My election recommendations

[andrewducker]

Labour are going to walk the election tomorrow. Every poll has shown this for months. It's not going to be anywhere near close. The final predictions are out, and it's a rout.

So, my recommendations are as follows.

First, open the link above, and then the spreadsheet at the bottom. Find your constituency. There's been a lot of movement, but you can check with your postcode here.

Look across to the WinnerGE2024 and SecondGE2024 columns, and also the Winner margin. If the margin is 5% or less then you're definitely in a marginal - the winner could easily change based on margin of error. Under 10% if you want to be really safe.

And then, my recommendations are as follows:

1) If you're living in a marginal with the Conservatives (or Reform) are in first or second: Vote for whoever might beat them. If we can push the Conservatives in to third place then that will be an amazing achievement, and utterly transform the next parliament. It's unlikely, but it's within the bounds of possibility. Imagine Labour being questioned by the Lib Dems at every question time rather than the Conservatives. Imagine if the attacks are from their left. That's something worth striving for.

2) If you're living outside of a marginal, or where neither Reform or the Conservatives are in the top 2: Help the minor parties grow. Labour have a manifesto full of austerity, and will take votes for them as a mandate for that. Send a message that this is not what you support. The Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and the Lib Dems all have more progressive manifestos than Labour. The more the smaller parties grow this time, the better placed they are to build on that next time. Help your favoured party either win a seat or grow their share to help attract more people for next time.

Comments

[angelofthenorth]

Also don't forget that Short money is a thing - every vote cast for smaller parties counts towards growing them.

I'm in a three way marginal so I'm going to have to vote plaid which sucks given their behaviour recently.

[andrewducker]

What have they been up to?

[angelofthenorth]

All the county councillors including the candidate signed a memo saying that Jonathan Edwards was treated too harshly for beating his wife. Imo he wasn't treated harshly enough.

[andrewducker]

Good grief!

How can they not understand how that looks?

[mtbc]

I hadn't known about Short money, thanks for the pointer.

[greenwoodside]

Voting Plaid here. They've got a local candidate – he doesn't seem to have made any unpleasant gaffes, though I need to go deeper into that; don't want to find out he's a fan of Netanyahu and is down on trans people on 5th July.

[andrewducker]

Good luck!

[greenwoodside]

Thanks!

[gingicat]

Sounds like an excellent plan.

[cmcmck]

We've been and voted.

We went Labour as they're the only ones standing a chance of getting the long serving idle bugger of a Tory out locally, but I fear them parachuting in a non local candidate may go down badly.

[myka]

I didn't see these recommendations before I voted, nevertheless I had the luxury of voting Green in a safe Labour constituency

[andrewducker]

I am delighted by there now being 4 Green MPs, and a bunch of Independents. And the Lib Dems doing well.

I want Labour to be scared that if they move to the right at all then they will lose more seats to their left.