Brexit: Where are we now?
Sep. 8th, 2019 03:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
andrewduckerThere is no majority for any deal. There is also no majority for no deal. And there is no majority for revoking Article 50. There is therefore, no majority for anything.
By default, without a majority for anything, we leave the EU without a deal. This is a Bad Thing.
(None of this is new, it's been the state since since May invoked Article 50.)
Boris Johnson knows that there is a majority in parliament against No Deal, so he tried to lock the doors and prevent parliament from stopping him getting No Deal. Instead, he pushed people opposed far enough that they passed a bill saying "If you can't get a deal by the 19th of October you have to ask for an extension".
The intention is then to have a general election. Or, at least, the Conservatives want one now, to the point of calling Corbyn a chicken for not giving in to a painfully transparent ploy. The reason for this is that if there is a general election then (a) parliament shuts and (b) Johnson hopes to be returned with a greater majority. (b) is up for grabs. The polls show the Conservatives doing well right now (or, at least, Labour doing very badly), but they looked much the same before the last general election too, and that didn't end up well for May. (a) is what desperately needs to be avoided - because if parliament is shut then MPs can't respond to whatever shit Johnson pulls next.
For some reason, this law doesn't say we want an extension "To have an election", despite this being what is clearly going to happen. With the result the French are saying "We won't give you an extension for no reason.".
Which seems to include refusing to follow the law, and possibly going to prison for doing so. They've also said they would obey the law, while not asking for an extension, and fuck knows what _that_ means.
The question, at which point, is whether there can be a Vote of No Confidence, followed by a Vote of Confidence (which is the process for switching governments without an election) in a Government of National Unity can happen before we run out of time to get an extension.
To sum up:
1) Parliament has passed a law making it clear that No Deal is out of the question.
2) The government has threatened to ignore this law.
3) At which point avoiding disaster depends on whether a Government of National Unity can be formed fast enough to prevent No Deal.
Some thoughts:
1) The Conservative Party leadership are mostly terrified of their voters going to the Brexit Party. Under a better voting system this would merely be "bad news" rather than "completely apocalyptic". Under First Past The Post a 10% swing can lose you a nearly all of your seats, rather than reducing your percentage of all the seats by 10%. If we had AV (or, even better, AMS or STV) this would be much less bad. Heck, David Cameron probably wouldn't have promised a referendum at all if he hadn't been so scared of a chunk of Conservatives voters going to UKIP back in 2015.
2) The government threatening to break the law is one of those things that is a sign that Everything Is Broken. Frankly, it has been clearer and clearer as we've gone through this process that our lack of a well thought-through constitution is causing a lot of problems. In a sensible country the government wouldn't just be able to shut parliament for five weeks! So much has fallen on to "Here's the convention, and no decent person would break convention", and doesn't cope at all well with people who are willing to burn down everything to get what they want.
3) There still seem to be politicians out there who think that there's a deal with the EU that can get a majority through parliament. And at this point that's so clearly nonsense that I wonder what's going on with them. There's either going to be No Deal or Revocation, as far as I can see. And the only way out of _that_ is either for the Conservatives to get a majority that will push through No Deal, or for there to be a referendum. Which it looks like Revoke would win (according to all of the data I'm seeing, by about 5%) but obviously you can't rely on that.
4) Farage is offering Johnson a deal, if Johnson puts No Deal in the Conservative Manifesto. But that would undoubtedly push some Conservative voters away, while getting some back from the Brexit Party. I'm not sure if that would actually be helpful to Johnson or not!
5) As usual let me know if I've missed anything, or gotten anything wrong.
By default, without a majority for anything, we leave the EU without a deal. This is a Bad Thing.
(None of this is new, it's been the state since since May invoked Article 50.)
Boris Johnson knows that there is a majority in parliament against No Deal, so he tried to lock the doors and prevent parliament from stopping him getting No Deal. Instead, he pushed people opposed far enough that they passed a bill saying "If you can't get a deal by the 19th of October you have to ask for an extension".
The intention is then to have a general election. Or, at least, the Conservatives want one now, to the point of calling Corbyn a chicken for not giving in to a painfully transparent ploy. The reason for this is that if there is a general election then (a) parliament shuts and (b) Johnson hopes to be returned with a greater majority. (b) is up for grabs. The polls show the Conservatives doing well right now (or, at least, Labour doing very badly), but they looked much the same before the last general election too, and that didn't end up well for May. (a) is what desperately needs to be avoided - because if parliament is shut then MPs can't respond to whatever shit Johnson pulls next.
For some reason, this law doesn't say we want an extension "To have an election", despite this being what is clearly going to happen. With the result the French are saying "We won't give you an extension for no reason.".
Which seems to include refusing to follow the law, and possibly going to prison for doing so. They've also said they would obey the law, while not asking for an extension, and fuck knows what _that_ means.
The question, at which point, is whether there can be a Vote of No Confidence, followed by a Vote of Confidence (which is the process for switching governments without an election) in a Government of National Unity can happen before we run out of time to get an extension.
To sum up:
1) Parliament has passed a law making it clear that No Deal is out of the question.
2) The government has threatened to ignore this law.
3) At which point avoiding disaster depends on whether a Government of National Unity can be formed fast enough to prevent No Deal.
Some thoughts:
1) The Conservative Party leadership are mostly terrified of their voters going to the Brexit Party. Under a better voting system this would merely be "bad news" rather than "completely apocalyptic". Under First Past The Post a 10% swing can lose you a nearly all of your seats, rather than reducing your percentage of all the seats by 10%. If we had AV (or, even better, AMS or STV) this would be much less bad. Heck, David Cameron probably wouldn't have promised a referendum at all if he hadn't been so scared of a chunk of Conservatives voters going to UKIP back in 2015.
2) The government threatening to break the law is one of those things that is a sign that Everything Is Broken. Frankly, it has been clearer and clearer as we've gone through this process that our lack of a well thought-through constitution is causing a lot of problems. In a sensible country the government wouldn't just be able to shut parliament for five weeks! So much has fallen on to "Here's the convention, and no decent person would break convention", and doesn't cope at all well with people who are willing to burn down everything to get what they want.
3) There still seem to be politicians out there who think that there's a deal with the EU that can get a majority through parliament. And at this point that's so clearly nonsense that I wonder what's going on with them. There's either going to be No Deal or Revocation, as far as I can see. And the only way out of _that_ is either for the Conservatives to get a majority that will push through No Deal, or for there to be a referendum. Which it looks like Revoke would win (according to all of the data I'm seeing, by about 5%) but obviously you can't rely on that.
4) Farage is offering Johnson a deal, if Johnson puts No Deal in the Conservative Manifesto. But that would undoubtedly push some Conservative voters away, while getting some back from the Brexit Party. I'm not sure if that would actually be helpful to Johnson or not!
5) As usual let me know if I've missed anything, or gotten anything wrong.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 03:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 03:05 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 03:29 pm (UTC)I've seen a scenario that BJ waits until the last possible moment and then shafts the DUP by sticking a hard border in the Irish Sea, thereby squaring the Good Friday/Backstop circle, and everyone is so relieved that this is A Thing that they vote for "May's deal with the backstop removed". It's not as if conserving his majority is a consideration any more.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 04:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 04:20 pm (UTC)One possibility you ignore is that Boris comes back from Brussels with Something. I presume you ignore this because 1) his "chicken" strategy ("Give me a better deal or I'll drive my country over the cliff") isn't going to work; 2) even if it did, the result still wouldn't get through Parliament (see "There is also no majority for a deal" above).
I would make just two modifications, both small. 1) To add "There is also no majority for no deal," which is kind of obvious. 2) To change "since the referendum" in para 3 to "since May invoked Article 50," since that's what made No Deal the default.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 04:45 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 06:11 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 08:22 pm (UTC)It seems like the plan is to call for an election later, and hope that is in fact accepted by europe.
Parliament is ridiculously deadlocked because it seems like Remain, Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, and No Deal all have 1/4 of parliament, and who would win a vote depends on what sort of vote. So there's a lot of brinkmanship, and it's the rare situation where a STV vote wouldn't sort everything out.
I think if we didn't have a specific deadline, the plan would be an election, and if that didn't work, another election, etc.
I've no idea which parties are most scared of an election. Maybe they're all so scared parliament will actually agree to an alternative vote system rather than run an election FPTP??
It feels like Johnson may be playing a different game: ignoring the result of brexit, but playing to hive off the remain wing of the party, lose the brexit wing of the party to a brexit party, but end up king of a smaller hill in partnership with brexit party. That's bad for just about EVERYONE, leave or remain, but might be good for him.
I don't know what's up with the "break the law/not break the law" thing. I guess, he's playing a standard "deny everything and see how much he can get away with" game. It's good for his image to play the maverick, however much it outrages people with any idea what's going on. And good to deny there's a problem with that, however much it's a blatant contradiction. My best guess is that he'll refuse to do any such thing as long as possible, but if it looks like he'd face actual consequences he'd make a big show of resigning or otherwise dodging the issue (or conceding and blaming parliament for being unreasonable)
Repeated "probably not, well maybe" extensions are one of the things I'm most scared of, because of the chance of playing chicken and losing.
But OTOH, if parliament establishes it DOESN'T want no deal, it does push it into deciding between the other three options. The risk of accidental no-deal pushed the MPs most scared of that into voting for SOME deal. If that's receded a bit, but there's still a deadline looming, other MPs may start to blink and accept one of the other slightly more reasonable options, until there's something like a majority for remain, soft, or deal.
There's been surprisingly little talk about the possibility of throwing away the stupid red lines. I know no-one really wants a pointless soft brexit (or maybe David Allen Green does?) but it might be the most palatable option to a lot of people. I know Europe have said a lot about not renegotiating. But if there's an actual majority in parliament for a deal that agrees with the headline issues (GB in/out of single market, NI in single market/unicorns, splitting the four freedoms no/unicorns), it feels like the negotiations might happen quite fast.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-08 10:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-09 01:24 am (UTC)Off the Top of My Head - More to Follow After Coffee
Date: 2019-09-09 08:33 am (UTC)Probably as part of a Revoke and Re-Referendum Re-Group exercise.
I think the Jeremy Frighted Chicken attack is going to work much, much, much less than the "Even Boris Johnson's own brother doesn't trust him." link will work.
What is unclear I think from the FTPA is what the actual process during the two week VONC-On - VONC-off period, how that interacts with the Queen's perogative power (duty?) to select the Prime Minister. Basically, can Johnson sit out the two week period or can / will / must the Queen attempt to replace him?
(No I don't know either.)
Some thoughts
1) Agree. The Brexit Party vote is one of the really interesting or "interesting" variable in a General Election. At 5%, perhaps no effect at all. At 10% they start costing the Tories marginal seats, mostly Con-Lab seats in leave area. At 15% I think they cost the Tories lots of seats and the Labour Party a few Lab-Lib seats in Remain area. At 20% they start winning seats. This may not be a catastrophe.
NB the Brexit Party has not much organisation and not much data - their ground game will be poor.
2) Agreed on the Constitution. It's why I put my political energy mostly in Unlock Democracy.
3) There might actually be a deal that could be gotten through Parliament but it requires going back to the start of a two year process and agreeing to stay in the Single Market with *eveything* that that entails. The Tories can't do it from here.
4) Farage's deal is probably a net wash for the Tories in terms of vote share. Not sure how it impacts on geographical vote location which is just as important.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-10 02:01 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-09-10 02:44 pm (UTC)1) Johnson does something that clearly outrages democracy and has to go immediately.
2) The opposition to Johnson agree on an alternative Prime Minister
3) The leave date is fast approaching, Johnson seems intent on No Deal and the EU has refused to extend the deadline again so a new Prime Minister must be elected to deliver the Revocation Notice to the EU
4) the situation has become utterly unmanagable by anyone and collectively Parliament decides to have an election.
no subject
Date: 2019-09-11 02:38 pm (UTC)