Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 12:56 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Sorry, not clear. Behind what deal? There is no workable option currently on the table. They’ve ruled out Norway and Canada plus requires a border in the Irish Sea.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:11 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] nojay
The Tories will hang together because if they break apart they lose power in the House of Commons and thus control of the Government.

There is no deal they can agree to, "Norway" has that icky free movement of people immigration requirement which millions of their voters would object to never mind payments to the EU, supremacy of the ECJ and more. Canada plus plus loses them the DUP and thus the House of Commons. There is nothing else except their fantasy Chequers cherry-picking exercise which cannot be accepted by the EU from a country outside the EU's rules since it directly contradicts the four freedoms core of the EU's structure. The Tories can't revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU because they'd lose power for a generation and more, and power is why they're in Government in the first place.

We're headed for a no-deal exit.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:13 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I do not think the statement "they will hang together" has any meaning if they are not hanging together behind something. And I do not believe (perhaps wrongly) that they will hang together behind a no-deal exit to the extent that they can get it through Parliament, given how slim their majority is. The number of people needed to block this getting through is pretty small.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:15 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
The Tories can vote for a No Deal Brexit. We effectively default on our existing obligations and become a pariah nation for a decade. Our economy shrinks by 10% in Q2 of CY2019. A quarter of million poor people die. The pound hits US$0.90. It's less than ideal but it's better than the Tory Party splitting.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:17 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Okay. I'm going to nail my colours to the mast and say that I don't think there's a majority in the party for that. I could be wrong. They don't need many people to refuse to endorse it before they lose the ability to get it through Parliament.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:34 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
You are less cynical about the Tory party than I am.

As you know, I come from a long, long line of Labour activists and whilst I might be on hiatus from the tribe you can take the boy out of Labour but you can't take the Labour out of the boy.

For enough Tories to vote to effectively bring down their own government they need to be comfortable with losing their jobs, their friends and allies losing their jobs, being banished from their tribe and risking both a Corbyn government and a permanent split in the Tory party and vote They also need to be sure that sufficient other Tories will vote with them, or else they have isolated themselves and sacrificed themselves for no good purpose.

You may be right about them but I've always been with Nye Bevan on the subject of Tories.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:41 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I mean, don't get me wrong, I do genuinely think there's a good chance of no deal - currently putting it at 40%. But I don't think that'll come from a vote. I think it'll come from the lack of one.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:59 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I'm not trying to split hairs here but what sort of scenario are you thinking of when you say not a vote.

It's open to backbenchers to trigger various proceedures in the Commons, up to and including a vote of No Confidence - so they ought to be able to force a vote.

I currently think 60%

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 02:04 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Sorry, I mean a vote that legitimises leaving the EU without a deal.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 03:51 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I see.

I think the reality is that it's all going to be murky, up to and including threats of violence. So, who knows what anyone will do.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 01:41 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I also do not think that a Tory government would survive a no-deal scenario for very long, and some of the politicians whose sole aim is the survival of the party will take this into account.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 02:00 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I fear many of them have decided that the die is cast and the only way out is to go through and out the other side.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 02:51 pm (UTC)
jack: (Default)
From: [personal profile] jack
I really hope there isn't, but most worried about labour MPs supporting a no deal (or bad deal) brexit :(

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 02:52 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

There will be some, yes. Hoey, Field, another one whom I've forgotten. But I (possibly wrongly) don't think there will be so many that it makes the passage of no deal inevitable. The Labour Party will be strongly whipped to vote against it.

Re: Labour Brexit Means ???

Date: 2018-09-24 02:53 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I think an accidental no-deal is a very real possibility, just because the clock stops ticking before there's any possibility of a deal. But I think it's pretty unlikely to be a deliberate outcome.

September 2025

S M T W T F S
  123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930    

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Sep. 1st, 2025 12:31 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios