Interesting Links for 03-11-2019

[andrewducker]

Confusion as no one turns up for 'huge' pro Brexit demo in Doncaster

(tags:UK Europe protests )

Hailing a driverless taxi is finally possible (in a tiny area of Phoenix)

(tags:driving automation )

Lib Dems stand aside for Green Party's Vix Lowthion on Isle of Wight

(tags:libdem green politics UK europe )

Best for Britain seem to have the best data for tactical voting.

(tags:voting UK Europe )

Comments

[wildeabandon]

I'm fairly unconvinced by Best for Britain's claims. I believe that their recommendations are based on modelling of genuine data, but I also have no doubt that other models would give very different recommendations, and I find their confidence in one particular model that happens to paint an extraordinarily optimistic picture for the Lib Dems unconvincing and simplistic.

I'd love it if there were 180 seats where we might plausibly win, but it doesn't seem at all realistic.

[calimac]

I'm puzzled by this too. Kensington is a Labour seat, yet they're advising a Lib Dem vote there because the Lib Dems are very far ahead in that seat? What's the assurance of validity of that polling?

[andrewducker]

That it's based on asking people right now who they intend to vote for, and not on the last election where an awful lot of people were very clear they were lending Labour their vote, and then were told they voted for a Brexit supporting party.

Things have changed dramatically since then (see the European and council election results for a starter, and the "Bollocks to Brexit" approach of the Lib Dems has been doing very well)

[doug]

Yes, having kicked the tyres on it I am very unconvinced, in both directions. (It also gave hilariously wrong results in Northern Ireland, but I think there was a disclaimer about that somewhere.)

Fundamentally, an MRP is a prediction of the result, which is not the same sort of model as you would want to tell you the best tactical voting choice to recommend. A good MRP already accounts for tactical voting, so you can't just simply use the highest vote. Also, it ends up recommended to vote against sitting non-Tory MPs, which is nonsense on stilts for tactical voting advice.

It's possible that with both LibDems and Labour accusing them of bias, they are accurate. It's also possible that their results are rubbish.

[calimac]

This is the same Brexit-supporting Labour that they want you to vote for in other seats where it will stop the Tories. Talk about confusing and inconsistent messages. If I were a Kensington voter I'd be panicking right now. In fact, if I were in any seat with a Labour MP who wasn't a strong Remainer, or where the tactical-voting people are recommending such shenanigans as they are in Kensington, I'd be panicking. What to do?

[andrewducker]

Labour are at least promising a referendum. And in places where only they can beat the Conservatives I think it's a necessary compromise to support them and hope for the best!

[doug]

This is all not helped by getvoting.org being as untransparent as one can legally be about their funding (check out the FAQ, it's hilarious), and getvoting.net being an entirely transparent LibDem property that (now) simply redirects to the main LibDem home page.