andrewducker | (Reply)

From:

It's a tricky one for them.

Ukraine doesn't have much offensive capability. They have tanks, artillery and fighter-bombers but probably not enough to push the Russians out of positions they are determined to defend. If they try and fail to push them out they risk giving the Russians a much needed morale boost and ruining the only army the Ukrainians currently have in the field. So difficult and risky for them to ask for something they possibly can't take by force.

They have enough defensive capabilty to slow down the Russians and probably hold them more or less where they are and to do so in a way that is very costly and painful for the Russians (as well as for Ukraine.)

So the questions become how long is Ukraine prepared to accept a hostile but static enemy army in its country, how long is the West prepared to sanction Russia and how effectively can Russia fill in the economic gaps left by the sanctions. Who runs out of means and will first?

If the West is prepared to sanction Russia for the long haul and able to demonstrate that this is true (and probably also be willing to soft sanction other nations who actively help Russia so as to keep the Chinese neutral) then I think the Ukrainians should ask for Crimea back. If not, then they might need to settle for less.