The trouble the SNP are in
Jul. 8th, 2024 03:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
andrewduckerIndependence is still popular in Scotland - getting somewhere between 39% and 49% in recent polls. But the SNP only got 30% of the vote in the General Election. Even with the other pro-indy party (The Greens) getting 4%, that leaves 5%-15% unaccounted for. Why is that?
The problem, as I can see it, is two-fold:
1) The SNP are The Party Of Independence and Independence isn't happening until the polls show a consistent level of support in the high 50s.
Westminster is balancing things between "Scotland can absolutely leave the UK if they really want to." and "That's just not happening, so we're not going to talk about it." Approaching them at the moment to ask for permission to hold a referendum leads to them saying "You had one, and people didn't want it. Polling isn't above 50%, so Scotland doesn't want one now."
And, to be fair, they absolutely have a point that polling hasn't been above 50% for any sustained period except for during the lockdown phase of the pandemic (when the Scottish government were managing things more sensibly than the UK one).
So the SNP tactic of repeatedly saying "X is a mandate for another referendum!" just sounds stupid to me (and many others).
2) That being the case, people want a nice safe pair of hands that will run the country well. And the SNP looked like that for quite a while, but the police investigation, issues with audits, etc. make them look less safe*. So if they want to be electable then they need to get their house in order and be more transparent.
I *think* that what was going on there was that rather than be open about ongoing issues they just decided to cover things up in the hope that at some point in the near future Independence was achieved. And that was sustainable for a while, but independence never came, and eventually the house of cards imploded. There's a lesson there that governments can survive multiple minor scandals, but if they all come out at once then it looks terrible.
If they can get back to a point of "Nice safe boring social democrats" then when Labour disappoint (as they almost certainly will) they're ready to take advantage of that. But promising things they can't deliver and doing/hiding things that look (or are!) dodgy isn't going to get them there.
The problem, as I can see it, is two-fold:
1) The SNP are The Party Of Independence and Independence isn't happening until the polls show a consistent level of support in the high 50s.
Westminster is balancing things between "Scotland can absolutely leave the UK if they really want to." and "That's just not happening, so we're not going to talk about it." Approaching them at the moment to ask for permission to hold a referendum leads to them saying "You had one, and people didn't want it. Polling isn't above 50%, so Scotland doesn't want one now."
And, to be fair, they absolutely have a point that polling hasn't been above 50% for any sustained period except for during the lockdown phase of the pandemic (when the Scottish government were managing things more sensibly than the UK one).
So the SNP tactic of repeatedly saying "X is a mandate for another referendum!" just sounds stupid to me (and many others).
2) That being the case, people want a nice safe pair of hands that will run the country well. And the SNP looked like that for quite a while, but the police investigation, issues with audits, etc. make them look less safe*. So if they want to be electable then they need to get their house in order and be more transparent.
I *think* that what was going on there was that rather than be open about ongoing issues they just decided to cover things up in the hope that at some point in the near future Independence was achieved. And that was sustainable for a while, but independence never came, and eventually the house of cards imploded. There's a lesson there that governments can survive multiple minor scandals, but if they all come out at once then it looks terrible.
If they can get back to a point of "Nice safe boring social democrats" then when Labour disappoint (as they almost certainly will) they're ready to take advantage of that. But promising things they can't deliver and doing/hiding things that look (or are!) dodgy isn't going to get them there.
no subject
Date: 2024-07-08 09:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-07-08 09:10 pm (UTC)