We are sliding towards No Deal.

[andrewducker]

I can't tell if Theresa May is engaging in bravado to try and hold on to her job, if she's actually lost the plot, or if this is a cunning plan to make it clear how incredibly stupid Brexit is.

She's made it clear that the Backstop the EU has proposed isn't acceptable the Britain, and put forward...well, nothing*. And without a backstop which upholds the Good Friday agreement the EU won't give us any deal at all.

And she's now saying that the white paper agreed at Chequers isn't an opening negotiation, it's the only thing that the UK will agree to. Totally ruling out further compromise.

Which, as it completely violates the four freedoms, the EU absolutely will not agree to. Barnier just tore it apart, while pointing out that the EU27 is united on this.

So, No Deal for all!

The government has announced that it is preparing dozens of notifications to let people know how to deal with the awfulness to come. Which will include dairy shortages, along with lots of large companies leaving the UK because their supply lines require friction-free trade**.

The question is, will the warnings be enough for The People to demand that our course changes? Or will it take us actually dropping out and the lorries grinding to a halt at Dover before we decide that maybe the EEA isn't so bad?



*There's some very handwavey stuff in the White Paper which basically boils down to "Blockchain will do it!". But certainly nothing which can actually be done in real life in the next few years.
**Honda at Swindon receives 2m components per day thanks to free movement of goods. After a no deal Brexit, to store the minimum 9 days' worth of components on site, they would need to erect the 3rd-largest building on Earth: 300,000 sq m = 42 football pitches. From

Comments

[cmcmck]

Insanity doesn't even begin to describe what these idiots are getting us into!

[momentsmusicaux]

Oh wow, I was wondering if there was nothing blockchain couldn't do!

> a cunning plan to make it clear how incredibly stupid Brexit is.

Oh god please let it be this.

[danieldwilliam]

Is the current proposal really to send out notices to a wide variety of interest groups warning them about the negative impact that Brexit will have on them? Including food shortages and fuel shortages?

How the hell is that going to land?

More excitingly, what impact will the warnings themselves have on the country?

[andrewducker]

Apparently.

And ones which would be fascinating to watch from a different country inhabited by sensible people.

[danieldwilliam]

The Netherlands is lovely this time of year.

[rmc28]

While not in an extended heatwave / drought ...

[danieldwilliam]

If we're lucky this is a prelude to being liberated by the Republic of Ireland. I for one will be happy to collaborate closely with any flame-haired Daughter of Erin who finds herself on a police action in New Hibernia's south east city of Erinburgh.

[mountainkiss]

It's not a cunning plan.

[autopope]

It's a cunning plan to prepare the field for the next Minister for Departing the EU, Baldrick.

[andrewducker]

It's certainly not feeling that way!

[jack]

Oh god :(

I think May is playing to maintain her own position, which means, staving off any conclusive vote she could lose as long as possible, while making the preparations for the most likely alternatives.

I was really hopeful that when this came down to "BINO or Hard Brexit" hard brexit would threaten to ruin her and she'd need to come down on the remain side after all.

But now it sounds like she's preparing for no deal at least as much. I think she may share my hope that people revolt against it sufficiently that she could avoid it, but she won't actually do that unless she can defeat the brexiters and stay PM, and I've no idea if that's likely :(

[emceeaich]

Don't dismiss the possibility that like the American White Supremacists, they don't care if their economy is only large enough to support a minority of white men and everyone else is chattel.

[heron61]

or if this is a cunning plan to make it clear how incredibly stupid Brexit is.

Between ongoing reports of how bad a no deal Brexit would be and further investigation into how big a role Russia played in backing the Leave campaign, if she's clever, this could be an excellent way to end Brexit and remain in the EU, or at worst, end it, stay in the EU, and make some vague mumblings about another Brexit referendum sometime in the future.

Or, it might just be a total doomed mess and May is just flailing and hoping for a better deal if she backs everyone in a corner (which almost certainly won't work).

From an entirely outside perspective, I'd give this a 50% chance of either.

[andrewducker]

It's certainly not feeling like there's anyone actually in control of this.

[soon_lee]

Can't they just call the whole thing off?

[andrewducker]

They could.

But they are terrified of UKIP stealing half of the Conservative vote and making them unelectable for decades.

[soon_lee]

That is so frustrating. Especially when all the analysis shows how costly any form of Brexit will be. And these are not one-off costs either but longer term ones.

I don't remember it on account of being too young, but there was still bitterness in the older generation from when the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and New Zealand lost a big chunk of its dairy export market (the UK bought 90% of New Zealand butter production in 1970). It took many years to recover & find alternative markets.

And now the UK is wanting free trade deal with New Zealand (but the EU has jumped the queue, and let's not forget that the UK doesn't have enough trade negotiators; one advantage of being in the EU being that it didn't need trade negotiators if the EU was supplying that expertise.)

(If I were a friend of the UK, I would take it aside and tell it to cancel Article 50.)

[andrewducker]

The problem (one, amongst many) is that the Conservatives have just enough millionaire MPs who want out from the regulation of the EU, which is about to make hiding from the taxman harder, to stop them cancelling Brexit by themselves.

They also have enough MPs who see No Deal as appalling to mean that at some point there will be a reckoning, but they're all putting it off at the moment.