I remember when people thought the future wouldn't happen

[andrewducker]

I remember when people told me that the CD would never catch on, because people liked the ceremony of placing a piece of vinyl on a turntable. That the sound just wasn't as good. And, of course, that nobody would replace their beautiful album covers with these tiny squares of plastic.

I remember when people told me that MP3s would never catch on, because people liked having a physical object to hold in their hands and see on their shelves. That the quality wasn't the same. And, of course, you wouldn't have any cover art at all.

I remember when people told me that ebooks would never catch on, because listening to songs digitally was one thing, but people want to hold a book in their hands. That the experience would be different without that reassuring weight. And, of course, there's nothing like new book smell.

I remember when people told me that Steam wouldn't catch on. That people want to have a physical box for their game. That just knowing it's there at the other end of the internet isn't secure enough, when it might vanish into the ether at any moment. And, of course, the experience of opening the box for the first time is irreplaceable.

And I wonder what the next thing that will never catch on will be. What the next thing that is a natural part of human existence, that nobody would ever change, will be.

Comments

[miss_s_b]

Oddly Mat and I were talking the other day about the crap sound quality of MP3s. We are going to be setting up the turntable for the vinyl in the new house.

[andrewducker]

Have you been recording them at too low a bitrate?

I know of a couple of places online where complaints about "MP3 being rubbish" is met by demands to carry out a blind listening test :->

[matgb]

Don't actually know-I was using the N8's FM transmitter to play through the stereo, and the lack of depth (it was a Therapy song) was palpable. I don't know what bitrate I did it to, but there were a bunch of other songs, including stuff I ripped recently at high rates, that also suffered.

MP3 by definition takes some of the depth of sound out, it's not noticeable on small speakers, but when you're filling the room with some stuff it can be.

[andrewducker]

In that case it's almost certainly whatever it is you're playing it through - 256kBit MP3s are indistinguishable from CDs to 99.9% of the population.

[andrewhickey.info]

Yeah, but not indistinguishable from vinyl, which is what they're talking about ;)
I'm finally going to be setting up my turntable again next month, after a couple of years as MP3/FLAC only, so when I get the Smile Sessions box set I'll be able to listen to the vinyl parts of that.

[andrewducker]

Oh, absolutely. Vinyl has that whole crackly, warm distortion thing going on that some people like. I understand that some people have attachments to the way that particular technologies make things sound/feel/look.

[miss_s_b]

Oh they are fine through headphones. We really notice the difference playing them through Mat's posh stereo that he won on his gold run on Blockbusters

[matgb]

I'm trying to read A Dance With Dragons at the moment. It's possibly the biggest hardback I've tried to read since Jonathan Strange.

A Kindle or similar has never been more appealing, I suspect I'd be a lot further into it if I could hold the damn thing.

I knew CDs would catch on, portable, easy. I also knew there was a loss of quality, but most people wouldn't notice and take the tradeoff.

It would be really nice to see 'working in an office' as the next one.

[andrewducker]

It was The Baroque Cycle that pushed me to ebooks. Just too damn big to carry around.

[birguslatro]

I hated optical disks from the start and have continued to hate them. A 'new' method of storing digital data that was mechanical just seemed wrong. Plus they were worse to handle than floppy-disks. And then they proved to have lots of flaws in use.

And I kinda consider the current craze for touch-screen devices wrong too. Two strikes against them: Touching the screen smears the screen. And touching the screen means you can't see the screen because your hand's in the way.

And I wonder what the next thing that will never catch on will be. What the next thing that is a natural part of human existence, that nobody would ever change, will be.

Bitcoins? So there's no third-parties between buyer and seller?

[andrewducker]

Of course, some people still use vinyl. And CDs. And physical books. And have boxes with games in them. And I suspect there will always be a market for some of each of those things.

And I was set off by reading this post.

[jfargo.livejournal.com]

I remember when people said computers would never catch on, that they were just for secretaries and similar professions but having one in your home would be ridiculous and they'd fade away after a few years.

I remember when people told me the internet wouldn't catch on. It was just a way for nerds to communicate about stupid stuff and nobody in the real world would ever care about it in any way shape or form. It was just a fad.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

Y'know, I still prefer to buy CDs over buying MP3s online and still buy movies on DVDs. (Never could afford a good turntable, or even the space for one, so I missed the vinyl craze. And jumping away from VHS is not something I regret.)

I still don't do e-books in any serious way... and grumble at Steam when starting the one game (Dawn of War II) that insists on that particular form of always-on DRM.

I'm not saying that the services aren't popular... just that they're not for me.

-- Steve still has qualms about books with DRM. Built-in memory-holes hit some of his paranoia bumps.

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

I think a better solution than not buying ebooks then is to not buy DRM'd ebooks, which is what I do (partly through choice, partly because no major DRM 'provider' will support GNU/Linux)

[recycled-sales.livejournal.com]

I don't think I remember as many people eulogising about the demise of the vendor as did about the demise of the medium.

More people seem to assume the shop will survive, and yet
They're the only ones that seem to be dying.

[andrewducker]

I'm sure I've been reading about disintermediation for as long as there's been a commercial internet.

[tysolna]

I think it all went downhill when we invented the wheel.

[andrewducker]

Logs were clearly better.

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

Logs? LOGS? Back in my day we just walked. Well, I say walked... it was more "frantically running, pursued by sabretooth tiger"

[apostle-of-eris.livejournal.com]

feet? You had FEET? We had to evolve our own pseudopods!

[khbrown.livejournal.com]

"That just knowing it's there at the other end of the internet isn't secure enough, when it might vanish into the ether at any moment."

If there is a central point of access/control, how can you be sure that it won't vanish? Thinking of Amazon recalling Orwell's 1984, for instance.

If it's distributed, then fine - e.g. Scarlett Johansson photos will always now be available, regardless of what she does - but concerned about the internet having 'an' end as opposed to multiple redundant ends.

[andrewducker]

I can't be sure it won't vanish.

If Steam vanished tomorrow, I'd lose access to a bunch of games I've already played, and three or four I haven't played yet.

I don't really replay games much, so that doesn't bother me. It's only the sunk cost that does - and I balanced the risk of it vanishing tomorrow against the fact that I picked up those games at half price (or less).

[spacelem.livejournal.com]

I still like physical things, that hasn't gone away. I've a decent CD, DVD and book library to testify to that. Also, plenty of people still use vinyl, and books don't seem to have stopped selling just yet...

With regards to CDs though, while Jules is frequently found playing them (and even audio cassettes!) in the kitchen, I think they scratch too easily, and I wouldn't trust a game on a CD or DVD to still work 10 years later. Right now I trust Steam (or my hard drive) more. I'll use whichever format is least degradable for things I want to keep. Also, mp3s and avi files are incredibly convenient and quick. Then again, I don't own a TV, so I'm not exactly up to date in all respects.

[strawberryfrog.livejournal.com]

I remember when there was personal privacy and state secrets.

[andrewducker]

Aaah, we won't see days like those again.

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

There's still personal privacy for people who a] aren't celebrities and b] are aware that they don't have to share things.

Regrettably many people want to think they're like A and don't care about B either through ignorance or deliberate choice.

People who rant about the lack of privacy on facebook are hilarious, since there's plenty of privacy on facebook if you make an effort, or don't go on it. Sure, no one can find you, but it's like being ex-directory Back In The Past, people have to make an effort to contact you. If you think people won't do that, well, that says more about the people you know than anything else.

[strawberryfrog.livejournal.com]

There's still personal privacy for people who don't use credit cards, public transport using a card registered to their name, facebook, etc... And can't be recognised by a CCTV camera.

Information about yout from Facebook, google, amazon et al isn't public ... yet ... but it's available already if the right people ask.

[bohemiancoast.livejournal.com]

Teledildonics.

[andrewducker]

Well, Dildonics now seems to be entirely mainstream (at least, for women), but I haven't seen any sign that there's anything practical on the way for remote users - except voice, of course, which has been around for ages.

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

There's one chat/hookup website that has an associated limited range of toys available for use through the website's interface.

[cybik.livejournal.com]

I have read ebooks. I haven't paid for one, though, because the books I've read are either classics (which I already own but is at my parents' house or elsewhere) or it's something I am extremely unlikely to reread. I do, however, reread the majority of my books. Also, I've never come across any website or ebooks that is as lovely as some of the art books I own. And instructional craft or art or recipe books in ebook form wouldn't be as able to be *right there* as those in paper form - my recipe books have food splashes, my metalworking books sometimes have scratches, etc. I'm sure these issues will be dealt with, but I'm sure I will never *love* an ebook in the same way that I love my physical books. To me (I am not saying this is universal - I know many people who love their kindles), books are really, really important. Ebooks will not replace books for *me* (or my parents).

[andrewducker]

The same will probably be true of things like illustrated children's books, reference books, and schoolbooks. Anything with lots of illustrations, the need to write notes on it, or the need to have multiple pages open at the same time will be more useful in printed format.

[cairmen.livejournal.com]

The big one for me was cameraphones. I remember virtually everyone I knew saying that they were pointless - why would you ever need a camera in your phone?

[andrewducker]

I wonder what happened to the marketshare of point and click cameras...

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

Mostly people admitted they didn't really want good quality photos, and were happy with crap quality ones from cameraphones.

It's only the last year or two that phones (other than a specific few, mostly SE ones) have actually had -good- cameras in them.

Also, since the main place those photos are being put is on facebook, quality isn't really relevant.

[strawberryfrog.livejournal.com]

Ask and ye shall get data 9The iPhone 4 is now Flickr’s most popular camera)

I had a bit of cognitive dissonance the other day - I got out a point-and-click camera (a 12Mp Nikon coolpix, a few years old now) and as I turned it on, someone said to me "oh, it's a real camera". I cycled through thinking "It's not a real camera, it doesn't have film" - "no, it's not a DSLR" (I covet DSLRS), then I realised that to them a "real" camera meant "not a phone".

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Huh, CDs* are the only thing on that list that I've succumbed to and I still listen to my cassettes sometimes... There's reason why I call myself a luddite!

*Okay, technically I have some music in MP3 format, but it's still on a CD and I never listen to them at the moment because my stereo can't play them and this stupid work laptop can't play music and do anything else at the same time :(

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

There's a difference between things that are actually better replacing old ones, and things where you're not given the opportunity to continue using the old version.

[octopoid-horror.livejournal.com]

Speaking of Steam, I would be interested if you had stats of sales of console games, physical vs digital, since I've never seen those and given the PC game markets limited sales of titles like CoD games, I'd be curious to know whether people are buying big name xbox games on XBL or in stores.

Even before Steam was as popular as it is, a lot of physical stores didn't really stock that many PC games, so Amazon etc became a better option. Of course, at the point where you're already buying it online and having the hassle of postage and delivery problems, it's a short step from there to buying it digitally. Essentially, physical retailers not bothering with PC games certainly contributed to Steam's rise.

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

you're all going to end up living in the matrix. You clearly don't need your fleshbags and can exist virtually all round.

[andrewducker]

I like my fleshbag! It feels good! If I can't take it (or something equally good) with me into the Matrix, I aint going!

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

never mind how fun they are for interacting with other people's fleshbags *waggles eyebrows*

[andrewducker]

Mmmmm, fleshbags.

[soon_lee]

With wines it was cork vs screwcap. That has largely been won by screwcaps; in New Zealand, probably a good 90%+ of wines produced are under screwcap closures.

As for catching on, it depends on definition. Does it mean that enough people adopt it to become commercially successful or that it becomes the dominant mode? It might be a bit early to say Steam has caught on.

[apostle-of-eris.livejournal.com]

get some perspective
This stuff has just begun to be invented. "Modern" currently seems to mean less than six weeks old. "Vintage" means the paint is dry.
I'm not sure how fast the rate of change is accelerating, but we're still closer to the beginning of the beginning than the end of the beginning.
“It’s earlier than you think.”

[joexnz.livejournal.com]

the things you have listed have all disassociated information from their traditional media

I can't think of anything else that i regularly do where you could do that, i'm sure theres something!!!

Personally i know the national gallery in london has been working on different ways of scanning art to produce better posters. I'd like a wee projector that attaches to my ceiling/wall and beams a good solid poster quality image on to my wall, and has the capacity for a number of these images and can change them at a duration of my choosing.

But then i like art

[andrewducker]

Yup - all of the above are digitisable.

The question of how much we can digitise art is interesting to me. Even paintings have a 3D part to them, especially close up.

And we can't digitise smell, touch, or taste. At least, not yet. Once we can, then things will get interesting :->