Couple of quick hits.

[andrewducker]

The post I linked to yesterday on how A-Level choices strongly affect your later education has some fascinating discussion on it. You could also do worse than adding philmophlegm.

Nokia and Microsoft have announced a tie-up on smartphones. Which baffles me completely. So far as I can see, MS totally control the interface for their phones. Which means that Nokia can't differentiate itself except on the hardware (i.e. a nicer camera). Much though I went off the interface for Symbian later on, it did seem to be the thing that Nokia smartphone fans kept harking back to. I just can't see what Nokia gain from turning themselves from providers of the complete smartphone into hardware manufacturers - all the reviews of MS smartphones I've seen so far indicate that who makes them doesn't actually affect them very much at all. Someone care to enlighten me?

Comments

[autopope.livejournal.com]

It's very simple: Nokia have panicked.

Panic sometimes affects firms and makes them do weird things -- like Psion in 1998, who shrieked and ran away from a field they dominated because Microsoft announced a vapourware product.

In this case, Nokia have been wheel-spinning for a while on the successor to Symbian. They've recently had senior execs finger-pointing at their institutional culture as an obstacle to innovation. With Win7Phone, M$ are in an unusual position for them (these days), of being the underdog. Nokia's top brass probably figure that they can grab the majority stake of Win7Phone shipments, being Nokia, while simultaneously getting their own house in order, and pushing MeeGo back a few years. Just like Palm circa 2005, bringing out WinMobile smartphones while ramping back on PalmOS and trying desperately to get a new OS out the door.

But once they're shipping Win7Phone they're going to find their market share eroded progressively by cheaper box-shifters (just as happened to all WinPC OEMs), while Microsoft works to tie them down to the one OS. And there'll be an internal Win7Phone business unit working to undermine MeeGo or FutureOS or whatever is brewing in-house as a replacement, because they don't want to lose their jobs. And the external pressure to reform/restructure/set the Nokia house in order has just come off the boil, so the odds are high that the restructuring won't happen.

In short, I think Nokia just doomed themselves. Least-bad outcome for them is that they doomed themselves like HP, who are still big and in business but in horrible disarray and dependent on MS. Worst-case outcome is that they are doomed, period.

M$, in contrast, probably just quadrupled the market share of Win7Phone two years down the line.

[andrewducker]

Yeah, that's pretty much how it feels to me too. MS get a big boost from Nokia selling their phones, but once you've had a Win7Phone, you'd buy your next one for that, not because it was made by Nokia. Sure, some people buy Dell, or Toshiba, Lenovo PCs, but the vast majority just want something that runs Windows.

I can definitely see this being good for MS, but I think you're right that Nokia just doomed themselves.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

If Nokia is indeed doomed by this, they've been doomed for years by their inability to create a modern version of Symbian and this is only an acknowledgement of that.

-- Steve'll note that the MobileTech guys figured Nokia would go with Win7 in part because Nokia's CEO used to be a Microsoftie... which could be used as a face-saver when they finally acknowledged that Symbian-next was never going to be.

[andrewducker]

Oh goodness, yes. If they'd managed to put a decent UI on Symbian, and make it a lot easier to develop apps for it, then they'd be fine, and not have had to make the decision they just did.

[matgb]

In short, I think Nokia just doomed themselves. Least-bad outcome for them is that they doomed themselves like HP, who are still big and in business but in horrible disarray and dependent on MS. Worst-case outcome is that they are doomed, period.

PRetty much my take as well, a completely clueless decision. However, not sure I agree with you about HP, with WebOS they may be able to claw themselves back.

I have zero interest in an iPad, but a TouchPad looks like something I could make use of.

Ah well, just as I was really getting to like using Nikia phones they decide to pull the plug on them.

[iainjcoleman.livejournal.com]

I can see the potential downsides for Nokia. But might this nonetheless have been the least worst option? Starting from where they are now, would they have time to restructure themselves and ship a new, market-leading OS before an irrevocable loss of market share? That seemed to be the danger that Elop was concerned about.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

I listen to a podcast called "MobleTech Roundup", and their take on a (hypothetical at the time) joint venture between Nokia and Microsoft is that both sides would benefit greatly; Nokia's software division has been mired for years trying to make a "next gen" operating system, and MS's Windows 7 Phone platform hasn't yet been installed in any really "knock out" hardware. A joint venture ties Nokia's excellent build quality with MS's latest-and-greatest.

As for the software being a differentiator, well, with the success of all those Android phones they viewed it to be less important a factor than it once was.

-- Steve's no expert on mobile phones, though, as he must confess he's never owned even a "dumb" mobile let alone a smartphone. He's just relaying those guys' opinion.

[despotliz.livejournal.com]

I like my current Nokia phone, but plan to ditch it shortly in favour of Android. I might have a mistaken impression, but it seems like Symbian has been left behind a bit, and Android/iOS have overtaken in terms of making nice phones with lots of useful apps for them, and they are priority for app developers. what I am currently liking about my Nokia E71 is that it seems to be indestructible, I dropped it while cycling (albeit slowly) and it's only got a small scratch on it. So if Win7phone is a nice bit of software, and from reports from friends it seems to be pretty good, then the combination of solid hardware + nice OS might swing me back to Nokia.

Not sure why it's better for Nokia than updating their own OS, but I am not knowledgeable enough about phones to know if it's a death knell to team up with MS.

[andrewducker]

That was the reason I swung over to Android. I know some people have had problems with them, but I'm very happy with mine.

The problem with Nokia moving to WinPhone is that Microsoft don't allow any deviation from the standard interface. So Nokia may make a really nice WinPhone, but so can anyone else. They're not going to be very differentiated from other phone makers, so far as I can tell.

[johncoxon.livejournal.com]

Nokia have announced that they're going to be allowed to edit the interface, so I think you're slightly misunderstanding the situation. See here.

[andrewducker]

Something similar to that is in today's links.

Where I am left wondering how HTC, LG, etc. feel about it...

[matgb]

miss_s_b took that approach, and traded her 5800 for a Desire. A month later, the Desire was returned and she has an N8.

N8 is the only phone available running the modern Symbian, and both of us like it.

Until I read this news today, I was really looking forward to May which is the earliest point I can upgrade my now slightly batter 5800 to an N8. Given N8 sales have been good, it was enticing Devs onto Symbian so there would be more Apps.

Today, they've killed the idea of developing for Symbian, regardless of what they say, so, while I'll mostly just want to have a decent phone, I'm not as keen.

I think Charlie's right at the top, the new CEO took a look at what was going on and decided to nuke the site from orbit instead of actually looking at the key strengths of the company he knows little about.

When you do go for a new phone, give the N8 a serious look, it really is a nice bit of kit. Android, or at least the Desire, doesn't appear to actually be a good phone, it's a mobile computing device without enough battery power and with limited phone functionality. In a few years, witha lot more user testing, they'll be bloody good, but now?

I still plan to get an N8 unless somethign really good comes along. Unless I can get a Palm/HP WebOS powered device on contract.

[drjon.livejournal.com]

It looks like MicroSoft have finally found their IBM for the mobile market.