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May. 13th, 2007
Political Opinions
May. 13th, 2007 10:33 amThe Euro
Currently against it, for purely economic reasons. In fact, looking at the data from the last 4 years we almost could have been in the Euro as we've largely fluctuated within 3 cents of €1.47. However, the reason we've stayed so static is because we've kept inflation low, and so have they - but using very different interest rates. If we joined the euro then we'd lose control over our interest rates and thus while our exchange rate would then be fixed it would cause more problems with the economy because inflation would no longer be controllable on a local level. This has already been causing problems for various countries in the Euro area, with their economies being out of synch and no way of adjusting interest rates to match them. While there's an immediate gain to be made from not having to worry about currency conversion costs, the long term difficulties it would cause look likely to be outweighed by this. If our interest rate and the ECB interest rate were to be sufficiently similar for a prolonged period of time then I could see a case being made, but not when our interest rates are 2% over theirs.
Scottish Independence
On the other hand, I don't consider this to be an economic question. Either people in Scotland feel like they're part of the UK or they don't. While I consider it likely that Scotland would be, in some ways, worse off outside the UK, I also think that the effect on happiness of being ruled in a way that feels like imposition rather than collaboration is extremely negative. It's possible that Scotland becoming independent would remove the barrier to thinking that has some Scots blaming lots of their problems on England, meaning that they'd have to either sort themselves out or admit that their problems are their own. In any case, at the last election around third of people voted for an pro-independence party, and opinion polls tend to show support around that level. Polls show interesting, but varying results. When asked purely about Independence the results are much stronger than when asked "Independence, more power, or as things currently stand" the majority want more power, but not full-blown independence. I certainly see the current situation as untenable - we're going to need an English parliament at some point, or the removal of Scottish MPs from voting over purely English matters.
Currently against it, for purely economic reasons. In fact, looking at the data from the last 4 years we almost could have been in the Euro as we've largely fluctuated within 3 cents of €1.47. However, the reason we've stayed so static is because we've kept inflation low, and so have they - but using very different interest rates. If we joined the euro then we'd lose control over our interest rates and thus while our exchange rate would then be fixed it would cause more problems with the economy because inflation would no longer be controllable on a local level. This has already been causing problems for various countries in the Euro area, with their economies being out of synch and no way of adjusting interest rates to match them. While there's an immediate gain to be made from not having to worry about currency conversion costs, the long term difficulties it would cause look likely to be outweighed by this. If our interest rate and the ECB interest rate were to be sufficiently similar for a prolonged period of time then I could see a case being made, but not when our interest rates are 2% over theirs.
Scottish Independence
On the other hand, I don't consider this to be an economic question. Either people in Scotland feel like they're part of the UK or they don't. While I consider it likely that Scotland would be, in some ways, worse off outside the UK, I also think that the effect on happiness of being ruled in a way that feels like imposition rather than collaboration is extremely negative. It's possible that Scotland becoming independent would remove the barrier to thinking that has some Scots blaming lots of their problems on England, meaning that they'd have to either sort themselves out or admit that their problems are their own. In any case, at the last election around third of people voted for an pro-independence party, and opinion polls tend to show support around that level. Polls show interesting, but varying results. When asked purely about Independence the results are much stronger than when asked "Independence, more power, or as things currently stand" the majority want more power, but not full-blown independence. I certainly see the current situation as untenable - we're going to need an English parliament at some point, or the removal of Scottish MPs from voting over purely English matters.
More political thoughts
May. 13th, 2007 03:48 pmThere's a fair chance, to put it mildly, that Labour won't win the next elections. Which means that if Gordon's clever (which he is), he'll spend the next two years making sure that even if the Conservatives take power they won't be able to do anything too serious to derail the road Labour has set the UK on.
Part of that comprises the plans just announced to strip Number 10 of much of its power - including the ability to go to war without the approval of parliament.
I'm also wondering whether there'll be a push to finally get Proportional Representation through. That's never going to be in the interests of the Conservatives, and it wasn't in the interests of Labour when it had a huge majority - but now things are swinging against them maybe they'll finally live up to their 2001 manifesto...
Part of that comprises the plans just announced to strip Number 10 of much of its power - including the ability to go to war without the approval of parliament.
I'm also wondering whether there'll be a push to finally get Proportional Representation through. That's never going to be in the interests of the Conservatives, and it wasn't in the interests of Labour when it had a huge majority - but now things are swinging against them maybe they'll finally live up to their 2001 manifesto...