Scotland Pandemic Update

[andrewducker]

In the last month:

• Cases have trebled (1147 from 339)


• Test positivity has almost trebled (1.7% to 3.6%)


• People in hospital has doubled (81 to 156)


• Vaccinations have stalled for 40-49 year olds at 88%, which is lower than 50-54 year olds (94%) and significantly lower than all older groups (99-100%). This lower level worries me. If you know anyone who hasn't been vaccinated, and you think they might be persuadable then please give it a go.


• We've now vaccinated 75% of 30-40 year olds, and 40% of 18-29 year olds. And are still doing lots of those. Although overall vaccination speed has dropped (41k to 38k), but that might just be a blip.

Cases continue to be much much lower amongst vaccinated people, with the figures for the last 7 days only showing greater than 1>1000 odds if you're under the age of 25.

If doublings of hospital care continue to take a month then we have three and a half months until we're back at the January peak. That's actually enough time to finish vaccinating everyone, and we might avoid having to lockdown. If the supplies hold up. And we don't have another variant turn up. Fingers crossed!

Also, a reminder - the current UK strategy is *all* about not overwhelming the NHS. If the NHS capacity isn't going to be breached then they won't do anything to lock things down. Sadly, I can't find any figures on Scottish NHS capacity, particularly broken down by region. If anyone can point me at anything I'd be grateful!

All figures from here, where there are many pretty pictures.

Comments

[ggreig]

Sad lack of ambition - "if it's not bad enough to kill the NHS everything's fine". That was kind of OK for the first wave (only kind of) and it shouldn't be where we are now.

[agoodwinsmith]

The Delta variant is a problem. In Ontario, a woman who was fully vaccinated (2 shots + time) died from COVID 19.

She was in a long-term care home, so there were several strikes against her before infection, but it means we still have to be careful around vulnerable people, even if they are vaccinated.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/fully-vaccinated-woman-died-covid-19-waterloo-region-1.6072972

[andrewducker]

Oh yes. The vaccine isn't 100% effective, just 90-99% (depending on a variety of things). So we really need to vaccinate everyone to make the vulnerable safe.

[agoodwinsmith]

I think this is something a little more than that. Here's in Alberta:
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/10-delta-variant-cases-connected-to-outbreak-at-calgary-hospital-were-fully-immunized-1.5466403

[andrewducker]

"second dose 88 per cent" says that article. So a little lower than I thought, but still pretty high.