Feeling good about the European Elections

[andrewducker]

Ignoring the headline, there's a good summary here. NI and Scotland haven't reported yet, but we have totals for everywhere else in the UK.

Anti-Brexit parties get 40.4%, Hard-Brexit parties get 34.9%, Labour 14%, Conservatives 9.1%.

And although the Lib Dems are currently third in my list of parties to vote for, I'm still delighted that they've beaten Labour and Conservatives in this election.

(Now to wait for the Scottish results. Rumour is that the SNP are going to continue wiping out Scottish Labour.)

Comments

[mountainkiss]

I agree. Easy to overplay Brex - the implications are horrifying from perspective of Tory govt policy now on EU Exit but bottom line is they're up from 21 seats (Ukip) to 28 seats, which is not a shattering overturn of the previous order. Remain parties have split vote but done well.

The more worrying thing is just how divided a country we live in, and one with no particular appetite to become less so.

[andrewducker]

Agreed. I don't know how to defuse that without going through the pain of some kind of Brexit to demonstrate to people that, no, really, it will be that bad.

The least painful option I can see is to hold another referendum and win it for Remain, and then spend the next generation (or two) constantly talking about how awesome the EU is so that public opinion continues to move away from leaving as new voters replace old ones.

[channelpenguin]

I don't think even that wil help. They will blame the bad on the EU... (or weak government negotiations)

[heron61]

And although the Lib Dems are currently third in my list of parties to vote for

I assume the SNP is first, who's second?

[andrewducker]

Greens.

Although it could be the other way around. I voted Green in the EU elections, because that seemed most likely to add another pro Remain seat.

[dewline]

And that pre-emptively answers a question I meant to ask.

[dreema]

Our local results were posted last night
In order
Scottish National Party (over double next largest)
Brexit Party
Conservative and Unionist Party
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
Scottish Green Party
UKIP
Change UK

Overall only 51 rejected ballot papers, so no bad really.

[claudeb]

Good to hear the UK voted in a relatively sane manner. So did Germany, by the way. On the other hand, France sent their far right to Brussels, Belgium may have done the same, and I hear they're not the only ones. Romania's lineup isn't so great either, though our own wannabe dictator got a big slap in the face, and at least we'll have a balanced representation out there. Too bad that's not enough with the way things are going.

[mair_in_grenderich]

uh yeah the UK sent their far right to Brussels, too.

[ninetydegrees]

Yep. Deeply ashamed of my own country. Thanks fellow neighbors who resisted fearmongering in these elections.

[calimac]

The problem is, aside from the number of MEPs, that even though the anti-Brexit parties outpolled the hard-Brexit ones, the Farage novelty won the most votes of any one party and claims it won.

So right now, in terms of punditry, the country is split between those who say of course Brexit should proceed and those who say of course there should be another referendum, each considering its course obvious.

The US equivalent is pundits wielding various sets of polling analyses to say either of course the Democrats should impeach Trump or of course they shouldn't.

[danieldwilliam]

I'm reasonably content with the result.

I think the Tories, in general, will talk themselves in to seeing it as evidence they should move towards a harder Brexit but they still don't have the numbers in Parliament and I don't think a general election is going to change that.

It might make things worse both for the Tories and for Brexit supporters.

2014 EU elections UKIP poll 26.6%, 4.4 million votes.

2015 UK GE UKIP poll 12.6% 3.9 million votes. UKIP get about the same number of votes but half the %.

2019 EU elections Brexit and UKIP combined poll 33.7% , 5.8 million votes.

Assuming that the two hard Brexit Parties repeat UKIPS 2014 to 2015 translation they would get about 16.9%, about 15.5% for Brexit and about 1.4% for UKIP.

That to my eye is right in the sort of territory where the Brexit Party would cost the Tories quite a few seats without winning any themselves. Gut feel suggests those seats would be mostly won by the LIb Dems or the SNP.

[mair_in_grenderich]

2019 EU elections Brexit and UKIP combined poll 33.7% , 5.8 million votes.
... 2019 Petition to revoke A50 > 6m signatures

[danieldwilliam]

Yes, but signing a petition online is a lot less effort than physically visiting a polling station.

I'm not sure they are like for like enough.

What you can say with confidence is that the British electorate is divided. I'm not sure there's much beyond that.