Interesting Links for 06-10-2021

[andrewducker]

'No alternative' to rising inflation, Boris Johnson says

(tags:inflation economics uk BorisJohnson Conservatives )

Yes, it's a big deal when Facebook goes down. This is why

(tags:Facebook socialmedia society )

UK Supreme Court upholds challenge to two Scottish bills (I am completely unsurprised)

(tags:Scotland UK law )

Covid pass to be introduced in Wales after Tory MS misses vote due to Zoom error (This feels wrong to me, not sure what the answer would be)

(tags:politics Technology failure wales )

You are allowed to leave

(tags:advice )

Sunlight affects whether languages have a word for 'blue'

(tags:light colour biology )

Henrietta Lacks heirs sue biotech firm for stealing her cells

(tags:racism research medicine intellectual_property rights women viaSwampers )

Comments

Supreme Court Judgement

[danieldwilliam]

I think those two bills were intended by the Scottish Government to be challenged and I think it is probably in their plan that the bills be ruled ultra vires and struck down. It very clearly makes a point they want to make about the constitutional position of Scotland and the political direction of Scotland.

Re: Supreme Court Judgement

[andrewducker]

It will certainly speak to a particular crowd.

I wonder how many who aren't already in favour of independence.

Re: Supreme Court Judgement

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure it's about changing people's mind. I think it's more about bolstering the moral resolve of those who are in favour of independence. It says pretty clearly that they are (on this specific thing) correct and helps to create a perception of righteousness.

Re: Supreme Court Judgement

[andrewducker]

Fair. I certainly think we'd be more likely to uphold rights than Westminster.

Re: Supreme Court Judgement

[andrewducker]

Whole bunch of moral resolve going on here

https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1445678505371467784

Re: Supreme Court Judgement

[danieldwilliam]

Just so.

Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

Strictly speaking prices going up because there is a labour shortage is not inflation. It's a wide spread price increase.

Re: Inflation

[andrewducker]

Does that not count towards inflation?

Re: Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

Inflation is a slipery beast.

Strictly speaking inflation is a general rise in all prices. So instead of paying £1 for a unit of production you now pay £2 and instead of receiving £1 for a unit of your own production you now receive £2 and you are no worse off. It's a bit more complicated than that. Debt and pensions for example, are complex, but that's the nub of it.

What we're seeing here are specific price increases in markets that touch a lot of industries - haulage and energy - which will have a widespread impact on costs - which may or may not appear as higher consumer prices or lower profits or have an effect of lowering other factor costs (truck drivers get a pay increase, security guards do not, for example).

I fully accept that the general public (and many economists) use the word inflation when they talk about the second phenomenon but it's a bit disingenous. Particularly as it is likely that the cures for overly-high inflation such as increased interest rates or credit controls won't help much with the second case which require physical changes in the way the factors of production are organised or some micro-economic behavioural changes, like buying different stuff.

Re: Inflation

[andrewducker]

Ah, so this *may* lead to inflation, but we have to wait and see if it does.

Re: Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

Yes, I think that's probably a fair assessment given my understanding of inflation.

It would be more honest of the government to say
1) the World and British economies are growing quickly after a long and unusual period of contraction
2) additional changes to the UK labour market (which you voted for) are also happening
3) this means that the supply of energy and the supply of workers for many types of job is out of balance with the increaed demand
4) you will see this in some combination of shortage and prices increases for many (but not all) goods and services.
5) there is not much the government can do about this in the short-term
6) some of it will go away on its own as energy markets and chip manufacturers catch up
7) here is a longer-term plan to address the fundamentals

and I'm not saying that they are *not* saying that. Many of the elements of that argument have been mentioned. Not sure how sincere they are about it or how much they appreciate that there is an economic difference between saying a thing and doing a thing. But a bit a waffle about inflation is not really the answer.

Re: Inflation

[andrewducker]

Probably not!

And yes, if I felt they understood the fundamentals I'd be a lot happier.

Is there actually increased demand in the UK versus, say, 2019?

Re: Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure there is a huge amount of additional demand now than in 2019. There will be a bit of a backlog in demand and some things will be in the wrong place or wrong configuration (see the problems with loo roll back at the beginging of lockdown when half the loo roll produced in the UK was for offices).

I think specifically on HGV drivers the numbers of drivers have been steadily falling for years I believe and then the impact of Brexit on drivers and lorries from the EU.

Re: Inflation

[andrewducker]

Yeah, drivers were slowly declining, but we were making do. And then Brexit pushed us over the edge and made it clear quite how fragile the system is.

Re: Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

I do incidently have quite a lot of sympthay for the government position that it is not their job to prevent shortages at Christmas - when shortages are defined as sausages being more expensive or in short supply and not inadequate calories are available.

Re: Inflation

[andrewducker]

I have a certain amount of sympathy for it not being their job to make sure that we must all have the food we expect, rather than there just being sufficient food.

Except that I largely view it as their fault. If Brexit had *necessitated* the level of cutting ourselves off that we did then one could say "They followed through on what they were told to do, and the consequences must now be accepted." But there were many middle grounds they could have gone with, and I can totally hold them responsible for not having done so, and the consequences thereof.

Re: Inflation

[danieldwilliam]

This is true.

At one level it is not the government's job to make sure that specific goods are in specific shops at specific times at a specific price.

At a higher level it is the government's job to create the container where it is easy for people to buy and sell the things they want to (allowing for other societal considerations) by e.g. not ruining our membership of the Single Market.

[cmcmck]

I was made to leave, but that soon turned into 'allowed' as I made my own life.

It really is important to understand this.

[mountainkiss]

I love that last line. "If you want a better world, be a better human being."

[andrewducker]

I also like ‘Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation’.

[mountainkiss]

I only sort of like that. If we're in the dying throes of a civilisation then working as if we were in the early days of a better nation is (i) denial and (ii) probably the wrong work to be doing. But I understand your point.