A few thoughts on what could happen next for Boris Johnson

[andrewducker]

He won the VONC. This is what I wanted, and what I predicted a few days ago when I said, over on Twitter and Facebook: Funniest outcome: enough letters go in to have a No Confidence vote against Johnson, he then wins it, and then the Conservatives catastrophically lose the two by-elections.

So, next steps are to lose the two by-elections 1 and 2 on the 23rd of June (or, at the least, suffer massive swings).

But before that we have a more interesting one - an upcoming vote on breaking international law on the Northern Ireland Protocol. 148 Conservative MPs voted against him in the no-confidence vote. It needs only 40 to do so on this bill (which is remarkably contentious) and he can't pass it.

At which point, last time around, he called a general election. Doing so again, and winning it, would absolutely cement him back into power.

The big question is - would he win it? It doesn't look like it, but Johnson might take the risk...

(My preferred outcome would be a Labour government dependent on the Lib Dems and SNP to pass things, with both of them insisting on electoral reform as essential.)

Comments

[calimac]

Assorted thoughts here:

1) Remember when the Conservatives were losing all those by-elections after scraping out a victory in 1992? Good times. (Some time during the depths of the Blair era, I suggested to a Conservative friend that the worst thing that ever happened to the party, from the point of view of supporting it, was that it won the 1992 election, and she didn't disagree.)

2) But if BJ called an election now, I wonder if there'd be enough enthusiasm for other parties for them to do any better. Except the SNP. The SNP should do fine.

2a). It'd be a little like 2005, with different labels. Voters no longer wanted the government but they didn't want the opposition either. Labour didn't win that one, they just lost least badly. Same could happen for the Conservatives here: actually I wonder if it didn't already happen in '17 and '19.

3) "Labour ... dependent on the Lib Dems and SNP ... with both of them insisting on electoral reform." But considering how thoroughly and absolutely the Lib Dems muffed that issue in the coalition, I wonder if they've learned any better how to handle this.

[andrewducker]

1) Absolutely. Utter incompetence and scandal for 4 years utterly ruined them for a decade.
2) I think there's enough enthusiasm for getting rid of Johnson - I agree that neither Labour nor Lib Dems are very attractive.
2b) The polls are very-much indicating a Conservative loss here. Labour are around 7% ahead on average.
3) I'd really really hope so.

[danieldwilliam]

The polls also flatter the Greens who are polling on a few percent but won't put up candidates in most seats. The Labour lead of 7% is probably a real lead of 9% when people see who they can actually in practice vote for on the day.

[andrewducker]

This is true.

[andrewducker]

This is true. They'll be funneled into voting Labour in most contituencies. Might make a chunk of a difference.