Conservative Leadership Challenge. What might happen next?

[andrewducker]

Possibility 1: Theresa May wins the vote of No Confidence. Nothing really changes in this case. She still has a Withdrawal Agreement she can't get through parliament.

Possibility 2a: She loses the vote of No Confidence, and the Conservatives replace her with someone more anti-EU than her, who goes for No Deal. Which splits the Conservative Party, triggering a new General Election. The victor quite possibly beats George Canning's record for shortest tenure of Prime Minister (119 days).

Possibility 2b: She loses the vote of No Confidence, and the Conservatives replace her with someone less anti-EU. Which almost certainly leads to a second referendum.

When was the last week of politics as exciting as this?

Comments

[jack]

"When was the last week of politics as exciting as this?"

Last week? :)

[rhythmaning]

1B. May wins but only just and is politically wounded. I've no idea what happens.


Remember, Thatcher WON the first round of the leadership challenge against her with 55% of the vote (but less than the rules at the time required for her to win outright). She then resigned.


The rules (I think) are different now, a sequence of secret ballots of Tory MPs until there are only two candidates remaining, who are then put to a ballot of party members.


So she could win. But also lose...

[andrewducker]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45953182

She needs to win vote of no confidence first. If she loses she's banned from the competition.

[rhythmaning]

My mistake!

So we're not even at the leadership competition stage yet.

Jeez.

[calimac]

No, you're on the right track, even though the situations are strictly not comparable. Thatcher resigned after the first round of the leadership contest because her cabinet convinced her that she'd lose the second round. In other words, her support, though a majority in the first round, just wasn't strong enough.

If May beats the challenge, but only just barely, she might become convinced her support isn't strong enough, and her resignation would, like Thatcher's, clear the way for someone closer to her than the likely challengers to take over, someone less battered than herself who might be able to carry on better.

The best outcome for May would be something like what happened to Major when he triggered the "put up or shut up" leadership election in 1995, to win convincingly. You will note, however, that this didn't do him much actual good.

[danieldwilliam]

If she wins the confidence vote, even by 1 vote, she's free from further leadership challenges for a year.

I think that might change her view on whether a narrow victory leaves her in a strong enough position to carry on.

[calimac]

Maybe, maybe not. It is still possible to be, as the phrase has it, nibbled to death by ducks, even if a formal execution is not possible. May is stubborn enough to carry on, but it's still possible she might see herself as becoming an insupportable burden.

ETA: I wrote the above before checking the actual results. They look strong enough for May to have avoided a weak win of this kind. I still think, however, that the scenario I described would have possible in the event of a weak win.

[calimac]

I must say I'm surprised. When the Brexiters humiliatingly folded their hand after revealing they weren't anywhere near the 48 they'd claimed they almost had, I thought this issue had gone away, at least for a while. So was it the cancellation of Tuesday's vote that pushed it, not just over the edge, but all the way up to the edge and then over?

[andrewducker]

That would be my guess.

While May had momentum they were willing to see where she was going, but once she stopped the remaining good will evaporated.

There's still a chance she wins this, of course.

And then has to deal with actually getting to get a vote through.

[calimac]

I've just realized what this must look like to the EU.

Do you remember the scene in Life of Brian where the Roman guards at the palace look on in sad bewilderment as the two competing factions of Jewish rebels fight each other to the death rather than carry out their plan of kidnapping Pilate's wife?

[andrewducker]

Oh yes, we're a shambles.

Bad enough that the EU are indicating support for May (in a very limited way).
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-no-confidence-vote-eu-commission-juncker-brexit-irish-border-backstop-conservatives-a8679356.html

[nojay]

It's more like offering best wishes than "support". The EU27 are busy formulating plans to deal with the fallout of whatever happens in the UK over the next week or two knowing it's likely they'll have someone else across the negotiating table from them real soon now. Interesting times.

[danieldwilliam]

I think they even be sending us "thoughts and prayers".

[cmcmck]

Possibility one it was with a third of her party voting against her.

They made their move too soon.

Watch this space, as they say...........

[andrewducker]

Well they can't try again for a year.

That leaves no confidence in the government...

[cmcmck]

And if the SNP really want to force Labour off the shelf, perhaps they should bring it?

I hand't realised a non HM opposition party could do so, but it seems they can.