Date: 2011-06-22 11:06 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.livejournal.com
As I understand it, government spending will rise throughout this parliament. But the rate at which it will be rising will be decelerating, and a greater proportion of the spending will be going on paying off the interest on the debt the previous government racked up.

Date: 2011-06-22 03:42 pm (UTC)
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)
From: [personal profile] matgb
This, pretty much. I have a set of the figures DLd to write up, with graphs, as I'm annoyed about it for the same reason as Nelson, which is odd--I found myself agreeing with a known lunatic fringe extremist, so went and checked all my facts.

They were right. I have no clue why the Govt is still talking up the severity of the cuts when the reality is they're really quite small in total cash terms.

Of course, for those areas hit the most, they're not small, and some Depts are really getting gutted, but others aren't.

The real freaky thing is to look at the 2007 budget report and compare their projections to what actually happened.

Date: 2011-06-22 11:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kerrypolka.livejournal.com
About releasing the census data, pointing out government contractor failures is always good fun but I'm really worried about the safety of domestic abuse survivors and the like. :/

Date: 2011-06-22 11:10 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com
> Why contracting sucks

Yup.

Date: 2011-06-22 11:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.livejournal.com
And that bit about self-publishing is flawed in a couple of ways. The line about most people selling fewer than 100 books is clearly nonsense - I've sold 304 books in just over six months, and that's without actually bothering with promotion.
Also, there's no real pressure to drive down prices. I experimented with pricing my Kindle books at 99 cents, and saw a slight rise in sales, but not enough to make up for the lost revenue compared to pricing them at $5. When people buy books they're only comparing against a fairly small reference class - someone who wants to buy my book on the Beatles is not instead going to buy Amanda Hocking's stories of vampires in high school because they're a couple of quid cheaper.

Date: 2011-06-22 11:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
This is how I feel about wine. And whisky. And coffee.

I think for any given "X" you can find someone who will say the equivalent of "I can't tell good X from bad X and don't care", with a possible exception when X is sex.

Nokia’s MeeGo-Based N9 Is Sleek and Hot.

Looks great but it won't replace my N900 without a keyboard. :(

Date: 2011-06-22 11:52 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
They genuinely believe they couldn't tell a bad sexual experience from a good one. (I mean as distinct from not particularly caring about or wanting sex or don't enjoy it?) I categorise that as odd.

Date: 2011-06-22 12:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Well, for me, the correct analogy with wine, is do you believe they could tell the difference between a clumsy fumble with a nervous virgin and a passionate evening with an experienced lover (feel free to add in emotional side if you feel it important). I'd be genuinely surprised by someone (unless they had specific medical issues) who didn't believe they could tell a qualitative difference. However, it was merely intended as a throwaway remark.

Date: 2011-06-22 12:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
I suspect they'd find both offputting and frustrating - because they don't like the whole experience.

Certainly granted.

Date: 2011-06-22 12:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Oh, and for me, the one I'd really like to know the answer to is exactly how many of my coffee-snob friends who go "Ugh, decaff, yuck" can actually tell.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:23 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Soy has a really distinctive mouthfeel IMHO. I am pretty sure I could tell soy and I'm a sceptic on these things (I read a lot about the "what can people genuinely tell" sort of lit -- my favourite being that with their nose stopped the average person can't tell an apple from a potato).

Date: 2011-06-22 01:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
I thought it was apples and onions that tasted the same?

Hmm... that's less convincing because they're very texturally different (onions having layers) but I can't find a good link.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] spacelem.livejournal.com
Nice experiment, but since we don't go round eating with our noses stopped most of the time, it's not worth very much. All it proves is that our sense of smell plays a significant role in our ability to taste things.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
All it proves is that our sense of smell plays a significant role in our ability to taste things.

Absolutely, but most people don't know quite how much.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] spacelem.livejournal.com
I do recall back at primary school that if you didn't like something at mealtime then eating it with your nose pinched tended to help (and this was an boarding school in Yorkshire in the late 80s, so leaving it wasn't an option).

Weirdly I could never stand curry back then, and I'd cry if I was forced to eat it (even with nose pinched and a glass of water). I love it now.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Oh, incidentally, my "is this triumph or cruelty" moment for this one was a friend who agonised for ages about what colour to paint her walls and gave me a long talk about the tyranny of "bland magnolia". She put a lot of thought into it.

You can see what comes next. I ripped the colour samples out of her colour book and asked her to pick. She got it wrong.

Sometimes I wonder why people still hang out with me.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] channelpenguin.livejournal.com
Unfortunately, I can DEFINITELY tell decaff coffee/tea (unless it's ultra-piss-weak I suppose). If anyone can manage to find anything that fools me I'd be DELIGHTED!!!!

I don't take milk or sugar, you see.... makes it really obvious.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Would you have also said you could definitely tell red wine from room temperature white wine with food colouring? I certainly would have said that before seeing the experiment Andrew linked to (well, I'd seen that one before but you take my point) but I would have been wrong.

I don't take milk or sugar and I've done the experiment. I can't tell decaff from caff using similar cost cheap coffee brands.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Incidentally I do have a friend with an intolerance for caffeine. She's a foodie and a wine snob with educated taste buds. She cannot reliably tell caff from decaff until the chemical after effects make her ill later although she is highly motivated to learn the difference. As restaurants and coffee shops semi-regularly f... it up and serve her caff when she clearly requests decaff this is an issue.

[I do believe that most people can tell coffee from grounds versus instant -- which I guess leads more people to think they can tell decaff from caff].

Date: 2011-06-22 01:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
With vodka in I'm pretty sure I could not tell.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] spacelem.livejournal.com
When I worked for the police box coffee bars I could definitely tell the difference. The decaff tended to taste slightly burnt, and I didn't like it much.

Nowadays I keep a jar of decaff handy for when it's late but I really want a cup of coffee. Decaff seems to have less bite to it than regular coffee, and I need an extra half teaspoon to get the same taste.

I do tend to have pretty much the same amount of caffeine from day to day, and I can tell the difference if I have significantly more or less, so I'd be able to tell if it was decaff even if I failed the taste test when I wasn't jumping up and down an hour or so later.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com

Decaff seems to have less bite to it than regular coffee


That's just about the strength of the particular coffee you are using though surely? Caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee comes in stronger and milder flavours.

I'd be able to tell if it was decaff even if I failed the taste test when I wasn't jumping up and down an hour or so later.

Certainly I'd believe this.

Date: 2011-06-22 02:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] spacelem.livejournal.com
That's just about the strength of the particular coffee you are using though surely? Caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee comes in stronger and milder flavours.

Maybe (although I am using the same brand of coffee for decaff and regular). I mentioned that decaff lacks a certain "bite" that isn't quite compensated for by adding in extra coffee. I'll need to experiment a little, although preferably at a weekend when I'm not interested in getting much else done ;)

Date: 2011-06-22 03:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Be interested to know, particularly a like-for-like comparison (no fair telling $15 a jar ground coffee from $3 a jar powder).

Date: 2011-06-22 12:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
Re: the wine stuff -- yes, I've seen that kind of thing before.

My summary of the best statistical evidence.

1) An educated palate is price sensitive and will prefer more expensive wine (statistical correlation in blind tests).
2) An uneducated palate is not (no statistical correlation in tests).
3) The positive results in 1) can be thrown off by presentation (colouring wine, changing bottle etc).

The red wine/white wine test you cite is a slightly silly one as I doubt most wine critics would regularly drink warm white wine so how would they know what it *should* taste like. Sort of like complaining someone can't recognise good quality steak when it's gone through a blender and been spoonfed to them as smoothie.

Where the line between 1) and 2) is, is hard to judge.

For comparison, I don't know if you remember, there was a similar experiment done with Vista where people were told it was shiny and new and asked to test it (with a few disguised buttons). It turns out that this got a great reception compared with Vista. Does this mean that there's no particular quality difference between operating systems? No, it just means you can prime people to think strange things.

Date: 2011-06-22 12:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
(1) isn't telling you much more than "I've tasted this before, and it was in an expensive bottle."

I'm afraid that does not fit with the existing statistical evidence (and indeed is against it) since in an unprepared blind test the experts (rather famously) cannot reliably place the wine even by country so definitely cannot detect which bottle it comes in.

[Your hypothesis was a bit reaching anyway IMHO, it would be a bizarre system where people's palates were sufficiently good to distinguish exactly which bottle a wine belonged to but not tell when the same wine was served in different bottles.]

I guess you could hypothesise that there's an "expensive winey sort of a taste" which experts don't really enjoy but have somehow learned to detect and say they prefer even though they don't actually "prefer" it.

[Expensive wines taste different->experts can detect this->experts say they prefer expensive wines in blind tests].

However, that hypothesis is really indistinguishable from them actually enjoying it without some kind of neuroscan and, for me, I think it's easier to just say that they do enjoy the expensive wine more.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] steer.livejournal.com
In the blind taste there were no bottles shown. Clearly from your link if you move wines between bottles then the preferences will change and people will have different preferences for different bottles.

However, and this is an important however, you may be aware of the compliance experiment where people are shown two lines one of which is clearly longer than the other. If sufficient "stooges" step forward to say that the shorter line is longer then so will a good percentage of experimentees. Without the priming, the candidates can definitely tell line A is longer than line B).

We don't need to move to the subjective "that wine bottle is expensive, I will pretend to prefer that wine", within an objective context with a known correct answer which is observable and obviously objectively correct a lot of people will go with what they think the crowd believes.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I was reading in a book on cognative midfullness an anecdote about a chap who had been invited to a dinner party at a Japanese acquanitance and promised the very special culinary experience of some blow fish.

He had prepared himself for the experience by thinking about it all day and then really concentrated on the meal. It was delicious, the most special thing he’d eaten, ever. Turned out to be tuna and the only difference was how much effort he had put into experiencing the meal because he thought it was special.

Date: 2011-06-22 01:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I once did some inconclusive experiments putting vodka or gin around the rim of a glass of water.

Reading the anecdote I became much more aware of how often I eat mechanically and how much more I enjoy food when it is combined with a bit of theatre, ritual and good company - such as a dinner party.

Date: 2011-07-05 09:24 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I am pretty sure I can taste the difference between water in different parts of the country. I like the water in Aberdeen. It seems to taste sweeter. I think it’s a result of being snowmelt and having travelled over granite. I don’t like the water in London which tastes tired and used.

I’m not sure I could pick them in a blind taste test.

I’m not sure this is a problem if I’m buying the experience rather than the chemcials.

Date: 2011-06-22 12:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] eatsoylentgreen.livejournal.com
I think there is good stuff but in both of our angry anglophonic countries we have factories which bury the good stuff in a mound of dreck.

Date: 2011-06-22 05:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] johncoxon.livejournal.com
What annoys me most about the xkcd strip is that he seems to insinuate that being a connoisseur in photographs of Joe Biden is as pointless as being a connoisseur in wine, whereas I would argue that a lot more people derive joy from wine than from photographs of Joe Biden. I would also point out that Randall Monroe is a connoisseur of technology – you can easily replace the man saying 'how do you stand this cheap wine?' with 'how can you stand that locked-down operating system?' and make the entire joke at the expense of the FOSS movement – so the joke feels a little bit hypocritical.

Having said that, I often feel xkcd suffers from the fact that it's so big. I preferred it when it was uncool, being a connoisseur in webcomics (I appear to remember we were on a panel at the 2008 Eastercon?).

Full disclosure: my favourite wine is the £4 bottle of Chilean white wine they sell at the Co-Op, because it's dead cheap. There's definitely a difference between good and bad coffee, though, and even I can tell the difference between good and bad whisky in a blind taste test despite the fact that I detest the stuff (bad whisky is a lot more bad than good whisky, but good whisky is still awful).
Edited Date: 2011-06-22 05:24 pm (UTC)

Date: 2011-06-22 11:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] johncoxon.livejournal.com
But many people, when first trying to use a computer, or first eating an olive, or first doing exercise, make a nasty face and clearly don't like it. People then form tribal groups and subcultures around software vendors, or particular supermarkets that sell very nice olives, or forms of exercise.

Intoxication, I would argue, has very little to do with it. I know several people who don't like wine, so drink alcopops and cocktails instead because they like the flavour. If one's drive is to become intoxicated there are ways of doing so that don't require having to acquire a taste for wine, in a similar way that people who don't like tobacco often take cannabis in cakes and other foodstuffs as an alternative.

The insinuation that Munroe's subcultures/interests are somehow superior to those of wine buffs makes me uneasy, and it's along similar lines as the recent comic in which he laid out why he was superior to sports' fans. I don't like the idea that any community is superior to any other community and it's rapidly turning me off his webcomic.

ETA: I have just remembered he did do a comic way back when that took the piss out of Linux users, so perhaps I'm not giving him enough credit. It just feels like he's aiming unfair jibes at the segments of the population that aren't stereotypical xkcd readers, in order to create some feeling of superiority in those that are.
Edited Date: 2011-06-22 11:44 pm (UTC)

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