Interesting Links for 27-06-2023

[andrewducker]

1. Wagner Group: New clues over why Prigozhin abandoned coup emerge, after reports of threats to his family

(tags:russia civilwar )

2. The Nimona trailer looks amazing. (Been looking forward to this since I read the comic a loooong time ago)

(tags:comics movies animation trailer video )

3. Starbucks workers at 150 stores plan strike over not being allowed Pride decor

(tags:LGBT USA coffee business )

4. Reminder that Google's automated systems will tell you any old nonsense

(tags:Google lies )

Comments

The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[agoodwinsmith]

Some are suggesting it was a staged event, to be used for home propaganda: see how strong is our Putin; all is well with our leaders and our special military operation, blah blah blah.

Considering that the group went up a well-known and highly visible highway with no opposition, it does raise questions. Sure, there might not have been foot troops close enough, but Moscow still has some jets and bombs and like that.

Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if Prigozhin thought that was what he was doing, and has now found out that there were plans within plans and plots within plots. I mean: Prigozhin is a seasoned and successful mercenary chieftain; if he wanted to cause serious inconvenience to Moscow, he wouldn't parade up a main highway to do it.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[andrewducker]

I've seen pictures of diggers tearing up the highway. And I definitely read about air attacks.

Everything I've read so far says that this has made Putin less secure.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[agoodwinsmith]

Ah. The talking head I watched said there had been no opposition all along the highway, which was why he was sneering at the idea that the coupe was real.

I read that it made Putin angry, which if a carefully plotted plot was done too soon, might be the case, which then would lead to all bets off threatening of families. Which, think about it, Prigozhin knows how Moscow works. He knows about windows and badly timed cups of tea. He knows about hidden agents. He must have expected to be immune

What most I have read have agreed on is that a new dictator doesn't actually improve things in the crazy thinking dept.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[agoodwinsmith]

Here is one of the people I follow about all things Russia/Ukraine:
https://medium.com/@nadinbrzezinski/wagner-developments-2f994647013c

I don't always follow everything because most of the Russian translations are done quickly, so metaphors and whatnot don't always make it over the fence. But it is always interesting, such as the picture of Prigozhin down the page.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[andrewducker]

That one pretty much tallies with my understanding. Putin rules while he keeps money and power flowing to Russian elites. Russia is basically lots of warlords and mafia types held together by wanting money. And it's starting to show.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[hairyears]

That tallies with my own understanding, too: but there's more to the flow of money, when Putin is Russia (and the wider World's) pre-eminent money launderer.

Dividing up the spoils in a contracting and restricted economy is a way of making his supporters even richer: but Putin's ability to close or blow open the secret accounts and property holdings is the threat that keeps oligarchs in line.

That, and the fact that he can and will arrest them if they show the slightest hint of opposition.

Re: The whole Wagner thing is so weird.

[andrewducker]

He can arrest a couple. If he loses the trust of a lot of them then he's in trouble.

Putin de bordel de merde.

[hairyears]

Some are suggesting it was a staged event

Unlikely, but everything about Russia's internal politics is unlikely.

I'd put that explanation on equal odds with the 'sensible' explanation, which is that Wagner's troops are taking serious losses and a general breakdown in discipline is turning into widespread mutiny.

...And, in all probability, the Russian Army has taken to 'encouraging' them to participate in attacks with artillery fire.

So what could Prigozhin do, caught between the consequences of failure and the harsh reality of bringing disposable and undertrained troops to war?


.........


The threat of a destabilising coup is a powerful bargaining chip, which can never actually be played.

Could Prigozhin have been pushed into trying a symbolic 'coup' without asking himself "What if Putin calls my bluff?"

Could he be in a desperate position where he had to try it anyway?

At least, this way, some of his troops will regard him as a heroic leader, instead of trying to kill him; and the rest will be sent to their deaths by regular Russian Army officers.

But it's all speculation and the best analysis is:

Whatever the real explanation is, it'll be far stranger and far more stupid than anyone sane or properly-medicated would ever have suggested.

... And we might never actually know the truth.

Re: Putin de bordel de merde.

[agoodwinsmith]

Whatever the real explanation is, it'll be far stranger and far more stupid than anyone sane or properly-medicated would ever have suggested.

Yes. This.

Re: Putin de bordel de merde.

[agoodwinsmith]

Also - I had to look it up, but that there is a fine pune.