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Lost Beyond Brexit
Feb. 20th, 2023 08:24 amAs the Conservatives seem to be tying themselves in knots over Northern Ireland again, I thought I'd try and summarise where we're up to:
1) There is no agreement which both the EU and the DUP will agree to. The DUP will not accept the ECJ having a say, and the EU reasonably feel that rulings on EU law need to be subject to its highest court. Fundamentally the DUP won't accept Northern Ireland being inside the EU single market, and having it outside violates the Good Friday Agreement.
2) Many Conservatives will not agree to any deal that the DUP won't back.
3) Therefore the only way to pass a deal is with the support of non-Conservatives, which Starmer has said he'll help push, but doing that would turn the ongoing Conservative cold civil war into a very hot one.
Addendum: Johnson has clearly been jockeying for advantage on this front, and some of his more vocal supporters seem to have forgotten just how badly Partygate went down with the general public, and that he's about to be called to give evidence in an investigation that could trigger a by-election.
Frankly, I don't see how they the Conservatives get anything positive out of any of this, and the only positive aspect of it for the rest of us is that it makes their electoral prospects even worse.
1) There is no agreement which both the EU and the DUP will agree to. The DUP will not accept the ECJ having a say, and the EU reasonably feel that rulings on EU law need to be subject to its highest court. Fundamentally the DUP won't accept Northern Ireland being inside the EU single market, and having it outside violates the Good Friday Agreement.
2) Many Conservatives will not agree to any deal that the DUP won't back.
3) Therefore the only way to pass a deal is with the support of non-Conservatives, which Starmer has said he'll help push, but doing that would turn the ongoing Conservative cold civil war into a very hot one.
Addendum: Johnson has clearly been jockeying for advantage on this front, and some of his more vocal supporters seem to have forgotten just how badly Partygate went down with the general public, and that he's about to be called to give evidence in an investigation that could trigger a by-election.
Frankly, I don't see how they the Conservatives get anything positive out of any of this, and the only positive aspect of it for the rest of us is that it makes their electoral prospects even worse.
