Where are we on Brexit?
May. 6th, 2019 08:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
andrewduckerIt's been a while since we had one of these, and I wanted to get my thoughts in order.
The local elections last week _should_ have sent a solid message. But, of course, Corbyn and May are saying that the message it sent was "More Brexit Please". However, they've still not got any chance of getting a deal over the line.
Labour won't accept a Brexit deal with the Conservatives without a customs deal of some kind*. And Theresa May agreeing to that would cause at least 100 of her MPs to vote against it.
Meanwhile, two thirds of Labour MPs are saying they won't vote for any Brexit deal which doesn't have a second referendum attached to it.
Plus, of course, the EU have said that all they will edit at this point is the political declaration, the actual withdrawal agreement is sealed.
And if the government decides "The hell with this" and call a general election we end up in a situation like this:
Conservatives: 279
Labour: 268
Liberal Democrats: 29
SNP: 51 (I think, looking at the other numbers)
Which means you'd need Lab+Lib+SNP for a solid majority**. Coalition of Chaos indeed!
*As far as anyone can tell the Labour leadership are still thinking that they can have a customs deal that gives them lots of access to things, but without having to give anything up. As they aren't about to be able to directly negotiate, we're not likely to see their unicorns run into a brick wall.
** Although Labour could aim for a minority government and just dare others to vote against them. Or pick just one of the other two parties to have a formal agreement with.
The local elections last week _should_ have sent a solid message. But, of course, Corbyn and May are saying that the message it sent was "More Brexit Please". However, they've still not got any chance of getting a deal over the line.
Labour won't accept a Brexit deal with the Conservatives without a customs deal of some kind*. And Theresa May agreeing to that would cause at least 100 of her MPs to vote against it.
Meanwhile, two thirds of Labour MPs are saying they won't vote for any Brexit deal which doesn't have a second referendum attached to it.
Plus, of course, the EU have said that all they will edit at this point is the political declaration, the actual withdrawal agreement is sealed.
And if the government decides "The hell with this" and call a general election we end up in a situation like this:
Conservatives: 279
Labour: 268
Liberal Democrats: 29
SNP: 51 (I think, looking at the other numbers)
Which means you'd need Lab+Lib+SNP for a solid majority**. Coalition of Chaos indeed!
*As far as anyone can tell the Labour leadership are still thinking that they can have a customs deal that gives them lots of access to things, but without having to give anything up. As they aren't about to be able to directly negotiate, we're not likely to see their unicorns run into a brick wall.
** Although Labour could aim for a minority government and just dare others to vote against them. Or pick just one of the other two parties to have a formal agreement with.
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Date: 2019-05-06 09:47 am (UTC)The Lib Dems will join a coalition with anyone to get their feet under the table as proved by their previous gig acting as a ventriloquist's dummy for the baby-eating Tories. The SNP, I don't see them getting 50-odd MPs in a GE ever again but they'd want a guarantee for another Independence Referendum from Labour if they held the balance of power.
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Date: 2019-05-06 10:02 am (UTC)Delighted to see them doing badly at the council elections. Hoping they do even worse for MEPs.
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Date: 2019-05-06 12:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-05-06 12:46 pm (UTC)In a ranked system Labour would be my fourth choice. Farage would get nothing.
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Date: 2019-05-06 05:58 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-05-06 05:59 pm (UTC)