Brexit intensifies

[andrewducker]

So, today the only government ever to be found in contempt of parliament lost a vote by the largest margin ever suffered by a British government, losing by 230 votes (previous "winner" was Ramsay Macdonald's minority Labour government, losing by 166 votes).

Immediately afterwards, Corbyn lodged a vote of no confidence in the government. The DUP have said they will back the Conservatives, which almost certainly means that the vote will fail*.

The EU wants us to make our mind up, and has now repeatedly said that the withdrawal deal is not open for renegotiation. Which greatly reduces the options we have remaining. So once we the no confidence fails I can't see what else Labour can do but move towards a second referendum.

Which is, according to all recent polls, what the people want. (46% to 28% last I checked).

*It's _possible_ that a few Conservatives will rebel. But incredibly unlikely.

Comments

[andrewducker]

I think that there was an agreement behind the scenes that putting forward amendements to fail wasn't going to help anyone, and they should just get on with voting No.

(Or so I'm picking up from the commentariat. I suspect it'll be a while before we know for sure.)

[mountainkiss]

Yes, I think perhaps you're right and it's less depressing if so. I do not have a lot of faith in Mr Corbyn, though.

[andrewducker]

Me either!

[danieldwilliam]

I am reliably informed that they had decided to pull all the amendments as none of them were going to pass and therefore they wanted to get to the main event.

The one amendment that was not withdrawn was treated with some contempt.

[danieldwilliam]

Me either. The more I look at him the more I think he and I think orthagonally to each other which makes understanding him and trusting him pretty difficult.

He also remains very, very bad at the job of Leader of the Opposition at it has been understood for the last 50 years and not very good (perhaps actively bad) at doing the job of Leader of the Labour Movement as I think he conceives it for the 21st Century.

It's like watching someone play chess using the rules for backgammon whilst unable to find their own arse with both hands tied behind their back.

[andrewducker]

I don't actually think it makes a difference to the Irish border - because no matter what we say _at this moment_ the EU will want a backstop against us changing our minds next month.

The WA is our divorce agreement, and while, yes, the intentions beyond that point will affect it in a few minor ways, the divorce agreement isn't going to contain the new agreement, and it's going to contain the divorce bill and how we make sure that Northern Ireland still gets to see both parents.

And as the backstop is the main bone of contention, I don't see how this will change anything.

[mountainkiss]

To be fair most people can’t, unless their arms are remarkably long.

[danieldwilliam]

I suggest an series of empirical studies to settle the issue.

[skington]

I saw it said that not having earlier amendments and skipping straight to the main vote would make it harder for the Tory Whips, as they wouldn’t know who the nailed-on rebels were. Not that, in the end, it mattered.