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[personal profile] andrewducker
The reason I didn't post a poll about Scottisn Independence last week is
that I couldn't face the ensuing debate. The referendum almost certainly
isn't going to be for another three and a half years and any discussion now
will be reconsidered, reversed, reiterated, and generally be out of date
come that point. I actually hope that setting a date means that we can
stop thinking about it for at least two of those years and move on to
talking about other things.

What _does_ fascinate me is the politics around it, the manouvering, the
reactions to it, etc. The people-watching parts are currently far more
interesting to me than the thing itself. Once it's less than a year away
it will feel worthwhile having an opinion that goes further than "There
should be a referendum so that a decision can be made." For now, I'll
stick to being amused at the press tying itself in knots trying to work out
what it thinks.

Date: 2012-01-16 12:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pisica.livejournal.com
...of course, you do realise that not posting a poll about Scottish Independence doesn't save you from debate in the comments, given that you're posting about why you're not posting a poll....

:D

Also watching the media. Seeing the same bit of news spun from multiple angles is fascinating.

And of course there are already 'what would independence mean for Scotland?' from a variety of angles. Read one on the BBC website from the economics perspective and the main response seems to be, 'dunno yet.'

98% of this is spin.

Date: 2012-01-16 07:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] octopoid-horror.livejournal.com
I'm sure after learning from Olympics, the Commonwealth games will go absolutely smoothly. After all, they're in Glasgow, a city that did not take a surprisingly lengthy time to build a parliament or tram line.

At least the Commonwealth games up here might not fail the pollution standards that I'm sure I saw something suggesting the Olympics would.

Date: 2012-01-16 01:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
I pretty much feel the same at the moment. I'm finding the arguments fascinating but I'm content to be in the middle opinion-wise at this stage - I'm open to being convinced.

Date: 2012-01-17 11:57 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I found the series of television journalist interviewing print journalists over the last week surreal verging on pointless.

Date: 2012-01-17 11:58 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I suspect I’ll take an interest a little sooner as I suspect I’ll end up campaigning and I’d like to do that with more than six months notice this time round.

Date: 2012-01-17 12:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Could I? Could I really? Gosh. You're not just teasing me are you now?

Seriously, that's part of my inclination to vote for Independence. It an opportunity to live in a more democratic polity sooner. I think independence for Scotland might be easier to achieve than electoral reform for the UK.

But that’s not the only reason I’m broadly in favour. I think it would take some decent evidence that independence would be economically pretty bad for Scotland before I changed my mind but I’m open to the debate and looking forward to it. I may even try and contribute something to it – once I’m a bit better.

Date: 2012-01-17 01:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Aye - I'm thinking things will be pretty much the same but with perhaps a little more local focus and access. Perhaps.

We're not going to turn into an oil sheikdom or a renewable energy sheikdom (and if we do things elsewhere are not so good).

So it's a marginal decision in my view. Which is why I think my dad is much less excited about the whole thing than I am - he sees it as a distraction from the real issues.

Date: 2012-01-18 12:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
We could be a renewable energy haven if we put our minds to it - that's one of the things that could tempt me into voting for independence.

Date: 2012-01-18 12:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
We could be a renewable energy haven and that would be a good thing for Scotland, Scottish workers and the world generally but I think it will work out differently from the experience places like Saudi Arabia, Qatar or even Norway have had with oil.

I think the costs of renewable energy, relative to the price of energy, are pretty close. Energy prices are mainly determined by the price of gas at the moment and renewable energy costs are pretty close to the wholesale energy price. So there isn’t a whacking great superprofit from renewable energy for a putative Scottish government to take a share of and use to pay for public services, physical captial or invest in a sovereign wealth fund. What they will get is increased taxation from locally based renewables service enterprises and from employees and, I hope, a fall in the welfare bill as employment goes up.

As renewables become cheaper, as the price of gas and carbon goes up and the price of wholesale energy rises and the renewables industry in Scotland takes off it will be very valuable to us providing well paid jobs and a secure source of energy that will encourage industry to locate in Scotland. All good. Not all of the jobs will be in Scotland. Not all of the profits will stay in Scotland. Not all of the value created by the renewables sector will be available for the Scottish Government to tax.

I think it will be a different experience to Norway’s or the Saudis’. I might argue better for us morally to work hard and earn a good living than stumble over a windfall and not have to earn it.

Date: 2012-01-18 01:42 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Yes - nice to see some money coming in.

Mazdar is a strange place I think. I'd like to go and see if it really is a giant white elephant, the future of the future or just some place that sort of works like most of the rest of the world.

Date: 2012-01-18 04:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
Windfalls do not seem to encourage ethical practices, I'm with you on the moral argument.

Date: 2012-01-18 04:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
Yeah, I spotted this link on your twitter feed after I posted the comment. Hopefully it bodes well, there seem to be lots of things in development, particularly on the tidal/wave power side, that have potential and just need the right investment to carry them forward.

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