What on Earth is Theresa May up to?

[andrewducker]

So, the government just passed (by three votes*) the Customs Bill with amendments from the ultra-Brexiters which make the Irish Border backstop impossible.

And then she's sending all the MPs home for the summer early - on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the EU's next meeting with the new Brexit Minister will be happening on...Thursday! At which point they will undoubtedly tell them that the Chequers proposal is rampant cakeism, and completely unacceptable.

Which would be entirely obvious to anyone who saw this image back in December**:


So, does she plan to send everyone home and then say "Surprise! Brexit is off!" or to say "Surprise! It's No Deal!" Because I can't see much in-between those things at the moment***. Whichever one it is, there won't be any MPs to hold her to account over it, because they'll all have been packed off on their summer holidays.

Anyone got any predictions for what's next****?

*Made possible by three Labour MPs voting in favour.
**such as the heads of the other EU countries, who entirely approve of it. I recently read something somewhere saying that the worst case for Britain was No Deal, but the worst case for Europe was the Four Freedoms being divided, which tears the EU apart.
***Possibly "Surprise, it's a Canada-style FTA!" - which will still destroy the economy. But with the EU saying that there's no deal without an Irish backstop, and Ireland having a veto there, I can't see how they get to that either.
****Other than "No Deal, followed by mass panic, food shortages, and cannibalism"...

Comments

[nojay]

Parliament is not the government. If the PM thinks the legislative calendar is clear then getting MPs out of the House isn't a problem for Brexit negotiations which are led by the Cabinet Minister of the week in charge of Brexit. It also frees the MPs up to do a bit of local politicking in case, say, she has to call another snap General Election after the EU says "put down the cake slice and back away from the table".

Having the members of the 1922 Committee spread out across the country is another benefit for PM May rather than them passing the knife-sharpeners around the table in the Westminster coffee shop.

[rangifer]

This entire process is a little bit heart-breaking to me. And I just know that the inevitable blame game in the press on both sides of the channel is going to be a depressing read.

[xenophanean]

The game at the moment is to get them out of parliament before they kick her out of power. If she can get to the recess, she can be in a position whereby they can't reasonably depose her without not having anyone in place in time to negotiate Brexit itself.

What exactly she's planning then is a big question. She's playing against the Hard Brexiters, but with what is now an entirely non-viable Brexit policy. The fact that she caved begs the question whether she knew that already. I think it unlikely that she's playing for No Deal Brexit, so perhaps she's going for stalemate on deal, something else (2nd Referendum? Extended time from the EU?), or perhaps she's just clinging on by her fingernails and doesn't actually have a plan now if she survives.

[danieldwilliam]

I think it's either one of two things.

Either she's (A) been carefully following of a poliy of delay and obfuscation so that she can arrive at the point where it is Already Too Late and shepherd the UK in to either staying in the EU or joining the EEA by making it a forced choice between that and an unplanned for hard Brexit or (B) she has been mostly focused on her own internal position and the sanctity and unity of the Conservative Party and has just been fudging through.

I think the publically available data supports both views. A successful attempt at (B) will look a lot like a failed attempt at (A). We may never know the truth.

[jack]

I'm sort of hoping that a failed attempt at (B) looks like a successful attempt at (A) :(

[danieldwilliam]

Yeah me too. I think that it is entirely possible that Plan B fails and whilst trying to keep the Tory Party together and avoid a general election she slips up and lands in a position where she has to opt for moving from EU membership to EEA membership.

[mountainkiss]

Not if this remains true. It could change when Dacre goes but that doesn't leave a lot of time.

[danieldwilliam]

That's an opinion poll of the general electorate. May needs to win votes in Parliament where the situation is very different.

[mountainkiss]

I take your point in principle but this is not notably true based on voting patterns at the moment.

[danieldwilliam]

Assuming that May is mostly focused on party unity and avoiding a general election she'll keep putting forward compromise offerings that she hopes can attract enough support from Tory backbenchers to keep them all hanging together. Assuming that the Tory backbenchers are likewise mostly motivated by maintaining party unity they will mostly go along with those compromises. They will hope to teach the horse to talk.

If party unity breaks down then there is no incentive for strongly Remain leaning Tory MP's to go along with compromise that looks like a hard Brexit. Soft or No Brexit has a majority in the House but it requires Tory MP's to vote against their own government and with notionally rebel Labour MP's. Which they probably won't do if it looks like the Tory Party is broken anyway. There doesn't necessarily need to be a general election until 2023 and, if you are going to lose your seat then anyway, you might as well vote in line with your beliefs. If we assume that most Tory MP's would prefer both Tory hegemony and the softest possible Brexit then if they can't have Tory hegemony and unity they may as well have a soft Brexit.

So a failed attempt by May to preserve Tory party unity could lead to a situation where it is possible for Remain inclined Tory MP's to vote in favour of the EEA or a second referendum.

Or it might not.

Anything could happen, up to and including Prince Charles pulling Excaliber from the Stone of Scone and the Duchesses of Cambridge and Sussex riding a naked unicorn around Wembly stadium.

[mountainkiss]

I understand the reasoning.

I don't know that she has any better game in creating unity than she is playing at the moment, and it's manifestly not working.

[danieldwilliam]

I think you are right. I don't think she has anything extra or different she can do to pull the party together. She doesn't have a long and illustrious record, a strong and popular ideology, a track record of victory, great charisma or great intellectual powers or a deep well of good will.

I'm less certain that her efforts to hold the party together are failing or have failed. She's not in a great position but she might just make it through. Attempts to nudge her slightly one way or another will include much public noise and alarums - difficult to tell if the current noise is posturing or a real fight about to break out.

[cmcmck]

I'm appalled that the lazy buggers think early hols is just the thing.

So what is this, Greyfriars School end of term?

Oh Lor! Oh Crikey!

[hano]

****Other than "No Deal, followed by mass panic, food shortages, and cannibalism
Cats living with dogs? Dread Cthulhu rising from His slumbers? England winning the cricket world cup?

More seriously, I'm really not sure. I thought after Chequers that May had the strength to face down the hard liners but given how she capitulated last night she doesn't believe she has let alone anyone else. Increasingly I think it boils down to three possibilities:
i) we crash out with no deal, cue chaos and food shortages. If that happens, especially the food shortages bit, there'll be mass rioting within days, the government will collapse and most importantly from May's point of view, the subsequent election will see the end of the Conservative Party as a serious electoral force for at least a generation.
ii) no Brexit. Quite how I'm not sure. But, given the noises a number of soft Brexiters are making about some kind of second referendum this is a growing possibility.
iii) Government collapses and there's an election. Like it or not, May still commands enough seats in the Commons to survive a confidence vote and I doubt any but the most ardent Tory remainer would defy the whip and vote against their own party. It's possible Arlene Foster will pull the DUP plug but grifters like her will milk this particular golden cow for as long as possible. That said, the border issue may force their hand so who knows.
iv) something much weirder that we cannot foresee which in the light of the past two years could certainly happen.

[channelpenguin]

By this point, I am definitely expecting iv)!!!