andrewducker: (Default)
[personal profile] andrewducker

McDonnell's Economic Plans

Date: 2018-10-31 12:27 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (seven legged spider)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I think McDonnell is eyeing up a significant Kenysian stimulous following a Labour General Election win. If so, this would involve increases in public sector capital expenditure, increases in public sector operating expenditure through expansions of public sector headcount and pay increases, probably increases in transfer payments, such as pensions, welfare and job seekers allowances and *no tax increases for anyone* because it is funded by borrowing. It has to be funded by borrowing in order to be a fiscal expansion.

The totality of that can be plenty enough redistributive or progressive even if part of that is retaining a few individually less than progressive measures such as increases to the top-rate tax thresholds. Public sector workers are usually not well paid. The unemployed are not well paid. Poor people benefit more from well funded public services than the rich as the rich can make their own private provision. Capital expenditure on infrastructure boosts long-term growth rates, creating employment and strengthening the bargaining position of less well paid workers.

But crucially, you don't bring in a tax increase for anyone if you are trying a macro-economic fiscal stimulous.

I'd be interested in his thoughts on endogenous growth theory as the other side of a macro-economic fiscal policy. I expect I can guess as at his views on improving the bargaining power of workers vs capital but I'm not sure where he stands on endogenous growth.

Re: McDonnell's Economic Plans

Date: 2018-10-31 05:43 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
Oh good, thanks. I was wondering about this. I knew you'd know.

Re: McDonnell's Economic Plans

Date: 2018-11-01 11:14 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Well, I'm guessing, but I hope it's an informed guess.

Re: McDonnell's Economic Plans

Date: 2018-11-01 11:15 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
It is unlikely that he is triangulating in a Blairite fashion.

Re: McDonnell's Economic Plans

Date: 2018-11-03 10:12 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Yes, every pound you *transfer* through taxation is a pound unavailable for stimulus.

Deficit spending today represents taxation tomorrow. That later taxation can be more or less progressive. But if you are running a fiscal stimulus you don't want to be undermining it with additional taxation anywhere.

Public spending is inherently redistributive.

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