Lost Beyond Brexit

[andrewducker]

As the Conservatives seem to be tying themselves in knots over Northern Ireland again, I thought I'd try and summarise where we're up to:

1) There is no agreement which both the EU and the DUP will agree to. The DUP will not accept the ECJ having a say, and the EU reasonably feel that rulings on EU law need to be subject to its highest court. Fundamentally the DUP won't accept Northern Ireland being inside the EU single market, and having it outside violates the Good Friday Agreement.
2) Many Conservatives will not agree to any deal that the DUP won't back.
3) Therefore the only way to pass a deal is with the support of non-Conservatives, which Starmer has said he'll help push, but doing that would turn the ongoing Conservative cold civil war into a very hot one.

Addendum: Johnson has clearly been jockeying for advantage on this front, and some of his more vocal supporters seem to have forgotten just how badly Partygate went down with the general public, and that he's about to be called to give evidence in an investigation that could trigger a by-election.

Frankly, I don't see how they the Conservatives get anything positive out of any of this, and the only positive aspect of it for the rest of us is that it makes their electoral prospects even worse.

Comments

[benicek]

Sounds like a win-win to me

[danieldwilliam]

Three people have agreed that one of them *must* be kicked really hard in the forks. They must agree by a two to one vote which person gets kicked but one of those votes in favour must be the person getting kicked. Deadlock ensues and continues to ensue indefinatly. But not hilarity.

[cmcmck]

And had you noticed? Nary a one of 'em (and the other lot don't get off lightly on this either) has uttered a word about the death of Brianna Ghey!

[calimac]

The DUP's refusal to support any solution to the problem because of fear of what their rabid supporters would do to them if they did - it reminds me of Republicans who are similarly in thrall to rapid Trumpists.

[andrewducker]

Oh yes - if the DUP were more reasonable then a lot of their supporters would move to a party who weren't.

[skington]

What I don't understand is why (not even in the pages of The Guardian), nobody ever calls the DUP on this. "You're asking for something that's impossible - Brexit but no border either between Ireland and Northern Ireland or in the Irish sea" seems like the sort of thing that could be put to them occasionally.

[andrewducker]

It would be nice if journalists occasionally did their job.

[bens_dad]

What would have happened if the Sinn Féin MPs had voted against Brexit ?

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Frankly, I don't see how they the Conservatives get anything positive out of any of this, and the only positive aspect of it for the rest of us is that it makes their electoral prospects even worse.

I'm nervous about making this public, but I have a theory:

The Conservatives *want* to lose the next election, to Labour *by a landslide*.

If Labour get in on a minority there is a real chance that first-past-the-post will go.
That will be bad for the Conservatives "permanently"*.

But if Labour have another landslide then there will be no significant interest (within the party) for PR and the Conservatives have a chance in 2029.

* as "permanently" as anything in politics.

[andrewducker]

I am still hoping for a hung parliament, and PR. Been hoping for a while now though!

[emperor]

Isn't the current deal at least partly the DUP's fault, since they supported Johnson in getting his deal through parliament?

[andrewducker]

Absolutely

[doccy]

Depressingly, all the Tories need to do is wait. The Great Gerrymandering was set in motion 2 years ago, and will bear fruit at the next GE, short of the party genuinely disbanding and/or them delivering letters to every household saying that they're going to double all taxes to fund a statue of Boris in every town.

[doubtingmichael]

I don't think it's an important distinction, but (1) isn't just about the DUP. There are plenty of Conservatives who won't accept the ECJ having authority either (including some who don't care about the DUP or anything happening on Ireland at all).