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[personal profile] andrewducker

Date: 2012-06-19 11:32 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com
> "In a sense, the Energiewende is a political statement without a technical solution,"

Wasn't that a little bit how the space race went too?

Date: 2012-06-19 12:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
It’s a big gamble for the Germans and a big opportunity for anyone else who has access to lots of renewable energy potential.

For example there are proposals for two subsea interconnectors between Germany and Norway totalling 2.8 GW (about the size of two large coal plants or 400-600 offshore wind turbines)


If I were German energy minister I wouldn’t be switching off the nukes and I can see the decision being reversed as the closure dates get closer and the power prices start to increase. I’m not suggesting they are insincere about their shift to renewables but I think they’ll go back to using nuclear as a baseload generating technology as part of a smoother slower transition.

Date: 2012-06-19 01:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-pawson.livejournal.com
I'm not sure they will reverse the decision. There is sizable opposition to nuclear power in Germany and not one of the various political parties opposed the decision.

Date: 2012-06-19 05:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fub.livejournal.com
Right, it's quite easy to be against nuclear power. Until energy prices start to rise and you have to pay a lot more. Or until you realise that energy prices are kept artificially low by subsidies -- that you pay for in other taxes.

Date: 2012-06-20 09:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I guess we’ll see.

I certainly agree with you about the opposition to nukes in Germany.

I think the opposition might soften when some of the implications of the decision start to land in the form of higher electricity bills, job losses and more high-voltage cables running across the country. Whether it softens enough to persuade the Germans to leave the nukes on is a moot point.

Date: 2012-06-20 09:45 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
They probably do need some significant break-throughs in technology but I think there is a lot they could do with stuff that already exists but which isn't linked together yet.

There are lots of opportunities to use interconnectors as back up supply and a demand sink. Essentially you can push the problem of having a grid that has larger than normal short-term fluctuations onto the grids surrounding you (usually in exchange for money).

I’m also intrigued by their work on aggregating small generators into a bank of responsive back-up supply. You could use domestic micro-generation and micro-demand sites like a CERES fuel cell micro-CHP and fridges to balance the grid in the short term.

If they succeed it’s a huge step forward for European industry. Lots of technology to sell abroad, not-crazy-expensive energy for the foreseeable future, and a tasty opportunity to beat up foreigners (and their industrial base) for being carbon intensive.

Date: 2012-06-20 10:21 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Aye – it works as a plan until the massive heat wave or big chill means that everyone is short of supply.

But then I think all energy strategies have weak points.

But generally, a more interconnected European grid is a good thing.

We still get the opportunity to do business as part of this German push to find ways to accommodate more renewables on their grid and we get to piggy back on their successes and avoid their mistakes. I think a decent argument could be made for second mover advantage here.

Date: 2012-06-20 10:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
We probably don't end up with so many as they do but there are still opportunities for us to sell our own developments into their market.

So opportunities for us to develope patentable technology and saleable skills - but done whilst breaking the German grid, rather than our own.

I'd still rather we were doing what Germany was doing but I don't think it's going to be a entirely German effort.

Date: 2012-06-20 01:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Although our nukes get turned off soon as a result of being old and knackered.

But the smaller older ones first so we have a bit of time to sort ourselves out.

Date: 2012-06-19 04:22 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anton-p-nym.livejournal.com
True, but the cost of a failed Apollo mission is measured in lost $billions, political egg-on-face, and perhaps the lives of a dozen or so astronauts; bad, but nothing that'd seriously hurt the US economy or most of its taxpayers.

The failure of Germany's energy dice-roll would cost a lot more, possibly including permanent damage to the nation's economy and a drop in standard-of-living for the whole country.

-- Steve certainly wouldn't want to be the one rolling dice for those stakes.

Date: 2012-06-19 12:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] skreidle.livejournal.com
I'm surprised to hear you didn't like ' Inception'--I thought it was a stroke of movie genius.

Date: 2012-06-19 01:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-pawson.livejournal.com
I agree, it was far from perfect. I think it only received the adulation it did because it was a fairly intelligent movie that was also a hugely successful blockbuster. Had it been made on a small budget by a relatively unknown director I doubt it would have been as warmly received.

Date: 2012-06-19 02:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
I think I am with Andy on this one. Sigh. Plot twists, I wish there really were any that work. I almost always spot plot 'twists' extremely early - think the only one to almost catch me was The Usual Suspects (I got it 5 mins before the reveal, very late compared with my record, which was The Sixth Sense which I got in the first few seconds).

Date: 2012-06-19 09:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com
I quite liked Inception, but one of the things it's brought home to me is how some people's brains work entirely differently to other people's. For me - and I suspect you - it was no effort at all to keep track of which level of dream was on screen at a given time, and how they related to each other. It was an interesting conceit, but not an earth-shattering blow-your-mind can't-get-my-head-around-it experience. But for many (intelligent!) people, it was very much brain-stretching time.

It's probably related to people who can easily track variables across a series of nested function calls. Just about everyone who writes code can do this, no problem, but being able to do that is not a feature of all human brains.

There's a similar thing going on with time travel - again, many people (probably the majority on your journal!) have no particular difficulty with this. So, for instance, the timey-wimey stuff on NuWho is hardly brain-bending by general sf standards, but for some people it's completely mindblowing. The Time Traveller's Wife (book and film) is another example - few fannish/geeky people would have found the time travel aspect there particularly challenging, but many other readers did.
From: [identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com
LOL.

Although to be fair, it's really hard to write convincingly about characters forgetting things: even when it's realistic, it's hard to make it LOOK realistic, rather than "artificially dragging things out" or "covering up a plot twist" :)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
Katherine Kerr's fantasy has people doing almost all of these things.
From: [identity profile] fub.livejournal.com
The list reminded me of Diane Jones' "The Rough Guide to Fantasyland", which is a great 'reference' for all fantasy clichés.
From: [identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com
ROFL. That article seems ever so apt :)

Although it bugs me that descriptions of the book seem to always say "college graduate"? Surely it's not unlikely that the businessman is also a college graduate? That's a bit of a vapid summary of someone. If they mean "young and intelligent", why don't they say so?

Date: 2012-06-19 12:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com
Edit: Some places say "recent college graduate" which seems fair enough. I'm honestly not sure if my sudden and random ire was based in pedantry or gender equality :)
From: [identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com
:) I tend to agree -- I feel like I owe £10 to someone but I'm not sure who :)

A slightly more serious side to the question is that I think people are interested in prometheus because raises interesting questions about where humanity and aliens come from, even though the way it deals with them is generally dumb. Someone pointed out it may make somewhat more sense when we see a director's cut (I hope so, though I'm not sure how original it will be).

So does it deserve praise for raising any philosophical questions in a big blockbuster? Or scorn for being kind of dumb with them? On balance, probably both... :)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
See, to me "where we come from" is not at all a mystery. There's already a perfectly good, workable explanation (i.e. cosmology + evolution) - OK we are adding details but it's seriously just not a mystery. So it's a nothing point for me and so you can't hang a whole film on it.

Hanging a film on how people deal with there being no creator and no purpose is, and can be, supremely interesting - however that's what Prometheus just didn't do....
Edited Date: 2012-06-19 03:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
ooh now haven't seen that for AGES... will have to watch and report back!
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I think the “created by aliens” trope just changes the question from “where did we come from?” to “where did they come from?”
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Probably for the best.

We wouldn't want our aliens to be different now.

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