Looking at voting intentions in Scotland

[andrewducker]

I was looking at this poll for voting in Scotland, and specifically at the differences between Constituency and List votes, and two pairings leaped out at me:

The first number here is the Constituency vote (who you vote to be your local MSP) and the second is your List vote (basically which party you want to represent you in parliament - this is then used to make the results more proportional).

SNP 43% -> 33%
Green 0% -> 11%

Conservatives 24% -> 19%
UKIP 0% -> 5%

Labour 21% -> 21%

LibDem 9% -> 10%

So, basically, Greens are supporting the SNP in the constituency vote, UKIP are supporting the Conservatives, and Labour and Lib Dem are sticking with what they've got.

Which makes sense. Your SNP/Greens are the Independence vote, so of course they stick together. And UKIP are basically the deeply unpleasant wing of the Conservatives.

Still, nice to see it laid out like that.

(I do wonder how the votes would change in an independent Scotland, where people weren't basically responding to the behaviour of the Westminster parties. And there wouldn't be a need for an SNP any more.)

Comments

[cmcmck]

I guess that's the problem with a nationalist party- once you've won, then what?

UKIP got Brexit and then imploded (not that we're sorry about that).

It's why 'one issue' politics rarely lasts.

[andrewducker]

I'm not sure it's actually a problem for them. They'd be happy to cease to exist after independence.

(Or split into new parties)

[skington]

The Tories stole UKIP's clothes rather than UKIP winning, though. Parties that win independence, like Ireland's Fianna Fáil, South Africa's ANC or Mexico's PRI, tend to be pretty successful.

[danieldwilliam]

Post-Independence there won't be a need for the Scottish Labour Party any more.

[andrewducker]

Because the left wing of the SNP will replace it?

[danieldwilliam]

Pretty much.

My thinking is this.

About 5-10% of the SNP support are centre-right voters who either really like the idea of an independent Scotland or think they will get more laissez-faire policy in an independent Scotland (these lot are akin to the German party the FDP).

So post independence those people start voting for either the Conservative Party or the Liberal Democrats. (Or between the classical liberals in the Conservative Party and in the SNP there is enough to sustain a classical liberal party in Scotland. I suspect not.)

Most of the rest of the SNP are currently occupying a pretty orthodox centre-left social democrat position. There are a few more radical left-wingers.

The SNP then picks up votes and activists from the Labour Party - those in the Labour Party who either didn't much mind about independence or think that the Union is a lost cause. Why do I think these people go to the SNP rather than the other way round - because the SNP will have just won, both independence and at least one general election ahead of that, and will probably win the general election after independence.

The more radical left elements of both the SNP and the Labour Party can probably group together along with the SSP, TUSC and so on to make a viable radical-left party with a few seats.

Tribalism and the links to the unions might keep the Labour Party going for a while. They might even replace the SNP (I could be wrong) but my best guess is that post-independence the SNP survive as a party and the Labour Party dwindle. At some point I think the Labour Party becomes unsustainable.

[andrewducker]

I think that the SNP mid left forming a new party with the non corrupt Labour remnants is entirely possible.

Further left SNP probably go Green.

[danieldwilliam]

Entirely possible that the two groups form a new party. The Scottish National Scocial Democratic Party or similar.

I think a lot will depend on the people involved. If a particularly well-respected Labour senior figure got together with a similar SNP person and they both defected to their own new party "to put the divisions of the past behind us" then a new centre-left party could get off the ground.

Or if the senior Labour figures at the time of independence all retire in despair then the Labour Party struggles.

If I were betting on this I'd bet on the Labour Party not surviving independence but I certainly wouldn't be shocked at the SNP dwindling or a new party forming.

On the radical left - there is a class thing going on I think. The Greens are quite a middle class party and RISE, TUSC, the SSP have a more working class and industrial base. I think their base overlaps more with the radical left in the Labour Party than it does with the Greens.

How the party structures sort out also depends on the size of the Scottish Parliament and the voting system. A Parliament with, say, 250 Members, probably has room in it for a group of 10 MSP's from the New Scottish Industrial Left Party and 10 from the Greens and 10 from the Smithian Liberal Party of Scotland. (10 being a workable size for a political party. The cut off to be a group in Holyrood is either 5 or 6). A Parliament with 129 members probably doesn't have room for 5 of each. The current voting system with a Parliament of 129 probably wouldn't return clusters of 5 MSP's from smaller parties.