So, those election results

[andrewducker]

Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.

As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".

Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim

Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.

*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.

Comments

[doug]

Broadly agree, although I'm not sure the message from Unionists in Scotland who voted tactically for the Conservatives against the SNP was completely pointless: the dramatically reduced number of seats for the SNP at Westminster does make a second IndyRef look less likely. And the outcome of this election is evidence in favour of the idea that it's perhaps better to avoid votes you don't really want, even if the opinion polling says you will win them.

The DUP are terrible in many ways but they definitely do not want a hard border with the Republic, which makes a hard Brexit less obviously the UK Government position. On the other hand, I'm not sure the EU is prepared to offer much other than a hard Brexit unless we keep freedom of movement and European court jurisdictions, which would be almost impossible for the Tories to accept for fear of losing even more ex-UKIP support to Labour.

I'm sure there'll be some sort of Tory-DUP deal but it's going to be knife-edge stuff in Parliament for anything controversial - all but the safest of Tory MPs are going to be ultrasensitive about pissing off their constituents. Brexit, of course, doesn't require much any more by way of votes in Parliament ...

This is a complete dog's breakfast of a situation to be in.

[doug]

I'm sure there'll be some sort of Tory-DUP deal

Hah! Well that prediction held up well for once: immediately after clicking Post on that I saw a headline "Theresa May reaches deal with DUP to form government after shock election result".

[calimac]

I haven't been so gobsmacked by something in British politics since the time Edwina Currie revealed you-know-what, almost as unholy a union of deplorables.

[calimac]

So what does the DUP want anyway? They don't want special status for NI, because that would create trade barriers with the rest of the UK. But they also don't want a hard border with the Republic. The only way to avoid one of these things is for the UK to remain in the EU, but they don't want that either. So what do they want?

[doug]

Special status for NI is also anathema to the DUP because it looks like a stepping stone to splitting off NI from the rest of the UK - Sinn Fein are keen on that plan for a good reason.

I think the DUP want a sort of EEA/Common Market type arrangement. It's the only arrangement that'd gets them what they want. It'd probably be reasonably popular as a muddy compromise by most people in most parts of the UK. The kicker, though, is that the rest of the EU will almost certainly not agree without the UK also accepting freedom of movement, contribution to the budget, and EU court jurisdiction, like Norway and Switzerland - and those are all anathema to the hardline Brexiteers in the Tory party, who are not going to be in a mood to compromise with a wafer-thin majority. Although David Davis was making emollient noises that way this morning, so you never know.

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not convinced it make a second independence referendum less likely.

I think Sturgeon's plan was never to hold one "now" but to hold one at the back end of the Brexit negotiations once the reality of the outcome had sunk in a bit.

The 35 SNP MP's probably have more influence over a minority government than 50+ SNP MP's had over a majority Tory government so they could be able to winkle a new Edinburgh Agreement out of the Tories.

Public opinion on the independence question remains at about 55:45. It doesn't seem to have moved since Sept 2014. What I think has changed is that pro-independence voters have disassociated themselves from the SNP or think the independence question isn't pressing. They still support independence but they are voting for other parties on other issues.

So, in the event that as Brexit ripens it produces a majority for independence in Scotland then the SNP probably have the political wherewithal to have a referendum. This is probably more true if any Tories in marginal seats have heart attacks or sign book deals over the next 18 months.

(I don't hold the above view very strongly.)

[danieldwilliam]

Dog's breakfast just about sums it up.

I'm not convinced that the DUP and *all* the Tories can play nicely together whilst negotiating Brexit.

[doug]

I don't think the Tories can play nicely with themselves, come to that. I strongly suspect that being worried about Tory rebellions was one of the main drivers for Theresa May to call the election in the first place, and given that she is a naturally over-cautious person, I infer that it must have been a very well-grounded fear.

[danieldwilliam]

Yeah, I concur

[splodgenoodles]

FPTP is such a bad idea! Especially when people want to "send a message".

[kerkevik_2014]

If not for 2015 this would be called an SNP triumph.

What is has demonstrated is, rather like the Tories, in seeking to end a question once and for all; all they've succeeded in doing is dividing a nation almost beyond repair.

Even at the height of the electoral power the SNP could not command a majority for independence; yet they went ahead with a referendum anyway.

Now they've let the Tories in wih, more dangerously, the only truly effective party leader north of the border.

I doubt I'll live to see the changes the new generation of Lib Dems; not borne of the Liberal Party or the SDP, will make, but they are the future for us.

We'll see how much of a deal has been struck, but the DUP 'may' come to rue this day if 'tis true.

Sinn Fein may have achieved success but, if you look at the picture over the whole island they are looking increasingly as isolated as the DUP is in UK terms.

[calimac]

Which is why I was puzzled by the SNP's sanguine attitude towards the election, as they had nowhere to go but down.

[andrewducker]

The SNP let the Tories in?

I'm blaming people who were in SNP seats, and decided not to vote tactically, but instead to vote for a party who wouldn't win. Or, worse, for the Conservatives.

[movingfinger]

I call that "the dumbass vote."

[poshmerchant]

If UK's anything like Canada, there were people who didn't know anything about their own riding who voted tactically based on a country-wide polling rather than local polling. Tactical voting is not easy to do right.

[cmcmck]

Even if she can form a govt, I give it six months before we're back here again.

Oh joy! :o(

[calimac]

How long do you give her as PM of it? Surely the knives will be out. But who else? Boris? Hammond?

[danieldwilliam]

I think my base case is that she won't last long as Prime Minister.

Between ambitious cabinet ministers, disgruntled backbenchers and the real political difficulty of sheperding Brexit and any other legislation through a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP there is plenty to go wrong for her. Whether that's her losing a vote of no confidence or being sacked as Conservative Leader or deciding that she, in fact, doesn't want the job I don't know.

I think perhaps the main advantage she has is that maybe no one in the Tory Party fancies being the next Tory leader given the circumstances.

[cmcmck]

Boris, Fox and perhaps Davies who's an inveterate plotter. I suspect her time may be even more limited as damaged goods.

[danieldwilliam]

I am laughing *so* hard right now.