Interesting Links for 21-04-2025

[andrewducker]

1. The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

(tags:life money philosophy )

2. As unions decline, inequality rises

(tags:unions inequality )

3. Happy Easter! 'Chris is Risen'!

(tags:spelling fail easter UK religion Christianity )

4. 'Biological reality': What genetics has taught us about race

(tags:race racism genetics history politics USA )

Comments

[juan_gandhi]

Chris, not Brian, this year?

Thank you for the "nihilism" article.

As to the race, it's so deeply American. THe idea of "Hispanic race", for instance. Or "Asian race". What's in common between a Japanese and a Jewish person? (That's assuming that somebody still remembers that Israel is in Asia), a Chukcha and a Malayali...

[andrewducker]

Oh yes, it doesn't stand up to very much thought at all.

[bens_dad]

Chris, not Brian, this year?

"Monty Python" Brian, or Brian Wren ?

[juan_gandhi]

Never heard of Brian Wren, until today. Hosanna!
No, I meant the one from Monty Python.

1.

[channelpenguin]

That's me. The "given up playing" kind of financial nihilist. The author isn't wrong that it's probably bleed from general nihilism.

I failed at "live fast, die young"and didn't have any other credible plan, nor have I found one.

Paradoxically, look after my health because that matters a lot in the moment, and moment to moment. Better mood and nothing hurting is worth it. Not that I find any of it difficult, and having upped the difficulty level by growing all my own veg, it even keeps me amused (I eat plant-based since end of 23). I need to get back to the weights though!

My adorable wee cat Felix needs me, so I've got to stay in good working order for another 15-20 years (he's 3 this year).

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[juan_gandhi]

A good reason to stay alive. And yes, health is more important. Financial troubles may cause a lot of stress.

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[channelpenguin]

Oh, I agree on both.

As long as I'm working, money is no really practical issue. Except I can't afford to renovate the farmhouse and outbuildings unless I take a loan or sell the Berlin apartment (which has just cost 2.5k as my share of the necessary building works).

I don't want to sell the apartment though. Because it is only 42m², costs nothing to heat and all things are walkable/public transport. In case I get frail and needy when I'm old (I'm 54 this year, so that's not soon. Though like us all, immune system getting hit repeatedly by COVID might make it all happen sooner. But I've only had it once, that I know).

When my paternal grandmother got to over 100 (independent living alone until 99!) I gave up any kind of hope in funding pensions, especially having worked for a pensions company AND many investment banks and seen it all from the inside...

It's just impossible to plan if you MIGHT live that long. I've already outlived my maternal grandmother (dead at 51). So the error bars on my life expectancy are just too huge to plan sensibly.

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[andrewducker]

I assume that annuity rates aren't going to cut it?

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[channelpenguin]

Pensions companies are very restricted in what they are allowed to invest in, this was tightened up in .... The early aughts, if I recall right. They can't do very much that very "risky". As you know, that's where the money is (if you're lucky!)

Also, the longer you live, the more funds you need. Though life insurance and pensions companies will catch what downwards adjustments in expected lifespan are coming in future (are in fact already here...)

In general, markets are a gamble. Blah, blah index funds say you - 20 odd years ago I was also of that mind, but entry and exit points (i.e. "retirement") DO MATTER. It's easy enough to run a few sims and find more than a few bad patches.

I can't see markets over the long long term being able to keep going up up up. Capitalism is extractive and will have an end point. Along the way the bumps could be extreme, and since absolutely everything has been hugely overvalued for decades, the downside of those bumps is perhaps not too far ahead (or price has been utterly divorced from any form of connection to value, rather to hype and sometimes cults of personality). The "professionals", when they actually have any talent that isn't blind luck, generally have their time then burn out or just lose their touch as markets change. There are in any case SO many many opportunities NOT available to anyone without many many millions to invest.

My cynicism over "the pros" comes from working for them. Actual traders are unpleasant people in every possible way (quants are fine, but remind me of eccentric priests). We (as in the IT geeks) once put the prices for a variety of things over time from a random simulation in front of traders as if it were real (without telling them). They had "logical" stories tied to real world events at the times to "explain" the price movements. And utter confidence in that. They never knew. So from then on I was convinced it's all bullshit really.

"Technical Analysis" - or as I call it "Gossip Driven Trading" (as I understand and have observed it) relies on the idea that you can predict price patterns by treating them purely by what EVERYONE else might be doing, by catching market sentiment driven movements - divorced from any connection to product or its actual use or value. And getting in nearish the lows and out nearish the highs. It "works" because, and only as long as, so many people believe in it...

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[andrewducker]

Oh yes, active investing is really hard.

But I more meant that buying an annuity would then move the risk to the finance company, who would then be able to spread the risk across everyone.

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[channelpenguin]

That was kind of my point right at the top of my rant. Pension companies aren't allowed to make "risky" investments. So returns are low. It doesn't take much inflation to wipe out. And even "non-risky" investments may be (or may become) unreliable. Not hard right now to imagine government bonds of certain governments being less trusted and therefore less reliable.

But your pension annual statements over the past 20 years are already telling you all this, no?

Re: 1.

[andrewducker]

Mine was up 80% in the last 5 years, until Trump knocked it back down a chunk. So some risk is clearly allowed.

https://documents.feprecisionplus.com/Factsheet/SL/FS/ZQ30_en-GB.pdf

Not bitcoin amounts, obviously. But could be a lot worse!

There are also index-linked annuities. Although it looks like you'll get about 5% on those rather than the 7% you'd get on a straightforward one. But that's risk-hedging for you.

https://www.hl.co.uk/retirement/annuities/best-buy-rates

Re: 1.

[juan_gandhi]

Well, yes, counting on pension funds only might be not very reasonable. It's better to spread the investments.

But you have a lot of time ahead. At 54 I had almost no money, and a mortgage of about $350k. And I started working at Google that year.

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[channelpenguin]

Well done you!

I could never, and (more importantly) have ZERO desire to work for any of those type of companies. I'm a European through and through and I've done my time in the 5 years solid work no breaks when I was an IT contractor for all the investment banks in the city of London. I ended up nearly crippled physically and it took me 2 years off to even touch a computer again. I've not been useful at anything else I've tried.

I lost 110k in 2015 to a fraudulent investment fund - but after nearly alla decade, we put the bastard in jail, got his house, cars etc. liquidated (yielded pathetically little split 15 ways) and he's on permanent watch (him and family) for ever having any money - it will go straight to us. The (innocent and honest) friend in the same business who recommended him to me is several years dead now.

I've been set back, but I'm doing ok. No mortgage to speak of (50k). No debts.

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[juan_gandhi]

Oh, a European approach... we were in a pretty different state and position, having come to California from Russia, with $3k cash. After having spent 7 years at a pretty nice company, Borland, I eventually decided to earn some money on the "dark side" (that's how Borland viewed the Bay Area). And also, Google in 2005 was viewed as the brightest star, with all the geniuses working there. Well, kinda. I met lots of bright people. Josh Bloch got my resume there, so that's how, at 54, I was hired. It was fun, the first year, but eventually I started discovering the average mediocrity of the people around, the toxic atmosphere, the hidden hatred, etc. They had kicked me out, eventually, because some Chinese manipulators wanted to take over my project, "google keyboard", and they conspired to do it.

Well, but there was a lot of money in the Bay Area, so we managed to pay off our house, and, when covid kicked in, and I didn't have to go show up in the office, we figured, we are free to move. After our cat had died, nothing was holding us there.

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[channelpenguin]

Ah, great story. And about what I'd expect for Google (though the Chinese angle is a novel twist). Google keyboard, eh? Wow. Good idea!

Fun fact, my BF at university in 1988 had a final year project that was predictive text. He imagined maybe some limited use for disabled people ... Lol. (He ended up going into protein folding simulation then worked for ESA last I heard.

I've worked with a few Russian IT guys. Really sharp, most of them. I bet they would also find many Googlers mediocre.

You sound like you are my kind of cat "owner". Felix just turned up, probably born across the road at the dairy farm. This is his kingdom and I will not even consider moving from here as long as he is still with us. (My BF is under orders to move here and take over if I die first!).

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[juan_gandhi]

Owner? No, just a friend. Grew with cats, cohabited.

The last two ones... one was living around, and she was absolutely wild, running away when I tried to give her food. Giving birth to kittens in our backyard, in neighbors backyard. Once I decided, enough is enough, caught her (she already did not mind coming over to eat), stuffed here into a cooler, too her to "animal services" to neuter. Ok, she bith through my finger, but that was okay. In San Jose they had a kind of a law (signed by two mayors) that they don't kill cats. So they neutered her, and released her back, and she was gradually getting more and more used to us. Never entered our home, though. Then another one came, she had jumped from the fence and started jumping around me, like a circus horse. I was charmed right away. This one, Xena, she was really nice. Did not like getting into the house either, and was absolutely scared of our garage. But she was friendly with raccoons, with possums (one was her pet, she demanded food for him to eat).

So they lived with us until their deaths. I had buried them, and that's how we felt that we have noone in California, and are free to move.

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[channelpenguin]

Ah yes. It's a relationship. When I moved to the farm, I adopted a big feral tom cat that the local cat rescue had (finally) caught and neutered because he was causing trouble at the feeding station that had, by fighting the other cats. I kept him in the barn for 6 weeks (it was February, he was just FINE with that, it seemed), he had got used to me, would take treats from my hand, I could pick him up (not for long), he would follow me round the barn. I finally let him out, but after a couple of days of coming back for food, we heard a cat fight and then never saw him again, though the food would be eaten for months. I put a wildlife camera in the barn, but one tabby cat is so much like another in infrared video that I was never sure it was him. We never saw him again for sure. Eventually, the food didn't get eaten except by mice. The lady at the cat rescue said he was usually very reliable when it was Sunday time and would have expected him to say hello if he was about. I figure he went to go join one of the gangs of farm cats in the surrounding few km.

Then I tried another cat, Alf, a middle aged grumpy boy from an old couple who had downsized from a country house to a city apartment with the cat and 2 horrible yappy dogs and it wasn't going well. I was warned he wasn't cuddly, but I figured that was fine. Kept him in for a month, he'd randomly bite both me and my then-housemate and had no fear of his collie dog (who knows cats and is chill with them). Hard enough to draw blood. We literally did NOTHING to provoke it he would be happily sitting on you and you not even touching him and he would just bite. Follow you round and bite your ankles too. The line was drawn when he bit me in the hand after having been peacefully asleep on my lap. I even up at the hospital, nearly had to stay in, heavy antibiotics and 2 weeks off work (because when I got there I was literally with the doctor and he got called way for a big emergency and it was 8 hours till I got it properly treated and got antibiotics). You can lose fingers or your hand, you know? Too far. The cat home had no room at all, couldn't take him. It was summer, so I fed him outside, didn't let him back in the house. He would follow you round, wanting attention, then swatting at you. If he just didn't want anything from humans except food, that would have been totally fine, but he wasn't like that. He would just be dangerous. So after much anguish my boyfriend phoned the old couple and they had to take him back.

I couldn't even have taken him to the vet to see if he was in pain (he had not been since he was 2 looking at his vaccination card). But they'd had him too young, judging by some photos, and when the man came, and how he treated the cat (just picked him up and stuffed him in the carrier) and how indicated that you just had to "swipe him away" when he got too annoying, I could imagine exactly why the poor thing was how he was. Needy but randomly violent. Humans meant maybe treats, maybe cuddles, maybe just being swiped at. Poor cat. But I think he loved the old lady.

So, I said "no more cats". A few weeks later, Felix turned up in my hedge, about 8 -10 weeks old, skinny, crying and hungry. He'd never seen cat food, never been in a house, never heard music, but he was happy to be given some dry food, picked up and taken inside, and has been 100% sweet and gentle ever since. Total opposite! I kept him until he was 6 months old (soonest the vet would neuter him), harness trained him on one of those expanding leashes, and took him every day round the gardens, so he would learn his territory.

I have only ever picked him up against his will to take him out of danger or to the vet. He comes to me often enough on his own. He is easy to read and very gently pushes your hand away with his feet when he's had enough attention. I've had one scratch when catching him bare armed from a fall with he was small, and the very occasional slight one when he pats me because of course he needs his claws un-trimmed to be outside.

He is playful and loving and cuddles up to me every night to sleep. Makes sure I eat, fetches me from my work to sit and chill when it is too late and does his pest control job EXCELLENTLY! Mice, voles , rats, moles, huge hares... He even chases the fox! I figure he's from the dairy farm across the road, where there's a huge band of cats, and just didn't get on with the family. He really hates all other cats, and can growl like a panther so he scares them off without actual fights these days (he had injuries from a few when he was younger).

It's a relationship. I always have respected his bodily autonomy. Just because I'm bigger I don't just pick him up or stroke him when he doesn't invite it or anything that he doesn't want unless truly necessary for his health and safety. He knows this and even then doesn't struggle. His body language is easy to read. Such a sweetie!

But enough! Have a great day.

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[andrewducker]

Ooh! I'm using Google keyboard right now!

(I used to use Swype, but then they decided to not have any customers any more.)

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[juan_gandhi]

Thank you for the good news.

It was a really interesting project. I was not supposed to do it alone, but the woman with whom we agreed to work together left the company after a couple of weeks.

69 languages, 73 layouts (including Dvorak). Russian users were clueless about some characters from Old Russian, and laughed. But the Arabs appreciated it a lot. 10 Indic languages; the team in India was fighting me, because, you know, I'm not one of them. It was then that I learned that there's more than one correct spelling of the word Hindi in Hindi.

I had spent a year trying to get a disk space to deploy all my keyboards (20k each, zipped). At last a couple of French twins donated me space in Google Maps, as is it were just another tile.

Now the project is maintained by the guys in China. For some reason, they still can't spell the word "konnichiwa" in English, and one has to write "konnichiha" (the letter "ha" is pronounces as "wa" in this case).