A brief trip into the world...of tomorrow!

[andrewducker]

2020 is going to suck. Not for everyone, and not in every way, but for the country it will not be a happy time. It will be ameliorated by the fact that the Johnson government is currently intending to actually spend some money in The North, and that Brexit won't come into effect until 2021, but it's still going to be a stressful time as the Conservatives run the country badly, and it becomes obvious how bad a deal we're going to get.

2021 will be worse. Either we will have a terrible deal or we will be crashing out with no deal, or Johnson will break his pledge and continue negotiating for a merely awful deal. None of these will be any fun for anyone. We can look forward to a _lot_ of recriminations. I'm hoping enough people will blame the Conservatives to do them some serious damage. I strongly suspect that a lot of people will say "It wasn't my fault, I trusted that person over there who told me that it would all be ok."

2022-2024 will be hilarious for anyone watching from a safe distance, as the wheels entirely come off, and people realise that the UK has been a tiny island at the corner of the world for quite some time, which has done well through a mixture of helping people to avoid tax, and managing its slow decline from Empire, but isn't actually at all special.

The major question is whether Labour can get their act together enough to take advantage of this, along with enough people saying "We realise we were taken for a ride, and are up for a nice close relationship with Europe" to mean that the next election is less awful. I strongly suspect that I'll be voting SNP again.

I am _vaguely_ hopeful that either that election or the next one (in 2028) will go well enough for the country to turn in a positive direction. If Labour will actually back PR (as they are shifting towards - but they've promised that a lot in the past), and can come up with a leader and positive media-management strategy then that would be a good start.

Somewhere in all of this we'll have another Scottish Independence referendum, and possibly an Irish unification referendum. How those will go is anyone's guess. Too close to call. (Last polling shows Northern Ireland at 51% to join the republic, and in the Republic it's 65% to 19%. Scottish Independence is literally 50:50. Both will undoubtedly be swayed by the effects of Brexit.)

In any case, I've basically written off the next few years, and am pinning my hopes on the end of the decade, rather than the next year or two.

Comments

[cmcmck]

Having lived through the Thatcher era I wonder how much worse this can be?

We will see, no doubt.

Any road up, happy new year to you and yours!

[rhythmaning]

I think it could be a lot worse. Sorry for such pessimism so early in the new year. I'm not sure if I can justify this view. We'll see.

[andrewducker]

I think it would be dangerous by itself. With Brexit it can be far far worse.

[maia]

am pinning my hopes on the end of the decade

By the end of the decade, civilization is going to be on the brink of collapse due to climate change.

[mountainkiss]

Yes, I was going to say something like this. I’m not sure if the only possible construction is “civilisation on the brink of collapse” but I think any framing of the decade that doesn’t have climate change at the centre will be very quickly out of date.

[myka]

this is not what I signed up for when I moved here :-(

[calimac]

Well, assuming no sudden collapse of civilization (which is a possibility we've had to live with for over half a century, thanks to atomic bombs, so it's nothing new), I'd say the only hope for Scotland, and Northern Ireland too, is to detach themselves from the sinking ship which is the Brexit-bound UK.

[dewline]

It's what someone else decided to sign you up for over your objections, though.

[dewline]

My fear is that Trump and Brexit were imposed specifically to magnify the effects of the climate emergency and leave the US and UK with no useful ways to resist that catastrophe's effects. Among other goals, of course.

[andrewducker]

I'm in general agreement.

(Although a border between Scotland and England would not be any fun at all!)

[aldabra]

"In any case, I've basically written off the next few years, and am pinning my hopes on the end of the decade, rather than the next year or two."

Oh ay, but then we shall be twenty-four.

[channelpenguin]

I pretty much gave up medium-term planning a few years ago because of Brexit.

I've absolutely given up long term planning because of climate change / other likely large scale social upheaval probabilities.

I've zero stake in the future, due to my never-changed decision at about 12 not to have kids. (THAT was due to growing up in the 70s/80 with a combination of the likelihood of nuclear war, environmental and / or social collapse feeling inevitable. I was rather blasé then, it seems more of a deal / harder to contemplate now I'm older).

Even given that, my own lifespan is wildly uncertain (eg one gran dead at 51 from ovarian cancer, one at over 100 from ... nothing, I have dangerous hobbies too...) and so pretty much immune to optimal planning.

I'm not sure what a rational response to the likely futures is, or should be.

I've got my music and my boat and I'm just trying to enjoy as much of that as I can. I should probably go all in on that again soon, and stop wasting so much of that uncertain lifespan working (though I am a big fat geek and it's often kinda fun)