(no subject)

[andrewducker]

SNP takes Safe Labour seat in 22% swing

Just wondering why I haven't seen more mention of this on my friends list, which usually has a chunk of people interested in politics...

Comments

[nwhyte]

I fear that "Labour doomed" is no longer news!!!

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Possibly because it was announced at about 3am this morning.

[accordingly.livejournal.com]

Because we were all asleep/in work!

Although my mother did feel the need to text to tell me the news at 2.26am.

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

the fact that the guy won with fewer votes than the old labour majority shows it was a pretty poor turn out. hell its a by-election, usually means not much.

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

from memmory, he won with 11k votes, 300 odd over the next candidate, old majority was 13k.

[pickwick.livejournal.com]

The turnout wasn't significantly worse than in the general election for that seat, 42.5% rather than 48%. Considering it was a by-election and it's the first week of the Glasgow Fair, people seem to think that was an OK turnout. It's just that Labour used to have over 70% of the vote, and that's plummeted.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

They held the election during the Glasgow fair. Everyone will be in Spain or Blackpool.

[pisica.livejournal.com]

I only just logged in, though I probably won't bother commenting on it, except to point out that this is almost certainly the only time ANYONE cares what Shettleston thinks about anything.

I need a politics icon, pronto.

[e-halmac.livejournal.com]

It was in mine becuase one of my mad friends is involved with the SNP in Glasgow. He hasn't had much of a life for the past few weeks.

[matgb]

???

I don't follow the logic here. The Labour vote collapsed, SNP came from a distant second to scrape a victory and the turnout was roughly the same as at the last General, when in normal by elections the turnout is normally much lower than at GEs.

The psephologist in me is pretty sure that the low turnout at the last GE was due to stay at home we-can't-win SNP supporters living in a very safe Labour seat now turning out, and that the people that voted this time weren't necessarily the people that voted last time, but without an on-the-ground analysis that's just guesswork.

@Andy: I haven't posted yet because I only got out of bed half an hour ago.

[blearyboy.livejournal.com]

I'm only surprised because I thought everyone had written off Labour's chances of keeping the seat a couple of weeks ago when they couldn't find a candidate.

[opusfluke.livejournal.com]

Maybe it's because nobody could be arsed?

[bohemiancoast.livejournal.com]

I was watching! But I keep funny hours. On the whole it was an interesting count to watch. 6th safest Labour seat (in Scotland, or in UK, not sure?).

Turnout wasn't particularly low for that seat especially given Glasgow Fair, pretty interesting all round. Classic by-election voting pattern, though it's unusual for SNP to pick up huge swings and it's an indication that people locally are more content with Scottish Executive than they are with Westminster.

[andrewducker]

Reports I've seen said third safest in Scotland, 25th in the UK. But I suspect there are differences in measurement going on there somewhere.

And yes - I suspect that people have come to the conclusion that the SNP aren't going to wreck the country and are mostly voting anti-labour.

Frankly, unless things change before the next election (which is two years away, so who knows), I expect a landslide to the Tories, largely on the back of anti-labour sentiment.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

I think everyone is on holiday today!!! Lj is v quiet..

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure. they said voting was way up in tight wards for SNP. They kept teling people this would be a historic bye election loss, so the anti Labour people all went out and voted - fugures. Clasic bye election stuff. At a general, they'd stay in and watch TV :-P

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

They do not go to Blackpool anymore!!!! That is urban myth. More likely the Maldives :-P

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

If not Glaswegians then who goes there. Does anyone go to Blackpool any more?

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

The Japanese. clearly.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

It's strange that the SNP have been in charge in Holyrood for over a year now and yet they are still seen as the protest vote. The east end of Glasgow is about as safe a seat as you can get for Labour, yet they still lost.

Not living there any more, it's harder to get a feel for things, but I get the impression Scottish politics is now becoming very much Scotland versus London, and the SNP are pushing that angle as hard as they can. It always was that way but it was "Scottish" Labour versus the "English" Tories. But now Labour is being seen as a "London" party after years of being the opposition to "London".

If, as looks likely, the Tories win the next election, that will surely only bolster the "London" v "Scotland" consensus. And if we have Tories in Westminster and the SNP in Holyrood it will be so easy for the SNP to portray every single issue as a cross-border spat. Neither side will have an interest in gathering votes the other side of the border, and where will that lead to.

Most likely Alex Salmond's fce on huge posters saying "Vote for Independence on Thursday". It might actually happen, which I think would be a bad thing for Scotland, but on that I may well be in the minority.

[a-pawson.livejournal.com]

Like insects they are attracted to the shiny lights.

[andrewducker]

Who else would Labour protesters vote for in protest?

Nobody is going to blame the SNP for the economy. So they blame Labour, and vote against Brown.

I don't think it's all Scotland vs London - Labour did just fine in the first Holyrood elections, and would have been fine this time around if they were doing a good job. But people just don't trust them any more.

[cynthia1960.livejournal.com]

Datapoint from the other side of the pond: National Public Radio saw fit to talk about it on today's Morning Edition (www.npr.org (http://www.npr.org) and look at the listings for today's show). One observation had me intrigued: the reporter noted that Brown seems to have a favorable opinion of him overseas, it's when he turns to domestic issues that everything goes bad.

[loveandgarbage.livejournal.com]

Ive only just got on the PC today, having spent a not quite fruitless day in pursuit of a new pair of glasses (follwing my old pair's summary execution by my 3 year old) and have lacked any vision. I may post briefly about it in the next few minutes.

PS Judging by some Scottish political blogs (Stephen Glenn's Lib Dem blog) the SNP leaked the returns of the postal votes two days before the vote. This is not on in general political terms, as the information should not be capable of being used on the day of the vote. I am astonished that more was not made of this before the vote.

[nuttyxander.livejournal.com]

I'm still working on my post, staying up til the wee small hours for the result destroyed any hopes of a quick blog post.

[pickwick.livejournal.com]

Heh, I just went and listened to that - it's really interesting to hear it from an American point of view! I'm amazed it was mentioned at all.

[burkesworks.livejournal.com]

Blow-by-blow account on mine, as there usually is when it's by-election time. Have added you seeing as you know a lot of people I do and you're in more-or-less the same political camp.