The trouble the SNP are in

[andrewducker]

Independence is still popular in Scotland - getting somewhere between 39% and 49% in recent polls. But the SNP only got 30% of the vote in the General Election. Even with the other pro-indy party (The Greens) getting 4%, that leaves 5%-15% unaccounted for. Why is that?

The problem, as I can see it, is two-fold:
1) The SNP are The Party Of Independence and Independence isn't happening until the polls show a consistent level of support in the high 50s.
Westminster is balancing things between "Scotland can absolutely leave the UK if they really want to." and "That's just not happening, so we're not going to talk about it." Approaching them at the moment to ask for permission to hold a referendum leads to them saying "You had one, and people didn't want it. Polling isn't above 50%, so Scotland doesn't want one now."
And, to be fair, they absolutely have a point that polling hasn't been above 50% for any sustained period except for during the lockdown phase of the pandemic (when the Scottish government were managing things more sensibly than the UK one).
So the SNP tactic of repeatedly saying "X is a mandate for another referendum!" just sounds stupid to me (and many others).

2) That being the case, people want a nice safe pair of hands that will run the country well. And the SNP looked like that for quite a while, but the police investigation, issues with audits, etc. make them look less safe*. So if they want to be electable then they need to get their house in order and be more transparent.
I *think* that what was going on there was that rather than be open about ongoing issues they just decided to cover things up in the hope that at some point in the near future Independence was achieved. And that was sustainable for a while, but independence never came, and eventually the house of cards imploded. There's a lesson there that governments can survive multiple minor scandals, but if they all come out at once then it looks terrible.

If they can get back to a point of "Nice safe boring social democrats" then when Labour disappoint (as they almost certainly will) they're ready to take advantage of that. But promising things they can't deliver and doing/hiding things that look (or are!) dodgy isn't going to get them there.

Comments

[andrewducker]

Worth noting that the SNP got 30% to Labour's 35% in Scotland. There's not a huge amount in it.

[gingicat]

Thank you for the explanation, I had been wondering.

[wenchpixie]

Turn out was low, too - I need to look at some comparisons on turnout and vote share loss but I'm pretty sure there's a correlation there - which is almost certainly related to your points above.

Mhairi Black made a damn good point that the SPN need to get the house in order over the TERF nonsense (and lack of LBTQIA support in general, of which Kate Forbes appointment is a flag) - the party is looking rather less progressive, as well as rather less boringly competent than it used to.

If they don't get things back in order, I suspect we might see more of a swing to Green in the parly elections - rather than Labour, as the "best of a bad lot" maths would be significantly different then.

Infinite complicated feelings about the Westminster result, but maybe it'll be a useful kick up the arse for Holyrood.

[calimac]

The SNP used to have a right-wing reputation, but I guess that was long ago. Labour would claim they were "Tartan Tories."

[wenchpixie]

They did, but they've been centrist in policy for a couple of decades now (they've been left of Labour since Blair at the very least).

[haggis]

Independence is still popular in Scotland - getting somewhere between 39% and 49% in recent polls.

So is that 60% and 50% in favour of remaining in the UK or are there other options or Don't Knows in there?

I think after 17 years in power without Independence, it is pretty fair to judge the SNP on their other policies rather than reading an SNP vote as an Independence vote.

[andrewducker]

There's about 6% indecisive. It varies - the link in the post has a load of results.

[haggis]

Ah, I missed the link the first time.

[poshmerchant]

Bloc Quebecois went from 49 seats in 2008 to 4 seats in 2011 to 10 seats in 2015 to 32 seats in 2019 and 2021. They are polling quite well in advance of the 2025 election. The last independence referendum was in 1995

[andrewducker]

And currently polling with a lead of 10%-20% to No, compared to our 6%-16%. More, but not vastly so.

[autopope]

Other confounding factors for the SNP:

1. They've been the lead party in government in Scotland since 2007. That's 17 years: it's as long as Margaret Thatcher and John Major in Westminster! So the "time for a change" vibe is running against them.

2. Times are harsh (thanks to George Osborne and successors) and the SNP haven't been able to adequately insulate the voters from central government mandated cuts to public spending. So of course the low information voters blame the people who deliver the cuts, not those who set up the preconditions that forced them to.

3. Small-C conservativism rises during times of precarity -- it's a defensive reflex -- and we've got COVID19, public spending shortfalls, and Brexit all happening simultaneously. Voters are simply more risk-averse than they were a decade ago.

4. Brexit has been a huge reality check for any more thoughtful voters contemplating separating a smaller trading partner from a free trade union, and that's exactly what Scexit from the UK would amount to at this point. If both sides agree to play fair it's not a problem, but very few people could imagine a departing Scotland getting anything other than a raw deal from English Tories.

Finally:

1. This GE in the UK was the first opportunity Scottish voters have had to punish the SNP since the start of COVID19 and Brexit.