Conservative Leadership Challenge. What might happen next?

[andrewducker]

Possibility 1: Theresa May wins the vote of No Confidence. Nothing really changes in this case. She still has a Withdrawal Agreement she can't get through parliament.

Possibility 2a: She loses the vote of No Confidence, and the Conservatives replace her with someone more anti-EU than her, who goes for No Deal. Which splits the Conservative Party, triggering a new General Election. The victor quite possibly beats George Canning's record for shortest tenure of Prime Minister (119 days).

Possibility 2b: She loses the vote of No Confidence, and the Conservatives replace her with someone less anti-EU. Which almost certainly leads to a second referendum.

When was the last week of politics as exciting as this?

Comments

[calimac]

Maybe, maybe not. It is still possible to be, as the phrase has it, nibbled to death by ducks, even if a formal execution is not possible. May is stubborn enough to carry on, but it's still possible she might see herself as becoming an insupportable burden.

ETA: I wrote the above before checking the actual results. They look strong enough for May to have avoided a weak win of this kind. I still think, however, that the scenario I described would have possible in the event of a weak win.