Interesting Links for 23-09-2024

[andrewducker]

1. Drones that deliver to parcel lockers seem like they could fill a gap. (Love to see how the economics of this work)

(tags:drone delivery video )

2. Left wing voters have gotten significantly more liberal over the last decade

(tags:polls politics UK )

3. Leading Edinburgh architect reveals plans for Summerhall venue including new hotel and student housing

(tags:Edinburgh architecture )

Comments

1

[danieldwilliam]

Gut feel on the economics of drone delivery by air to parcel lockers is that it is adversely affected when one companies drone using one operating system crashes in to another companies drone using a second operating system and then both drones crash through the windscreen of a school bus or petrol tanker and the state says to the delivery companies "Well, of course you're liable for that, who else did you think was going to go to prison? Oh, you thought we were just asking for your insurance details. Bless you, you sweet summer child."

Re: 1

[andrewducker]

I do think that there needs to be some serious thought around regulation in this area.

A brief search finds that "Drones weighing 250 grams or more must be operated at least 150 meters away from parks, industrial areas, residential zones, and other built-up locations" - which would rather preclude that kind of incident. And also delivering anything.

Re: 1

[danieldwilliam]

That's exactly the thing I'm thinking of. In order to prevent drones crashing in to people they are prohibited from being near people - which is going to knacker the economics.

Re: 1

[andrewducker]

Some kind of shared regulation on avoidance, and tracking, so that drones which are allowed in common airspace all have to obey a shared "highway code" may be in order.

(We probably aren't there yet for that. But if there was an economic incentive, I suspect we'd find that it wasn't that complex.)

Re: 1

[danieldwilliam]

Is there that much of an economic incentive?

There's some for sure.

But we're replacing cheap labour and well understood technology (man in a van with a sat nav and a barcode scanner) with a more complex solution.

That doesn't scream we can afford the overhead to create and enforce a set of common standards for drone communication and navigation.

Re: 1

[andrewducker]

Depends on how cheap we can make/fly drones. I suspect *not* for most situations. If there's more than a few parcels then a van is probably cheaper than sending ten drones out individually.

But I don't think that the economics of it are greatly affected by collision avoidance technology. If it was 1p cheaper per parcel worldwide to do it with drones then that would probably pay for the avoidance regulation/technology. And if it's not then it's not worth doing in the first place.

With the way that Waymo are expanding we'll see automated delivery vans first in any case.

Re: 1

[danieldwilliam]

The regulatory piece is a blocker to finding out if the economics work.

Any sensible country is not going to allow some techbro to fly drones over their city until they have proven that they can make them not crash and get insurance for any crashes that do happen and that they are signed up to a set of workable technical and regulatory standards. That's a costly burden on a start up or a potentially costly risk for a VC and also a delay to revenue streams.

I mean not insurmountable but a hassle for. Particularly when the solution on offer might be slightly worse than the current model. Current model, man rings my door when the thing I want has arrived and leaves it at my door or in my hand. New model, things maybe get to their destination faster but the destination is a walk away from me so I have to go to the locker and then carry the thing home. Is it at home much quicker?

5.4 billion parcels delivered in the UK in 2021. A penny cheaper each comes out to about £55m a year.

Re: 1

[jducoeur]

Any sensible country is not going to allow some techbro to fly drones over their city

So they're going to wind up testing this in Texas, is what I'm hearing you say here.

(Half in jest. But only half.)

Re: 1

[danieldwilliam]

I hear the drones in Texas are beautiful at this time of year.