Brexit intensifies

[andrewducker]

So, today the only government ever to be found in contempt of parliament lost a vote by the largest margin ever suffered by a British government, losing by 230 votes (previous "winner" was Ramsay Macdonald's minority Labour government, losing by 166 votes).

Immediately afterwards, Corbyn lodged a vote of no confidence in the government. The DUP have said they will back the Conservatives, which almost certainly means that the vote will fail*.

The EU wants us to make our mind up, and has now repeatedly said that the withdrawal deal is not open for renegotiation. Which greatly reduces the options we have remaining. So once we the no confidence fails I can't see what else Labour can do but move towards a second referendum.

Which is, according to all recent polls, what the people want. (46% to 28% last I checked).

*It's _possible_ that a few Conservatives will rebel. But incredibly unlikely.

Comments

[mountainkiss]

I suspect the EU would renegotiate for a customs union and single market option, though I could be wrong. I don’t discount a cross-party coalition for that. I also don’t discount no deal.

[andrewducker]

My understanding is that the customs union/single market option would be part of the "future relationship" discussion, which is due to happen after the withdrawal agreement is agreed/signed.

I'm happy to be corrected though. I may well have misunderstood!

(And yes, No Deal could happen. You'd hope that there would be a very quick passing of the Withdrawal Agreement on March 28th if that looked likely though.)

[mountainkiss]

Political declaration and withdrawal agreement complex interplay but profoundly shaped by May's red lines. You would hope, yes, but given the numbers tonight I am not sure I would bet the house on it.

[mountainkiss]

Corbyn withdrawing his amendment was a bad sign, though I’m slightly comforted that Blackford did too.

[andrewducker]

I think that there was an agreement behind the scenes that putting forward amendements to fail wasn't going to help anyone, and they should just get on with voting No.

(Or so I'm picking up from the commentariat. I suspect it'll be a while before we know for sure.)

[mountainkiss]

Yes, I think perhaps you're right and it's less depressing if so. I do not have a lot of faith in Mr Corbyn, though.

[skington]

I saw it said that not having earlier amendments and skipping straight to the main vote would make it harder for the Tory Whips, as they wouldn’t know who the nailed-on rebels were. Not that, in the end, it mattered.

[alithea]

Another referendum would require an extension of Article 50 though surely? And the EU would need to agree that.

[andrewducker]

They've signalled that the two things they'd extend for are a referendum and an election. (At least, that's my understanding)

[drplokta]

They might also extend by a week or two at short notice if the necessary UK legislation wasn’t quite all passed in time.

[rhythmaning]

I think the EU has said that they'd agree to an extension if it lead to greater political certainty, as a further referendum should. (Should. Not would...)

[drplokta]

Not necessarily. The Greek referendum in 2015 took eight days to organise from start to finish. You couldn’t do a legally binding referendum that quickly, but since the second referendum wasn’t legally binding, a third one to undo it doesn’t need to be.

[rhythmaning]

I'm disappointed that WHISKY! doesn't seem to be one of your options.

[danieldwilliam]

A no deal Brexit probably makes whisky cheaper.

[chickenfeet]

It's rather a shame that the EU can't just decide that the UK is incapable of governing itself and put in trustees.

[mountainkiss]

I wish DW had a Like button for this.

[alithea]

Ditto the above!

[dewline]

Speaking as a meddling outsider, better a "No Brexit" deal than a "no-deal" Brexit.

[marahmarie]

Seconding this.

[alithea]

So much yes! But then no Brexit has been my preferred option all along

[calimac]

Fascinating. I actually went to Hansard and read the final debate.

A point that some of the speakers came close to making is that the deal they were voting on is not the Brexit that the Leavers voted for, not even close. Neither is "no deal." So, since the idealized Brexit that won the referendum is not on offer, the only proper course is to back up and start over.

[nojay]

That idea of an 'idealised Brexit' implies perfectly spherical frictionless Brexit voters of unit mass and radius who all voted for exactly the same outcome for the same reasons. Instead we have Leavers who say they didn't vote to chuck foreigners out and Leavers who say they did. Ditto for bendy bananas, unelected bureaucrats, the extra money for the Health Service etc. etc.

Brexit was always a nebulous vision of the world to come with the True Believers projecting their own disparate wishes on the outcome. The only view of reality, bad things will happen if we vote Leave was derided as Project Fear and studiously disparaged and ignored.

[cmcmck]

The term 'Committee of Public Safety' begins to circulate my historian's mind alarmingly!

[danieldwilliam]

I think May will survive the VONC. My estimations are

90% - May survives

5% - May loses but wins the VOC in two weeks time (some Tories and / or the DUP administer a punishment beating)

3% - May loses and is replaced by another Tory who wins the VOC

1% - May loses and Keir Starmer or Vince Cable form a government of national unity

1% - there is a General Election.

If there is a General Election then I think the likely outcomes are each a 1/4 chance

Small Tory Majority - Tory Party still split

Small Labour Majority - Labour Party still split

SNP/LD/PC increase seats - Pro-EU influence on minority government

Things stay the same.


(There is of course the chance that the Tory Party splits, de jure on rival manifestoes or de facto through UKIP or that UKIP win 5 seats and cost the Tories 50, or the Lib Dems win 40 seats or some other crazy thing happens but not likely.

So I'm making a Corbyn Labour Government 0.5% chance of happening. More likely outcomes in my view are a Keir Starmer or Boris Johnson government.

However, and it is a huge however, I saw nothing from May that indicated that she was prepared to change her policy. There is nothing from the EU that suggests they will change their policy on May's Deal. So in 95% chance we end up with May remaining as PM we are probably looking at another vote on the same deal in about 2 weeks followed, probably defeated and followed by a second VONC immediately afterwards.

A General Election IIRC takes 6 weeks. That six weeks can't start until the Fixed Term Parliament Act two week grace period has finished so the earliest we have an election is the 14th of March with the result not known until the 15th and perhaps not clear until the next week, week starting 18th of March. T-minus 11 days.

May can remain Prime Minister for those eight weeks if she chooses and can remain PM until the new Parliament meets. See Gordon Brown passim.

[alithea]

I don't think I've ever looked forward to April so much in my life...