A couple of thoughts about Covid - and a question

[andrewducker]

Firstly, Scotland just updated all of its infection figures to include reinfections, which means that the graph on TravellingTabby for "Cases by Specimen Date", which shows new cases in a different colour is currently showing all reinfections in an obvious way:


And it's basically showing near-zero reinfections before Omicron came along, and then a 9% increase in infections from that point onwards.

And then there's the other thing. Which is a bit more worrying. About 2 weeks ago, the number of people in Scottish hospitals with Covid started to go back up:


And I'm not at all sure why. The number of people catching Covid hasn't changed. The English hospital numbers are down 20% in that time. So what's happening in Scotland?

Also, why have Scottish case counts flatlined when Welsh and English case counts have kept dropping?



Graphs, as usual, from the award-winning TravellingTabby

Comments

[movingfinger]

I would wonder whether counting methodology has changed, officially or otherwise. Either in Scotland, or in the other three which track together.

Sorry the numbers are so high!

[andrewducker]

It's only half what it was when things were bad a year ago. So it's nowhere near critical. But it would be great if it would drop away to nothing, as everyone catches the damn thing and we all move on!

[chess]

Testing artifacts? Scotland is taking it all more seriously still than England which is very 'eh, covid is over, it's just a bad cold now' - which would reduce the number of reported cases as people don't bother to get tested, especially with a milder re-infection?

[mountainkiss]

IANA epidemiologist, but my understanding is that a booster vax gives lasting protection against serious illness but only temporary (c. 10 week?) protection against infection. I was expecting a rise in cases round about now as that period expires for the millions who got booster shots in response to Omicron.

[andrewducker]

That makes sense. Maybe we'll see one in England soon.

[mountainkiss]

I could be completely wrong.

[andrewducker]

As could we all :-)

[rhythmaning]

More likely to just bea little bit wrong, surely. I mean, it would take a lot to be completely wrong! (And it would make you last comment wrong, in which case...)

[mountainkiss]

Recursion alert.

[rhythmaning]

Btw you're probably unaware that I'm currently in covid-jail - I tested positive on Monday! I'm more or less fine - mostly a sore throat and a bit of a cough. And I am looking after myself!

[killerweasel]

I know here in Michigan (US), the numbers have dropped massively in the last few weeks. HOWEVER, I have yet to see anything as to if it has to do with how many people got the home testing kits mailed to them from the government so they aren't going to the hospital, doctor, or any of the covid places to have the infection recorded.

In December, we were averaging 32,000 ever two days (just here in Michigan), then by the end of January, it was around 16,000 every 2 days. As of today, they did a 3 day total for the state of around 1,800.

That's a hell of a drop, don't you think?

[andrewducker]

It is.

Either everyone's had it or they've stopped counting.

[reverancepavane]

I believe that testing is no longer a requirement in England and Wales, nor actively supported by the government, whilst is is still so in Scotland and Wales. [I could be wrong here, on the far side of the world.] This would naturally account for the relative decrease in weekly cases.

Just the addition of RATs tests here dropped the numbers, despite the fact that someone who tested positive was supposed to report their results. However a lot apparently didn't to avoid the required retest and strict quarantine, and basically just quarantined themselves for 10 days.

Given the problems I've heard about England's data collection procedures I'd trust Scotland's results more, especially as this fits with a disease that is now endemic to the population (a constant rate of infection).

On the other hand a declining rate of infection is politically favoured ("We beat the plague; elect us again."), so there really is no incentive to correct any erroneous data collection. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[hutchingsmusic]

Hospital figures - the number in hospital with Covid is rising, yes - but the number in ICU is slowly falling (and so is the number of new ICU admissions per day, currently hovering about an average of 3.

There are a few possible explanations:
1) people who need urgent care but are Covid-positive are being given that urgent care in hospital anyway, and being counted as new admissions even though Covid isn't the reason for their admission
2) people whose vaccines are wearing off somewhat are now more likely to catch covid than in the previous few months (particularly older people - case rate in every age group over 45 is rising in the last 30 days but falling in age groups 15-44) and they'll be taken into hospital for observation and necessary treatment, but the number in ICU staying low indicates that they're not getting severely ill. This would explain the recent Scotland/England difference - we vaccinated the most elderly and at risk a few weeks earlier than England did.
3) there could be more hospital-acquired infections as people become less cautious (possibly also due to a higher number of asymptomatic infections in this wave?)

I think 2 is the most likely here, as it's the only one that explains the country difference.