andrewducker: (Default)
[personal profile] andrewducker
I get a regular weekly email from Facebook telling me how Andy Ducker's Links is doing. And apart from a couple of blips* I get about 1% growth every week.

I'm on 462 followers right now, and unlike on Twitter**, I'm fairly sure that all of those are real people.

So I did a bit of maths. And for a growth rate of 1%, it will take me 760 weeks to reach a million followers. Which is only 14 years.

I mean, I bet there's an S-curve in there, with there being only so many people who find my kind of links interesting. But I wonder how high it goes.***


*I hit 250 followers, and two days later one of my images went viral and gave me about 200 extra followers. This was surprising.
**My Twitter followers used to turn up in regular drips of a few per week as well. And then that just stopped. I still get retweeted a fair bit, but Twitter is definitely less busy for me than it used to be.
***And also what effect Facebook algorithms have there. I can tell when their algorithms change, because I'll spend a few weeks with numerous links going wide, and then a few weeks with hardly any traction, and without any serious change in content. And presumably they treat the bigger pages differently from the smaller ones.

Date: 2017-06-11 04:07 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
Time for a (re-)read of Katherine Maclean's "The Snowball Effect", perhaps.

Date: 2017-06-11 07:37 pm (UTC)
srukle: (Default)
From: [personal profile] srukle
I wish you luck on ever-lasting growth. :)

Date: 2017-06-11 08:40 pm (UTC)
bohemiancoast: (Default)
From: [personal profile] bohemiancoast
If it's a Facebook page, then FB starts properly penalising you for being big once you hit (I think) 100k. New Pages get a bonus for being new, and then a penalty for being small if they don't hit a certain size (maybe about 50?) quite quickly. And then they sort of level out and scale linearly for a good long time. But posts with external links get less reach than posts with only internal FB links *except* where lots of people share them, in which case they bounce back. My biggest page is about 10200 now, and typical posts get organic reach of about 2k unless they're a shirt post when it's about half that. Every so often I get a post that spreads much more; one had 25k reach the other week. It looks exactly like all the others to me.

Almost none of the page followers are bots, unlike Twitter where I think I get 1/3 bots, 1/3 people trying to sell stuff or follow shirt designers, 1/3 fans.

If you want to build the page (you might not), invite people who like posts to like the page.

Date: 2017-06-19 12:36 am (UTC)
melchar: medieval raccoon girl (Default)
From: [personal profile] melchar
Slow and steady growth is a good thing. As long as one grows, one is not dying. ^_^

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