Some thoughts on the Gorton and Denton by-election

[andrewducker]

A bit of context - A safe Labour seat switched to a seat where Labour came third (Greens 40%, Reform 28%, Labour 25%).

1) That wasn't as close as polls made it out to be. The polls had Green 7% above or tied with Labour, who were either 3% ahead of or tied with Reform. Instead, Greens walked it by 12%. If we're going to be stuck with making decisions about tactical voting based on the polls then we need polls that are more accurate than that!

2) This is the worst possible result for Labour. If people are going to vote tactically against Reform (which they really want to do), then you *really* want to be able to place yourself as the best alternative to beat them. And now we've had two by-elections where that wasn't the case. One in Wales, which Plaid Cymru won and one in *Manchester*, a Labour heartland, which the Greens won. This makes it look like even where Labour are historically strong they aren't going to beat Reform.

3) What does this do for the Greens in the council elections? Well, presumably it sets them up to claim that they're a strong contender to beat Reform, everywhere where Labour is currently the lead. They might be! They might not be! But it really doesn't look good for Labour any way around.

4) What does it do for the Lib Dems in the council elections? It probably locks them out from any of the Labour heartlands - they'll focus on the Conservative areas of the country. Which, frankly, appears to be their strategy anyway.

5) I have no idea who a bunch of people actually wanted to vote for. It seems likely that at least 28% wanted to vote for each of Labour, Greens, and Reform, but if the polls had shown that Labout was on 30% and Greens were on 28%, who would that extra 12% who voted for the Greens have turned out for?

6) This is a bloody stupid way to run an election system. "I'll vote for whoever has the best chance of beating the party I don't like" is such a fragile way of voting for anything. It "works" in a 2 (or 2.5) party system, as England has been stuck in for decades. It completely fails in a 5 party system (6 in Wales and Scotland).

7) What does this mean for Keir Starmer? Well, I reckon nobody else wants to be PM for the council elections. So I'm not expecting him to resign until the 8th of May.

8) What does this mean for Labour's "Tack rightward to gain votes from fascists" strategy? Your guess is as good as mine, but I really hope it's dead now.

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

Mostly because Alba are fudds.

There was some talk at the begining of Alba that their strategy should be to be the Almost SNP Party and game the list system.

[andrewducker]

Yeah. They positioned themselves far enough to the Right that they put off most people who were currently voting for the SNP. It turns out the "Like the SNP, but Christian Right" doesn't pull in that many voters.

[danieldwilliam]

There are not that many members of the Christian Right in Scotland.

I could see a space for a more socially conservative but a more radically pro-independence party. There are plenty of socially conservative votes and there are plenty of voters who want a pro-independence party that is not taking an approach of creeping Home Rule. I could see a party that added a third leg to that of being the List Spoof Party picking up enough seats to be viable.

But Alba seemed not to be those people.

[andrewducker]

Checking recent polls, 19% of Reform would vote for Independence, so there's definitely space there.

Only 1% of Conservatives though, so not much chance there.

[danieldwilliam]

And there are plenty of social conservative voters - or voters who do have weak valance for social issues - in the Labour Party, SNP and even the Greens.

[andrewducker]

Yes, but if they're already voting for the Greens or SNP then it doesn't sound like they're desperate to be pulled off in some other direction.

Although if a very competent Conservative Independence party springs up then some might make the leap. I'm not sure that Alba were actively incompetent though. Just not appealing enough to pull many people in.

[danieldwilliam]

Yeah - I mean this is a niche case where pro-independence voters who happen to be socially conservative or agnostic were minded to game the system a bit in order to gain 2 or 3 extra seats.

From what I've heard of Alba's internal processes I would describe them as actively incompentent as an organisation despite the fact that at least some of their MSPs were competent.

[andrewducker]

Aaah. I hadn't heard about their internal processes.

I wonder if they were nearly as bad as Your Party.

[danieldwilliam]

I follow James Kelly's blog about Scottish election polling. Or rather I follow James Kelly's blog for the posts about Scottish election polling I get the insight into leaving the SNP for Alba and then being expelled from Alba and rejoining the SNP for free.

Having read his fairly in depth analysis about Alba's disciplinary process and then watching Chris McEleny being suspended from the party and suggestions that the party's financial difficulties are due to fraud I think they would aspire to being as bad as Your Party.

(Although I did find myself agreeing with Jeremy Corbyn a few nights ago then reminded myself of Michael Howard "Are you thinking what we're thinking."

[andrewducker]

I regularly agree with something Jeremy Corbyn has said. But also regularly disagree with things he's said. And don't think he'd be good at running the country. Just better than anyone in the Conservative Party.

[danieldwilliam]

His job should always have been to sit on the backbenches and heckle.

[andrewducker]

He was pretty good at that.

[danieldwilliam]

He was and I think it's an important job. Not every MP has to be a potential government minister. Some can be campaigners on a important but niche issues. Some can do the job of pointing out the moral compromises that government entails. Some are policy wonks or great local representatives or procedural Parliamentarians. Some add to the gaiety of the nation (Gyles Brandreth I am looking at you sir.)

[andrewducker]

Absolutely.

Or, in a different voting system we'd have different parties applying that pressure on each other.

[andrewducker]

Oh, and yes, possibly less competent than Your Party in every way except for not looking like a bunch of infighting weirdos.

[danieldwilliam]

On the scope of not looking like a bunch of infighting weirdos between Alba and Your Party I reckon it would go to the judges and be decided on points.

[andrewducker]

I'm intrigued, because I've heard a lot about Your Party, how one of them jumped the gun on collecting dues, then refused to hand them over, and it was all very public.

Whereas with Alba I heard very little about what they were up to internally.

Clearly I was reading the wrong newspapers.

[danieldwilliam]

I don't recommend reading James Kelly's blog on his experiences with Alba. I've read it so you don't have to. But that was my window into the world of Alba operations. I was amazed but not impressed.

[andrewducker]

I shall happily take your word for it!