andrewducker: (Default)
[personal profile] andrewducker

Date: 2018-04-02 08:30 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I'm sure they will get the kinks ironed out but I think it's going to take longer than the developers think and perhaps longer than their financiers lines of credit will last for some of them.

One of the most useful bits of wisdom I was given about technological innovation was this rule of thumb.

Getting a technology to the point where it is 80% ready will cost you one unit of time and one unit of money.

From 80% to 90% will cost you one unit of time and one unit of money.

From 90% to 95% ready, one unit of time, one unit of money.

95% to 98% ready, one unit of time, one unit of money.

98% to 99%, the same.

99% to 99.5%, again, one unit of time, one unit of money.

99.5% to 99.9% ready will again cost you one unit of money and one unit of time.

Now you might be able to sell things which are 80% ready but my guess is that for self-driving cars to be *fully* autonomous on a public highway then you are looking at the 99.9% readiness or more.

It's the reason why I generally think autonomous vehicles will arrive a bit more slowly than other people who are as supportive of them.

Date: 2018-04-02 08:38 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
90% there? Perhaps a bit more.

A while to go.

You can trade time for money a bit and accelerate the timelines but you can't speed up things like a test where the vehicle spends six months on the road with no software support.

Date: 2018-04-02 08:46 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
For example, to find out what happens when the owner doesn't update the software for six months because they've been busy or have sold their fleet to another operator who couldn't find the licence keys.

Or similar tests where elapsed time is important. How compromised is the autonomy if the LIDAR isn't calibrated for three or six or twelve months? Is the software able to optimise for reducing wear and tear over a two year period? What happens when the cars start going in to predominately British Asian neighbourhoods and 10% of the humans are wearing headresses and facial coverings - and you haven't recalibrated your LIDAR for six months or updated your software for three?

Date: 2018-04-02 09:01 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Possibly, possibly they will.

Probably still need to test that sort of thing out in some depth.

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