just my natural inclination towards change-avoidance that makes me feel that way...

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure I do either, but I've seen it raised in several places. Might be interesting to ask....

[autopope.livejournal.com]

I have been loathed to believe the conspiracy theories that the Tory leadership wants Scottish independence, but this sort of affair makes me wonder if in fact they do.

No, I suspect what's happened is that Cameron doesn't want Scottish autonomy, and is trying to use this gambit to avoid a three-option poll, with a middle option for substantially more autonomy within the UK. He learned from the disastrous-for-LibDems referendum on voting reform that he can use referenda as a bully pulpit.

Salmond would be a mug to fall for this.